Afghanistan 'will take 30 years to develop into proper democratic state'

www.telegraph.co.uk

Sir Simon Gass, a British diplomat, said the country has gone through 30 years of disastrous conflict which has destroyed infrastructure and institutions.

"It will take decades to recover from the destruction that was wrought over that period of time," he added.

Referring to a World Bank report about countries emerging from prolonged conflict, Sir Simon said they do not have strong institutions, democratic values, rule of law or lack of corruption.

"Those are not values that can be delivered in a short period of time. Typically they take 30 years or so in countries coming out of conflict," he added.

Sir Simon told the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) in London that we "should not judge Afghanistan by standards we would not expect of many of Afghanistan's neighbours." He said money would be needed to support Afghanistan after the end of the Nato mission in 2014 but that he was "cautiously optimistic" it would be forthcoming despite the "economic challenges" in the West.

Reports have suggested more than £6bn a year will be required but Sir Simon said the sums needed will be "very much smaller" than at present.

"Were Afghanistan to slip back into chaos, which I do not predict, the cost to our governments in terms of the increased flow or narcotics and refugees, not to mention the constant instability in one of the most sensitive parts of the world, would be very costly for all of us," he said.

Sir Simon said that 352,000 Afghan Security Forces would be left in place but added that would be a "high water mark" and funding might not remain for that number.

"The transition is unlikely to be easy, there will be days when it is very messy, we will no doubt face setback along the road but I am convinced it is the right direction to go in and I think by the end of 2014, the Afghan security forces will be capable of maintaining security in Afghanistan," he said.

"That doesn't meant there won't be violence in places, undoubtedly if there is no political settlement there will be violence, the point is that it will not be of a sort that can threaten the government of Afghanistan."

He said that 2011 was "not a good year for the insurgents" who had failed to take part areas of the south as they had planned.

"They conspicuously failed," he added, "They are a resilient and vigorous enemy, but the momentum they built up a few years ago is no longer there."

But he warned: "Of course there are still a lot of variables in terms of how the campaign will turn out."

Sir Simon admitted that the picture was "very different" in the east of the country "more work" needed to be done there.

The senior diplomat said that a political solution was necessary because there would be no "military knockout blow" to end the insurgency.

But he said there were still doubts about whether the plan, announced by the Taliban last month, to open an office in Qatar in the Middle East, in order to conduct negotiations, would come to fruition.

"This year will be another tough year, undoubtedly. That is why we still need our forces in Afghanistan because there is still more work to be done," he added.