President Hamid Karzai’s trip to New Delhi............The eye of the storm

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Afghan President Hamid Karzai’s recent trip to New Delhi and the forging of a new ‘strategic pact’ was bound to escalate tensions with Pakistan.
In fact, the India trip was thought by many to give an obvious signal of the strategic alternatives Kabul was looking at in lieu of its deteriorating relations with Islamabad. However, roping in India in a larger role in the future may also cause further instability in Afghanistan, given Pakistan’s significant influence in ongoing negotiations with insurgents and in the political process following the withdrawal of the Coalition forces. This is why President Karzai has hastened to reassure Pakistan that relations will not be affected despite the new dimension in ties with India. While Karzai’s words may have stemmed from the need to calm the political storm blowing across the region following Afghan peace envoy Barhanuddin Rabbani’s assassination, the only signal Islamabad is likely to read at this juncture is a reshaping of strategic alliances with New Delhi.

Kabul has clearly chosen to strengthen relations with India, that too on the strategic front and this is likely to have a significant impact in moulding a changed security and political dynamic in South Asia. Pakistan has long held Afghanistan as a key state in line with its strategic depth doctrine and has supported regimes more partial towards Islamabad. Likewise for India, that has extended support to other Afghan groups such as the Northern Alliance to neutralise Pakistan’s influence. The rules of realpolitick naturally dictated forging alliances and consolidating influences. With Pakistan out of favour with both Washington and Kabul at present over its alleged sponsorship of the Haqqani network and possible involvement in Rabbani’s assassination — a charge vehemently denied and demanded evidence for, by Islamabad — India will naturally make inroads in widening its ‘development’ role into a far significant presence.

Who Kabul chooses to tango with is however important. Any strategic decisions taken in the midst of conflict might backfire especially when Karzai has stressed on a political solution for the insurgency. Alienating Pakistan is not the answer. Actually, the mistrust shared between the three states is the crux of the problem. While Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has said that a stable Pakistan is in India’s favour, more needs to be done in terms of confidence building between the two states. Kabul should also pursue diplomacy and present Pakistan with proof for any charges. It must bear in mind that peace and stability is not achievable in an environment where allegations and proxy fights thrive.