Thursday, March 10, 2011

Saudis pessimistic about 'Day of rage'

Online activists have vowed to hold a "Day of Rage" in Saudi Arabia, similar to those seen throughout the Arab world. But a number of Saudis say there is more to lose than gain in protesting.




Mohammed, a 32-year-old resident of Jeddah who wished to use his first name only, said that the demands of the protesters for greater government accountability and transparency are "perfectly legitimate."

A Facebook group calling for a Saudi "Day of Rage" has nearly 33,000 followers. The group said the protest is mostly aimed at demanding political reforms, the release of political prisoners, more employment opportunities, and greater freedoms.

"A sense of frustration is pervasive," said Mohamed.

Saudi Arabia, which is home to Islam's holiest site in Mecca, is the world's largest crude oil exporter.

However, nearly 40 per cent of Saudis aged 20 to 24 are unemployed and many have argued that the kingdom's expansive oil wealth has remained concentrated in the hands of the royal circle.

Just last month, King King Abdullah bin Abdul Aziz looked to woo Saudis with a promise of 36 billion dollars in benefits, which included a 15-per-cent salary raise for public employees and financial aid for students and the unemployed.

Heavy hand feared

Despite the financial handout and signs that the government may be subtly trying to win over frustrated youth, Mohammed told the German Press Agency dpa that he will not protest, because he believes the government's response will be heavy-handed.

"The government sees this as a direct threat to its rule and I will not risk everything to protest for a thing like ending corruption, for example, when they see me as a threat worthy of murder," he said.

"I think most people feel they have too much to lose in a highly rigged fight," he added.

The Interior Ministry posted on its website that "security forces are lawfully authorized to take all necessary actions against whoever tries to violate the law in any way and will be subject to the full force of the relevant regulations."

Sultan, a Saudi graduate student in the United States who also wished not to be named in full, told dpa he doubts there will be a large turnout in Friday's protests because people are expecting the government to respond "harshly."

"They already started to investigate bloggers, social and political activists, and some people who signed petitions addressed to the king," said Sultan.

Brutality

Recently, Saudi women who were protesting in the eastern part of the kingdom were arrested after a ban was issued on all kinds of demonstrations.

They were reportedly beaten before they were detained.

The women were part of a series of protests that have taken place in recent weeks by the kingdom's Shiite minority calling for equal rights.

Shiite cleric Tawfiq al-Amer was himself briefly detained after calling for a constitutional monarchy and equal rights for minority Shiites, who make up between 10 and 15 percent of the Saudi population and are concentrated in the Eastern Province.

Revolts by Shiites in neighbouring Bahrain have unnerved the conservative Sunni authorities in Saudi Arabia, who warned that foreign interference from Shiite-led Iran would not be tolerated.

Foreign Minister Prince Saud Al-Faisal said this week that the kingdom would "cut off the fingers of those who try to interfere in our internal matters and we reject dictates from any foreign party," suggesting that calls for protests were being dictated externally.

"Saudi Arabia has prohibited demonstrations as it goes against the country's law," added al-Faisal in his remarks to the press.

Bad faith

To support its ban on protests, the government recently obtained a religious edict, or fatwa, saying that protests are prohibited in Islam.

"So long as the religious institutions continue to contribute to the public dogmatic understanding about basic rights by their religious edicts and the Ministry of Interior keeps violating (the rights of) anyone who talks about political reform loudly by jail or constraints, it will be difficult to achieve a radical change that assert people's demands," said Sultan.

A 2010 Human Rights Watch (HRW) report found that vested interests by power groups, such as the business community and the religious establishment, weigh heavily on both judicial and educational matters.

Moreover, the feeling among several young, educated Saudis interviewed in recent days is that there is a very high possibility that the country could regress into a system of more tribalism and fewer personal freedoms if a truly representative political system were in place.

The reason, some argue, is that King Abdullah himself has faced opposition from the religious establishment and leading opinion makers to incremental, marginal reforms aimed at liberalizing society in recent years.

According to the HRW report, King Abdullah has succeeded in promoting the acceptance of reforms that would modernize Saudi Arabia's state apparatus, making it more efficient and somewhat more transparent and has encouraged respectful dissent, but within limits.

"However, the obstacles to reform nevertheless remain formidable," according to HRW.

A mother of three who lives in Saudi Arabia, who wished to remain anonymous, expressed a similarly pessimistic view.

"I don't think our country is ready for this type of expression and it will be squashed," she told dpa.

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