Saudi Arabia's capital was quiet on Friday ahead of a planned day of demonstrations that will test whether activists calling for reform online will succeed in taking their protests to the streets.
A loose coalition of liberals, rights activists, moderate Sunni Islamists and Shi'ite Muslims has called for political reform and a Facebook page calling for demonstrations attracted more than 30,000 supporters, but protests are strictly forbidden in the conservative kingdom.
The government made those views clear late on Thursday, when police dispersed protests in the eastern province town of Qatif. Shots were heard from where the demonstration of about 200 people in the oil-rich region's Shi'ite minority were gathered.
Police cars toured the streets of Riyadh early on Friday, raising the security presence ahead of the planned protests.
"The fact the Saudi regime is making a big deal of is suggests that it may be a big deal ... If the first kind of explicitly pro-democracy protests happen (on Friday) that sets a precedent and we'll probably see more pro-democracy protests," said Shadi Hamid, of the Brookings Centre in Doha.
"Even if its 200 or 300 that is still, by Saudi standards, a big deal and something to worry about."
A diplomat in the Gulf region said protests were not expected to evolve into a mass demonstration on Friday and the Saudi government would respond through non-lethal means.
AID FOR GULF PARTNERS
On Thursday, foreign ministers from Gulf Arab oil producers unveiled a $20 billion aid package for Bahrain and Oman, both of which are facing anti-government protests, emphasising the nervousness felt by the region's rulers over spreading social unrest.
Protests were also planned in other Gulf countries such as Yemen, Kuwait and Bahrain on Friday, which falls on the weekend.
The time after Friday prayers has proved to be crucial in popular uprisings that have brought down Tunisian and Egyptian rulers who once seemed invulnerable.
The world's biggest oil exporter has made it clear it will not tolerate any protests or political parties, which are seen as unnecessary in an Islamic state applying sharia (Islamic law).
A note by political risk analysts at Eurasia Group said that, unlike unrest that has rocked other autocratic Arab leaders' rule, Saudi protests calling only for reform were currently less of a threat to the kingdom's stability.
"They are appealing to the king, not demanding his departure. Thus, while there may be some unrest tomorrow, it will not threaten al Saud in the short term -- but things could get complicated if Saudi security forces overreact."
Eurasia Group also said Shi'ite protesters were unlikely to try and sabotage energy infrastructure.
Saudi Arabia is home to Islam's holiest sites and a long-time U.S. ally which has ensured oil supplies for the West.
In a sign that Riyadh was keen to address brewing discontent, ruler King Abdullah unveiled benefits for Saudis worth about $36 billion last month when he returned from three months of medical treatment abroad.
Other Gulf rulers have offered political concessions or paid out billions to help ease the pain of rising food prices and unemployment. Until recently, many had expected the region to avoid the massive uprisings seen in North Africa.
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