Afghanistan faces prospect of serious drought in 2011 Millions already rely on global food aid

Afghanistan could face a serious drought in 2011 that would make millions of poor go hungry and fuel instability as foreign troops seek to reverse surging violence in the battle against the Taliban.

Low rainfall early in the wet season will likely threaten Afghanistan's irrigated harvest, forecasts show, which with a surge in global grain prices could be devastating for a nation already ranked as having the world's worst food security. Officials are concerned drought, which could be averted if rain and snow fall heavily in coming weeks, could further destabilize Afghanistan as Washington races to prove it can turn back a tenacious Taliban before an initial withdrawal in July.

"Many Afghans live right on the edge of starvation and without necessary water there will be communities that will be on the move, seeking pasture and agricultural work in other areas," a senior U.S. defence official said on condition of anonymity.

"That has potential to put pressure on society ... While who sends the rain has nothing to do with your politics, the Taliban can say the government is not providing for (them)," he said. Afghanistan's population is about 30 million. Afghanistan needs about 5.2 million tonnes of wheat, the staple crop, a year. This year, the agriculture minister says the country will need to import, or receive donations, to cover about a fifth of that amount. Once an important regional producer of raisins and other fruit, Afghanistan watched its vineyards become minefields during years of war.

While a surge in U.S. troops last year helped drive Taliban fighters out of parts of southern Afghanistan, violence in 2010 hit its highest level since the Taliban government was toppled and militants are taking the fight to once-quiet areas. The bloodshed has turned Afghans like Khayatullah, a father of seven who abandoned his tiny farm in Ghazni province over a year ago, into refugees even less able to feed themselves.

Khayatullah, who earns $3 to $4 a day when he can find work as a day labourer in the capital Kabul, stands in the freezing mud along with dozens of others queuing for a 50-kilogram bag of wheat WFP provides him once a month during winter and early spring.

"I'd go back to Ghazni if there was work and security," said Khayatullah, wrapped in a worn blanket against the winter cold. "But I don't think that's going to happen any time soon."

Food prices here can also spike locally due to the violence, which makes transport more risky and more expensive. Yet there is time for things to turn around. Mohammad Asif Rahimi, Afghanistan's agriculture minister, said it was too early to say what the impact of poor early rains would be on harvests.