Mubarak`s chances

EVEN if Hosni Mubarak is able to survive the current countrywide rage, it is doubtful that things will remain the same for him and for Egypt. The dissolution of the cabinet has done little to calm violent protesters. They are expressing their anger not just against the president; they seem to reject the system in its entirety. No matter who he inducts into the new cabinet, they will be perceived to be collaborators and rejected by those now engaged in running battles with the security forces. What Mr Mubarak offered in his late night address was perhaps too little and too late. He spoke of `reforms` and offered to negotiate — but with whom? The most terrifying aspect of the popular revolt is the absence of a leader. Mohammad ElBaradei is hardly the man who could lead what is a spontaneous outburst of the people`s anger, triggered by Mr Ben Ali`s flight from Tunis. Mr Mubarak`s authoritarianism has given the Egyptian people neither economic opportunities nor a say in governance. What Egypt has witnessed in popular discontent is unprecedented. There were food riots in 2008, but the government managed to control them. Today, it is the urban middle class which is revolting against a system that doesn`t believe in accountability.

As always, Mr Mubarak`s foreign friends are either watching the situation with fingers crossed or have already tilted to the people`s side. Even though President Barack Obama walked a tightrope, the implications of his speech must be disturbing for the Egyptian president. While he urged Mr Mubarak to deliver on his promises, and asked the crowds to express themselves peacefully, he also told his friend that “violence will not address the grievances of the Egyptian people”.

For Egyptians, foreign advice is of no consequence. Ultimately, it is Mr Mubarak`s ability to defuse the people`s fury that will matter, because the demonstrations are gaining in intensity. The shockingly low turn-out in the last parliamentary election seems to indicate the people have lost faith in the kind of `demo- cracy` that was on offer. Mr Mubarak has also indicated he will take part in the presidential election for a sixth term, and this has served in no small measure to fuel popular anger. So far the army has obeyed orders, and even though like the ruling elite it welcomes America`s average $2bn annual dole-out, it is widely believed the generals dislike the president`s son, Gamal. If the demonstrations continue to spread in intensity, we are not sure how long the army will continue to support what may appear to many as a tottering regime.