Allies Ponder How to Plan Elections in Afghanistan

KABUL, Afghanistan — Inside the office of the Afghan interior minister is a map showing that nearly half the country is a danger zone. Ten of Afghanistan’s 364 districts are colored black, meaning they are under Taliban control, and 156 are colored to indicate high risk.

The map raises a difficult question: How, in such an environment, can Afghanistan hold countrywide presidential elections in less than five months?

The election, plus votes for provincial council seats, has become a prime focus of discussion, according to Richard C. Holbrooke, the special envoy to Afghanistan and Pakistan, and Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, who visited Kabul last Sunday.

For now, Afghan officials and their American and NATO allies say they are absolutely determined to go ahead with the elections, scheduled for Aug. 20. Canceling or postponing them not only would be a significant recognition of how badly the war is going, but also would throw the country into a political and constitutional crisis.

At the same time, there is increasing concern that, even if NATO and Afghan forces can establish enough security in enough places, the vote will be so badly compromised that its credibility will be called into question, and with it the legitimacy of the current and future Afghan governments.

Taliban insurgents have such a strong grip on such a broad area — in particular the southern provinces of Kandahar, Helmand, Oruzgan and Zabul — that even with the anticipated arrival of an additional 30,000 American troops this year, the elections will not take place in some areas, several Western and Afghan officials in Kabul said.

“There will certainly be some districts where it will be difficult to have elections, especially parts of Helmand Province,” said Christopher Alexander, a deputy head of the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan.

“But the vast majority of districts, all but 8 or 10, took part in voter registration and are expected to take part in elections,” he added.

In interviews, some Afghans were less sure. They predicted that people were so disaffected by the war and the insecurity and the lack of progress from the government that many would not vote.

Opposition candidates, meanwhile, are already expressing concern about fraud and are pointing to widespread irregularities in the voter registration.

The recently appointed interior minister, Hanif Atmar, readily acknowledges the herculean challenge of getting his underpaid, poorly trained police force in shape to provide security for the elections.

Additional NATO troops and the added American forces will be deployed with Afghan security forces to the high-risk areas, he said, meaning virtually everywhere south of the capital, Kabul, in a country of mountains and deserts. Afghan forces will handle the safer northern areas largely on their own, he said.

But beyond providing security for elections, the American, NATO and Afghan security forces also have a broader mission: to stem the insurgency, which has sharply escalated in scale and casualties every year since 2006.

Some Western officials in Afghanistan warn that the extra American and NATO forces are too little, too late to change the military stalemate that exists across southern Afghanistan, and that all the military effort will be spent in securing the elections.

Admiral Mullen said that would not be the case. “I am convinced that the additional military capability will certainly start to allow us to turn the tide” in the war, the admiral said during his visit.

While election officials say voter registration has been successful, people in the south say Afghans, including Taliban members, were motivated to register less by any real interest in voting than by the fact that voter cards would ease their travel through government checkpoints.

“People cannot even travel to their homes,” said Abdul Rahim, 32, a landowner from Oruzgan Province, who moved his family to the provincial capital, Tirin Kot, to escape the fighting. “It’s beyond imagination that they will take part in the election.”

Whether the Taliban will try to sabotage the vote is not yet clear. In their statements, Taliban spokesmen say they oppose the presidential elections as a system imposed by foreigners.

But in previous years the Taliban have held back from large-scale disruption of elections, partly because of pressure from their mentors in Pakistan, and partly, analysts say, so as not to alienate the people, who are their base of support.

Nevertheless, the Taliban will be determined to respond to any influx of new American forces. Recent attacks by insurgents and Al Qaeda have indicated a growing sophistication and ambition, including spectacular bombings and wave attacks by multiple gunmen on government buildings. Those are likely to continue, Afghan officials said.

The strength of the insurgency and the distrust of the Afghan government is rapidly causing a collapse of authority in the many regions, warned a former foreign minister, Dr. Abdullah, who is expected to be named as the candidate for the main opposition movement, the National Front, which represents a broad bloc of largely northern tribes.

Dr. Abdullah, who uses one name, said the situation would continue to deteriorate under President Hamid Karzai, leaving an even more difficult task for the next president.

Mr. Karzai’s administration has grown increasingly unpopular and is seen as corrupt and ineffective as the war has engulfed half the country. There is a growing yearning among Afghans for a change.

But diplomats say Mr. Karzai remains the strongest contender, not least because the opposition is divided and may split any vote against him. Also, the most likely contenders may not be an improvement, some warn.

“Beware what you wish for,” said one diplomat, who requested anonymity to avoid the impression of interfering in Afghanistan’s election politics.

The National Front continues to question Mr. Karzai’s legitimacy after a Supreme Court decision that allowed him to extend his term past its constitutional end on May 21 because the presidential election was delayed. The court will let him stay in office until a new president is sworn in, and in a close race, that could include a second round of voting in October.

Almost all the known candidates complain of fears that Mr. Karzai will use government resources to his advantage in the campaign.

“We can say straight off that 600,000 to 800,000 votes will be stolen,” said Ashraf Ghani, a former finance minister and a prospective candidate. Mr. Ghani called for a commission to monitor the election commission and one to monitor the president’s use of government resources and institutions.

But Mr. Karzai’s opponents say the groundswell of dissatisfaction among the public and the desire for change may be enough to dislodge him, if the election is fair.

“Everybody is complaining, everybody is concerned, and everybody is unhappy with the situation,” said Nasrullah Baryalai Arsalai, who is from a prominent family in eastern Afghanistan and recently announced his candidacy. “But a free vote makes me think it is possible.”