ISLAMABAD, March 31- Two high profile guerrilla attacks in Lahore in the space of a month have heightened fears of Islamist militancy engulfing Pakistan, despite U.S. promises of support for the year-old civilian government.
The assault by gunmen on a police academy in Lahore on Monday and another on the Sri Lankan cricket team in the city four weeks earlier brought home the depth of insecurity in Pakistan, while television channels carried the images worldwide.
"The government and the military are facing a crisis of credibility," said Ahmed Rashid, author of "Descent into Chaos", a book chronicling Pakistan's slide into the grip of militant religious extremists.
"There is no strategic plan or vision over how to deal with extremism and terrorism."
Nuclear-armed, and a hiding place for al Qaeda, Pakistan has become a foreign policy nightmare for the United States and other allies in the West.
U.S. President Barack Obama unveiled last Friday results of a strategy review for Pakistan and Afghanistan that made the annihilation of al Qaeda the principle objective.
A centrepiece of Obama's approach to Pakistan was the promise of billions of dollars in aid to help build state institutions, and improve the social and economic welfare to give people faith in President Asif Ali Zardari's civilian government.
The Pakistanis need all the help they can get.
"This incident definitely raises very serious questions about the capacity of our intelligence agencies and security apparatus to deal with these groups," Lahore-based security analyst Hasan Askari Rizvi said after the attack on the police academy.
Al QAEDA'S FRIENDS
Pakistan's leaders know al Qaeda is encouraging a Taliban insurgency in Pakistani tribal lands bordering Afghanistan, and seeking to destabilise the Muslim nation of 170 million people.
Pakistani Taliban leader Baitullah Mehsud, an al Qaeda ally based in the South Waziristan tribal region, claimed responsibility on Tuesday for the assault on the police school, which killed eight cadets. [nISL457124]
Suspicion fell on a Punjabi-based group called Lashkar-e-Jhangvi for the earlier attack on the Sri Lankans, but the file is still open.
Several other Pakistani militant groups, including Lashkar-e-Taiba, the group blamed for that attack on the Indian city of Mumbai last November, have fallen under al Qaeda's spell.
"Pakistan is the last bastion of hope for you all against terrorists and extremists. Don't undermine us," a senior Pakistani official, who requested anonymity because of the sensitivity of his role, warned Western allies.
"Don't help us with tranches, come in a big way."
Money will help tackle the roots of militancy, but a generation may have to pass before it pays off.
Yet Pakistan is already under siege from militants and Obama revealed little of how the United States would help the country conquer its demons.
Instead, U.S. military commanders have made public accusations that Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) has maintained ties with groups close to al Qaeda and the Taliban.
"There has been a surge in allegations. Some of things they say undermine us," the senior Pakistani official told Reuters.
"It won't help by blaming or marginalising the ISI. It might make things worse."
Pakistan denies ISI duplicity. Officials privately say having contact with militants goes with the territory for field agents. "There has to be a degree of ingress by all intelligence agencies in (militant) organisations, be they good or bad," said the Pakistani official, noting past disengagement from such groups had reduced the ability to monitor their activities.
U.S. PLAIN SPEAKING, PAKISTANI CONCERNS
Obama clearly wants to confront suspected Pakistani double-dealing openly rather than privately as the Bush Administration did.
But he can't risk alienating an ally whose support is crucial to the West's success in Afghanistan and against al Qaeda.
Ahmed Rashid welcomed the plain speaking coming out of Washington, while counselling against going too far. "This is not a time to be talking about threats, sanctions or anything like that," Rashid said.
"I think it's advisable that the Americans engage with the military and political leadership in the country in a transparent way, and make that message that they're delivering very clear."
Openness in dealing with the United States is a luxury many Pakistani officials believe they can ill-afford given the degree of anti-American sentiment in the country.
They also complain their U.S. ally has taken too little heed of Pakistani security concerns in Afghanistan and India, and fear of potential encirclement by two hostile neighbours.
The Pakistani official, however, believed there had been a fresh appreciation of Pakistan's compulsions, and understanding that U.S. assurances about India's intentions were insufficient.
"I think there is a realisation in the United States and other Western powers that they have to consider Pakistan's security concerns," he said.
Pakistan knows the gravity of the internal threat but its army would be uncomfortable taking troops away from the eastern border with India, until India changes its posture and there are stronger signs disputes over Kashmir and water resources will be resolved
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