Thursday, February 5, 2009

Moscow Moves to Counter U.S. Power in Central Asia




MOSCOW -- Russia is reasserting its role in Central Asia with a Kremlin push to eject the U.S. from a vital air base and a Moscow-led pact to form an international military force to rival NATO -- two moves that potentially complicate the new U.S. war strategy in Afghanistan.

On Wednesday, Russia announced a financial rescue fund for a group of ex-Soviet allies and won their agreement to form a military rapid reaction force in the region that it said would match North Atlantic Treaty Organization standards. That came a day after Kyrgyzstan announced, at Russian urging, that it planned to evict the U.S. from the base it has used to ferry large numbers of American troops into Afghanistan. Russia said the base may house part of the planned new force instead.

The steps mark Russia's most aggressive push yet to counter a U.S. military presence in the region that it has long resented. They pose a challenge for the administration of President Barack Obama, which sees Afghanistan as its top foreign-policy priority and is preparing to double the size of the American military presence there.

The developments also underscore the difficulties for Mr. Obama as he seeks to build a closer relationship with Moscow. Russia is signaling that it will be a tough defender of its interests, especially in its traditional backyard of the former Soviet Union. Though its huge cash reserves are rapidly draining because of falling oil prices, the greater needs of its poorer neighbors are still giving it an opening.

"Russia would like to reassert itself in the region, and it is using the financial crisis as an opportunity," said Nikolai Zlobin, senior fellow at the World Security Institute, a Washington think tank.

Russian paratroopers are to form the core of the new military force, which is planned to be about 10,000 men. Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said the force will be ready "to rebuff military aggression," fight terrorism, drug trafficking and organized crime, and handle natural and technological disasters.

"These are going to be quite formidable units," Mr. Medvedev said. "According to their combat potential, they must be no weaker than similar forces of the North Atlantic alliance."

When Kyrgyzstan said Tuesday that it intended to shut the base to U.S. troops, Moscow announced that it was extending the country $2 billion in loans plus $150 million in financial aid. That's a tidal wave of cash for Kyrgyzstan, whose budget is barely more than $1 billion, and whose populace has been harried by electric shortages, rising food prices and rampant unemployment.

The Kremlin also is discussing aid packages to Armenia and Belarus, other former satellites hit hard by the financial crisis.

The seriousness of the Kyrygz push to close the Manas air base stunned Pentagon officials, who noted Bishkek had made similar threats before. "Frankly, we thought it was a negotiating tactic, and we were ready to call their bluff," said a military official. "But it's becoming clearer that, no kidding, they want us out."

U.S. officials now say they expect the Kyrgyz parliament to formally approve ending the deal this weekend, which would give the U.S. six months to vacate under the countries' agreement.

The loss of the Manas base would be a major blow to the escalating U.S. war effort in Afghanistan. In 2008, 170,000 American personnel passed through Manas on their way in or out of Afghanistan, along with 5,000 tons of equipment.

"We have contingencies, and it's not fatal, but there's no way around the fact that this would be a real blow," said a senior Pentagon official. "It could also leave us more dependent on Russia, which is not a place we'd like to be."

The main U.S. supply route into Afghanistan runs through Pakistan, and militants have mounted a wave of attacks recently designed to prevent goods from entering Afghanistan. This week, militants demolished a key bridge on the route, forcing the U.S. to temporarily halt all shipments through Pakistan.

With Pakistan increasingly tenuous, U.S. officials have had to turn to Russia for help. The U.S. already ships large quantities of fuel through Russia, and senior military officials hope to start sending more supplies.

The Kremlin has long criticized the U.S. for maintaining bases in Central Asia, saying Washington initially promised a temporary move after the terrorist attacks of 2001.

On Wednesday Russia stressed that it supports the U.S.-led effort in Afghanistan, but that Washington needs to work more closely with Moscow and Central Asian countries.

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