Pakistan - Yemen - Hard Choices

Over the past week, Pakistani intelligentsia and large portions of civil society have unanimously made it clear that the people of Pakistan do not want to be part of another war. There is a consensus that such a war will severely damage our effectiveness against local militants and exacerbate sectarian conflict. The government has been told: Pakistan must choose neutrality. The high-powered government delegation that left for Riyadh to negotiate Pakistan’s role in the Yemen crisis is certainly empowered to make that choice; the Defence Minister, Advisor to the Prime Minister on Foreign Affairs and National Security, several senior officials from the Foreign Office and three representatives of the armed forces take part. But has the choice already been made for them?
While the state still maintains that it is undecided on the matter of intervention in Yemen, objectively it seems the state, especially Nawaz’s government will find it impossible to ignore the Kingdom’s request. Along with historically close ties between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, Nawaz Sharif’s government has often relied on the Saudis for support and they would expect the same from him. How the premier will convince the rest of the government, including the military, remains to be seen?
Will he take the parliament’s consent before making the decision?

Will the military go along?

Even if the government chooses to join the Arab Coalition – which unfortunately seems like the most probable result – it must keep its involvement to the barest minimum. Providing the Kingdom logistical support, akin to what the United States is doing, and giving assurance that Saudi Arabia’s territorial borders will be protected would be reasonable compromise. Perhaps such an indirect method of support would not be seen as a divisive factor in the local sectarian tussle. Iran, whose foreign ministry contacted Pakistan’s ambassador in Tehran to propose talks with the government over rumours that it is set to join the coalition – and to convey warnings crouched in diplomatic talk, might also see such limited support as grudgingly acceptable. This would allow the government to maintain its relationship with Iran and prevent sectarian violence from escalating. Anything more, from air strikes to sending ground troops to physically enter Yemen, would be the wrong move, which would inevitably suck Pakistan into a war that is not its own.