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War is a Big Business…

Syed Sohail Ahmad

Neoconservatives’ policy of promoting democracy by strength, military intervention, and change of regime idea has come a full circle.

The Vietnam war to prevent the communist victory, reshaping the Middle East with the invasion of Iraq, Libya and Syria, and promoting democratic values in a tribal society like Afghanistan has floundered but not without a colossal financial and human cost.

President Eisenhower in his farewell address in 1961, warned the nation of what he viewed as its biggest threat–The military-industrial complex consisting of contractors and lobbyists perpetuating war.

War is a big business with lots of money going to and fro and unfortunately with a lot of angst, a lot of fear and lots of doubt. (Jon Anderson).

The first World War was fought at an estimated cost of 208 billion dollars and caused the greatest economic depression of the twentieth century. The second World War cost nearly 4 trillion dollars. War-related production skyrocketing from 2 to 40 percent of the total GNP.

War is not only about one country’s military invading another country, it’s about logistics, arms and ammunition, constant supply of them, airpower, navy, missiles, unmanned aerial vehicles and aircrafts. It is about the intelligence network and surveillance satellites.

To sustain one’s presence on the ground one needs accommodation, food, and medical supplies. Bagram base is an example of it. It has two runways and cost nearly a billion dollars.

The treatment and rehabilitation of injured soldiers, both physical and psychological, further cost millions of dollars.

War is not just about the military, but also about private contractors. The role of Blackwaters in Afghanistan and Iraq, and Russia’s Wagener’s group in Libya is well known. This outsourcing of the military and security function has been a recent phenomenon and costs the exchequer a fortune.

The Vietnam War, the post 9/11 invasion of the Middle East and Afghanistan, brought a lot of instability and Misery to the regions.

The question is, has it brought any progress or development in the society or the country where the coalition of the willing has invaded. Did liberation by invasion bear fruit. Did it promote democratic values, and has it improved the quality of life of the general masses in the region? The answer is NO, and a big NO!

Questions arise, whether without knowing the history, culture, and traditions of a particular region which is known as the graveyard of the empires and without the knowledge about the level to which a society has evolved, …will imposing the values and norms of a developed society results in the betterment of that society?

Looking into Iraqi society, we see that the Sunni minority has been ruling the country with a dictator, who for his own ambitions fought an 8-year long war with Iran. His intention was to control Shate Al Arab waterway, to seize Khuzestan, an oil-rich province and was fully supported by the Western powers and the USA.

The dismantling of the ruling Baath party in Iraq with secular roots, on allegations of possession of weapons of mass destruction, and having links with Al-Qaida, both of which were proved false later, resulted in total chaos in the region. It also resulted in the rise of the crescent for the first time in Islamic history.

Analyzing the fabric of the Afghan society, we see that 22% of the population is urban and 78% lives in rural areas. 42 % Push toons live on both sides of Durand. 28% of Tajiks live in the northeastern region. Uzbeks 9%in the northern region. Hazaras 9%in Central Afghanistan in the Hazarajat area. Baloch’s 2% and Turkmens 3%.

Imposing a marionette government with no connection to the masses, in Afghanistan, but had to fail. The first president was a man, who worked for an American oil company UNOCAL. The second president was an employee of the World Bank. How could either connect to a tribal society! The outcome was that, when Taliban takeover was imminent, the finance minister took off and went to the USA. The information minister opted to be a delivery boy in Germany and the President of the country flew to the land of his safety, leaving behind a human catastrophe that the whole world is watching.

The Iran-Iraq war cost 350 billion dollars along with one million people dead, one and a half million injured, and two million people rendered homeless.

The first ten days in the Libyan War cost the administration nearly 550 million dollars.

The Watson Institute of International and Public Affairs, in Brown University, regarding the cost of wars, reports:

The war in Afghanistan cost 2.26 trillion dollars to the USA from 2001 till now, which is nearly 300 million dollars every day for 20 years. By 2050 this will be nearly 6.5 trillion dollars. That amounts to 20,000 US dollars for every US citizen. It includes 800 million dollars in direct warfighting cost and 85 billion in training the Afghan army. Not only this, the US taxpayers were paying 750 million dollars for the payroll annually. The biggest chunk, 1.1 trillion went to overseas contingency operation under the department of defense, and nearly 530 billion dollars on the interest of the loans borrowed by the US government to finance the war.

Another study by the cost of war project post 9/11 by Pradee and Watson Institute of Brown University, also reported nearly 6 trillion dollars plus expenditure.

Yet only a very small amount was spent on human resource development, education, health infrastructure, power generation, and roads. Very recently, President Ashraf Ghani said that 90 percent of the Afghans are living on 2 dollars per day.

The human cost is also high with 2,500 US soldiers and 4,000 civilian contractors killed. To take care of 20,000 US casualties will cost another 300 billion US dollars.

If we look at the civilian casualties, it amounts to 111,000 since the United Nations assistance mission in Afghanistan started recording in 2009.

Another report suggests 69,000 Afghan military police officials, 47,000 civilians, 51,000 opposition fighters were killed, though the actual figures could be much higher.

Other than all the people who have been killed, a large number have been displaced, having to take refuge in the neighboring countries. People incurring disabilities, being caught in the Crossfire, collateral damage, aerial bombardment, victims of IED (improvised explosive device), and the loss of male family members who are the breadwinners of a family in a tribal society has led to a total collapse of the family structure and the loss of hope for a better future. This does not account for post-traumatic stress disorders and psychological illnesses.

Global arm expenditures rose to 1981 billion dollars in 2020 an increase of nearly 2.6 % than the previous year at this time of the pandemic. The United States is the biggest spender on defense with 778 billion dollars in 2020 with China 252, India, 72.9, Russia 61, and UK 59.2 billion dollars

United States is the world’s largest exporter of arms with 37% of the share of the global arms market, Russia 20%, France 8.2%, Germany 5.5%, and China 5.2% (SIPRI Stockholm International Peace Research Institute).

The military-industrial complex thrives on war. War, as the saying goes, makes a select few richer. The United States is home to five of the ten World’s largest defense companies.

Lockheed Martin is the biggest defense manufacturers and contractor. Then there’s Boeing, Raytheon, General Dynamics, Raythorp Grumman, BAE systems.

These companies have benefited immensely from the expansion in the military budget, which is the largest in the world. War on terror military intervention in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, and Syria has made this a very profitable business. It supports and creates millions of jobs in America. According to a report by SIPRI, arms sales grew by 51% by 2011. Not only this, Halliburton with Dick Cheney as its CEO, gained 39.5 billion dollars of federal contracts during the middle-eastern war.

Involvement in foreign lands involves military, civilian contractors, intelligence operatives, arms manufacturers, companies involved in logistics, food, the housing of personnel, paychecks, careers, pensions, and lots of misappropriation of unaccounted funds, and it benefits the military-industrial complex.

War is a big business.

References

1. Cost of war Watson Institute of International and Public affairs Brown University.
2. New research from the cost of wars project post 9/11 Frederick. S Pradee Centre and Brown University Watson Institute of International and Public affairs
3. Cost of war now and then Norwich University study

https://en.humsub.com.pk/3098/war-is-a-big-business/

The Pakistan Connection: How ISKP Became Islamabad’s Latest Proxy

By Abhinav Pandya

Pakistan’s double game of keeping up the pretense of being a U.S. ally against terror while sheltering, funding, and training terrorist groups with U.S. aid money is likely to continue.

The Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) claimed the Kabul explosions that killed more than 100 people, including thirteen U.S. marines. Following the attack, ISKP, hitherto a second fiddle in the Afghan conflict theatre, emerged as a new target of the global war on terror and is providing a new rationale for U.S. intervention. Moreover, it is leading some to have a rosier view of the Pakistan-backed Taliban, which are now being viewed as a counterweight to ISIS.

However, ISKP is also a Pakistani proxy that is thriving under Islamabad’s patronage. Most of ISKP’s cadres include disgruntled elements from the Taliban, Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan, and Pakistan’s other proxy groups like Jaish-e-Muhammad (JeM) and Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT). The rest include foreign fighters from Uzbekistan, Kerala (India), etc.

In the Afghanistan-Pakistan region, there are numerous heavyweight proxies that are supported by the Pakistani Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) like the Haqqani Network (HQN), JeM, LeT, and the Taliban. Given these groups’ presence, it is almost impossible for a new organization to survive without the blessings of the Pakistani Army’s General Headquarters in Rawalpindi. Reportedly, since its formation in 2015, the ISI has infiltrated ISKP with a sizable number of its cadres from LeT, JeM, and HQN.

Since the ISKP and Taliban are competing for recruits, territory, and revenue sources, a lay observer understands that they are sworn enemies. However, the groups have much in common. Ideologically, the Taliban and ISKP are both Sunni extremists aiming for a sharia-ruled Islamic society. Until recently, NATO forces and the Afghan government were their common enemies, and in regard to their brutal treatment of women, non-Muslims, and Shias and Ahmadiyyas religious minorities, the Taliban and ISKP are more or less on the same page.

With Pakistan-sponsored terrorist groups, it is common to overlook ideological differences and work on tactically compromising towards larger objectives. For example, in Kashmir, JeM, a Deobandi terrorist group with generational ties to the Taliban—as the Taliban also subscribes to Deobandi ideology—comfortably works with groups with differing ideologies such as LeT, a Salafi group, and Hizbul Mujahidin, which subscribes to Maulana Maududi’s version of political Islam. Al Qaeda, a Wahhabi outfit, has maintained close ties with the Taliban and affiliated Deobandi groups like JeM and Harkat-ul-Mujahidin. Then, there are marriage and tribal ties between the different groups. Due to these aforementioned reasons, most of these groups are interconnected. Hence, there is no reason to believe that ISKP and the Taliban are sworn enemies due to perceived ideological differences. If some disgruntled individuals deserted the Taliban to join ISKP, it mainly was over leadership clashes, turf wars, and the distribution of financial resources from opium smuggling.

Interviews I had with informed interlocutors in Pakistan suggest that key figures in ISKP have had links with individuals and entities associated with the Pakistani ISI since the group’s inception. Further, this claim was substantiated through my conversations with members of India’s intelligence fraternity. In 2016, they found compelling evidence of Pakistani agencies radicalizing Indian youth from Kerala on ISKP’s behalf. Reportedly, they also assisted them in moving to the ISKP stronghold in the Afghanistan-Pakistan region through third countries.

Ismail Punjabi, an Indian national who is reportedly in charge of ISKP’s foreign fighters, was a LeT cadre before joining ISKP. He worked with LeT between 2003-07 and was involved in planning the Mumbai Taj attack (2008) in which several U.S. citizens were killed. Later, he joined Al Qaeda before transferring to ISKP. He was killed in 2016. Abdul Rahim Muslim Dost, ISKP’s former religious head, was an Afghanistan-based former militant commander and a key member of Kunar-based Salafi group, Jamaat-ul-Dawa-al-Quran, which maintained close ties with LeT.

Huzaifa al-Bakistani, an ISKP commander who is in charge of the group’s operations in Kashmir, was also an ex-LeT cadre and close to ISI. He was a relative of Aijaz Ahmad Ahangar, known as alias Abu Usman al Kashmiri (a resident of Srinagar), who also joined ISKP. Previously, Ahangar was with Tahreek-ul-Mujahidin (TuM) and Harkat-ul-Mujahidin (HuM), two other Pakistan-backed terrorist groups operating in Kashmir. Ahangar is also a son-in-law of Abdullah Ghani Dar, known as Abdullah Ghazali, former commander of TuM and LeT. ISKP chief Aslam Farukhi, the mastermind of the Kabul gurudwara attack, which killed twenty-seven Sikhs, is also an ex-LeT member. After his arrest in Kandahar, Pakistan asked for his extradition because the ISI feared he would reveal too much about his links to Pakistani intelligence. Another influential ISKP leader, Abdul Haseeb Loghari (an Afghan Taliban defector), was an alim (a religious position) with HQN before he joined the group.

HQN, also known as the Taliban’s sword arm, has maintained a close relationship with the Taliban and Al Qaeda. Its chief, Sirajuddin Haqqani, is the deputy commander of the Taliban. Notorious for its suicide bombings, HQN has conducted many deadly attacks in Afghanistan, killing many American and Afghan soldiers. It also runs a vast criminal drug trafficking enterprise. Had it not been for the ISI’s deep-rooted provision of training, weapons, safe heavens, and finances, HQN would not have endured for the last twenty years.

ISKP has collaborated with HQN in several tactical and strategic matters. Aslam Farookhi’s interrogation revealed highly synchronized operational dynamics between ISKP, JeM, HQN, and LeT. ISKP individuals received training at JeM camps at Chaman and Tolandi in Pakistan. The LeT provided operatives and identified targets in Afghanistan which could generate socio-political and economic concerns. Through its control of vast criminal resources and military muscle, HQN helped with logistics and coordination. ISKP worked on propaganda, provided the recruits, and claimed the attacks. Farookhi’s revelations helped the Afghan police neutralize several ISKP networks that were intertwined with the Haqqanis.Having discussed the interconnected and overlapping nature of terror groups in the Afghanistan-Pakistan region, it becomes clear that the ISI is the common denominator among all of them.

Decoding the Kabul Blasts

Following the recent Kabul blasts, it is worth questioning ISKP’s claims. HQN has been managing Kabul’s security as it is a natural choice given its vast resources, military muscle, ties with the Taliban, and ISI’s backing. Also, a senior Pakistani army major-general was reportedly in Kabul to oversee the security and other affairs in the days following the Afghan government’s collapse. It stretches credulity to understand how members of a second-rung terror group, reportedly having strong ties with HQN, managed to breach the Kabul airport’s high-security zone, bypassing rigorous security checkpoints and committing an act of terror. Any objective analysis is incomplete without exploring whether others, including HQN, Pakistan, or the Taliban itself provided tacit support to ISKP. Thus, we must also consider who benefits from the aforementioned blasts, especially since the Americans are leaving and the Taliban needs international recognition. Indeed, neither the Taliban nor HQN owned up the attack. Instead, by taking responsibility, ISKP has served its purpose.First, the attack has demolished French president Emmanuel Macron’s idea of establishing a safe zone at Kabul’s airport for civilian evacuations after August 31, the U.S. withdrawal deadline, and also put brakes on the evacuation of Afghans who assisted coalition forces. Second, raising the specter of ISKP enables Pakistan to project the Taliban as a responsible actor—the so-called “good guys”—and compel the Americans to support Pakistan and Taliban in fighting ISKP and via military and financial assistance. Third, the Taliban’s projection as a responsible and reformed entity offers some respite and much-sought-after justification for the United States’ withdrawal decision, at a time when Washington is facing colossal embarrassment because of its hasty and bungled withdrawal. Fourth, with U.S. help, the Taliban is likely to weed out anti-Taliban and anti-Pakistan factions in ISKP, gaining some plaudits for contributing to the war on terror.Given the ISI’s history of intelligence operations, it is not challenging to understand how Pakistan’s nexus with ISKP furthers Islamabad’s objectives. Pakistan has raised many two-tier proxy groups with secular names in Kashmir after the first layer got exposed. For example, The Resistance Front (TRF) is a LeT offshoot. The People’s Anti-Fascist Front (PAFF) is JeM’s proxy. LeT and JeM stand exposed as Pakistan-backed terror groups, and any attacks claimed by them may invite a harsh reaction by the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) against Pakistan.

Hence, since raising multiple proxies gives Pakistan deniability, the ISI is using the same model in Afghanistan. For example, luring Indian nationals into ISKP and inducing them to target Indian interests in Afghanistan has offered convincing deniability to Pakistan compared to using known proxies like LeT and JeM. Likewise, since Pakistan’s links with the Taliban and HQN are well-known, it is nurturing ISKP for three reasons: to maintain a degree of plausible deniability, to project an image of also being a victim of terror, and to make the Taliban more acceptable to international actors.

There is a strong likelihood that ISKP will claim responsibility for more attacks on Western and Indian targets in the region soon. Moreover, Pakistan’s double game of keeping up the pretense of being a U.S. ally against terror while sheltering, funding, and training terrorist groups with U.S. aid money is likely to continue. The only difference now is that ISKP has replaced Al Qaeda and the Taliban as America’s latest antagonist. Regardless, as long as the Pakistani Army’s General Headquarters in Rawalpindi continues to play its bloody and covert intelligence game from behind the scenes, innocent Afghans will continue to suffer.

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/pakistan-connection-how-iskp-became-islamabad%E2%80%99s-latest-proxy-193221?page=0%2C1