Wednesday, May 20, 2020
#CoronaVirusInPakistan - The worst is yet to come- The rush to reopen may harm the economy more than it helps
By: Sahil Yar Muhammad
The novel coronavirus and the disease it causes, COVID-19, has affected the world on such a scale that it is not an exaggeration to say it has affected the social chains of people at the grass-root level. Due to the risk of infection, people are staying at home, governments are fearing a further increase in infection cases. They have imposed lockdowns that have ravaged the world economy, leading to a recession that has easily surpassed that of the 2008 financial crisis.
The curve has begun to flatten and governments such as that of Italy, the USA, and others are relaxing some restrictions to allow the economy to gasp for a breath of fresh air. The Pakistani government is also contemplating ease in some restrictions which can see some businesses carrying out their activities although by following some Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs).
However, it is a reduction in the alertness level of the governments which will prove most detrimental to them. The flattening of the curve, or a reduction in the transmission of the virus, does not mean that it has begun to disappear or a cause for celebration, but it is at such a critical time that a government must not lower its guard and observe vigilance to not lose its gains.
The second wave of an epidemic or pandemic is in most cases more deadly than the first, if one looks at the Spanish Flu, the Black Death, H1N1 Flu, Ebola, and SARS. The second wave of the Spanish Flu in 1918 caused significantly more deaths than the first one, the reason for the second wave being a relaxation in the restrictions.The second wave of the Black Death in the 1500s was far nastier than the first wave. The second wave of Ebola was due to end but the death of an 11-month-old girl in the Democratic Republic of Congo and a 26-year-old electrician said otherwise. The H1N1 Flu, which the Centre for Disease Control (CDC) estimates took the lives of between 151,700 and 575,400 people, had a second wave more hellish than the first. While it is not by any means guaranteed that a second wave will happen but looking back at previous pandemics, a second wave is most likely.
The governments must listen and believe in the voices of reason from the professionals who know what it is they are doing and not to the voices of buffoons like Donald Trump who believe the coronavirus is no more dangerous than a flu. The ultimate goal of every government must be to make sure the damage to life as well as the economy is as low as possible. Relaxing restrictions will help in the shortest term but will have devastating consequences over the longer term because the health experts and other professionals mean it in the truest sense when they say, “The worst is yet to come”
It is the mistake of lowering their guard which will come back to haunt the governments relaxing the lockdowns in their territory, although the reasons for relaxing them are quite understandable, as they have frozen economic activity and put the livelihoods of countless people at risk, so relaxation will provide them a breath of fresh air.
It is unfortunate that the relaxation will also provide the pandemic with fresh air which will come at the ignorant population with an even greater force. The devastation which is yet to come will not be a love tap but a heavy blow to the gut which will not leave a bruise or two but a gaping wound. The economy will suffer more, people will suffer even more and the government best contemplates the option of slitting its own throat if this keeps up.
The relaxation from the government of Pakistan has done less to allay the fears of experts. The population of Pakistan is not as averse to danger as those of many other countries, perhaps because of the recent troubled times as well as the illiteracy. It is evident from the utter ignorance of the people who do not obey instructions to limit chances of transmission, going to shopping malls in such numbers that it is hard to find a place to put your foot down. The lack of implementation of SOPs by traders and businesses does not do much in helping the cause, although they too are justified in their actions as most shops are only big enough to accommodate only a few people at a time. It is the responsibility of the citizens to obey the government but it is the responsibility of the government to create a suitable environment for its citizens.
The government fails to understand that the suffering of the underprivileged sections of the population can be abated through economic packages for their households but once the people are infected, it takes a while for them to recover and they may in the most likely of cases infect others as well and with Pakistan’s health system as it is, the situation will be in simple words, ‘not good’. However, if the safety of the people is the government’s top priority as it should be, then introduce further relief packages for the most vulnerable sectors of the population, which will do much good to them and the country in the long run.
Yes, steps to provide relief to the population will affect the economy, but what the government must understand is that the economy no matter how much it goes into recession can be put on track. It will take time to recover but it will recover nonetheless, as long as there is a desire, a passion, a stubborn mind to revitalize the economy. What good will revitalizing the economy do if there are no people to do it for?
Instead of listening to rubbish, the governments must listen to the voice of experts, it will do much good. The voice of doctors and professionals have started to go hoarse from shouting too much about the dangers of relaxing the lockdown when the curve has just started to straighten, or in Pakistan’s rare case which has decided to relax the lockdown despite the corona curve steadily rising.
Almost all health experts have expressed dread on what is an almost certain second wave. Dr. Ian Lipkin of the Columbia University’s Center for Infection and Immunity says, “We’re risking a backslide that will be intolerable”.
Olivier Schwartz, head of the virus unit at France’s Pasteur Institute said, “There will be a second wave, but the problem is to which extent. Is it a small wave or a big wave? It’s too early to say”, and by the time it is just right to say, it will be too late to react.
Josh Michaud, the associate director of global health policy with the Kaiser Family Foundation in Washington said, “If we relax these measures without having the proper health safeguards in place, we can expect more cases, and unfortunately, more deaths.”
The governments must listen and believe in the voices of reason from the professionals who know what it is they are doing and not to the voices of buffoons like Donald Trump who believe the coronavirus is no more dangerous than a flu. The ultimate goal of every government must be to make sure the damage to life as well as the economy is as low as possible. Relaxing restrictions will help in the shortest term but will have devastating consequences over the longer term because the health experts and other professionals mean it in the truest sense when they say, “The worst is yet to come”.
Pakistan records around 2,000 new Covid-19 cases, 46 fatalities in past 24 hours
A total number of infections in the country stand at 45,898 with 985 deaths. Pakistan has partially resumed its domestic air services.
Pakistan recorded 1,932 new cases of the novel coronavirus and 46 fatalities during the last 24 hours, taking the total number of infections in the country to 45,898 with 985 deaths, the health ministry said on Wednesday.
As many as 414,254 coronavirus tests have been conducted so far, it said, adding that 13,962 examinations were done in the last 24 hours.
Sindh recorded 17,947 coronavirus cases, followed by Punjab at 16,685, Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa 6,554, Balochistan 2,885, Islamabad 1,138, Gilgit-Baltistan 556 and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir 133.
So far 13,101 patients have recovered from the virus, the ministry said.
Pakistan has started easing in phases the coronavirus lockdown and partially resumed its domestic air services.
#PPP - Bilawal Bhutto reminds judiciary of ‘medical realities’ as PTI hails SC order
While expressing his views on social media, Bilawal did not mention his remarks as reaction or comment on the SC verdict, but rather what he was thinking over the challenges posed by the coronavirus.
“Hoping sanity prevails in the highest court of our land,” tweeted Mr Bhutto-Zardari. “I don’t want to believe that the superior judiciary would pass any judgement endangering the health & lives of the people of Pakistan. I’m sure all honorable judges will give judgements based on facts & medical realities. IA (Insha Allah).”
PTI welcomes verdict
Thanking the SC for allowing shopping malls to resume business and lifting the restrictions on major commercial centres, the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf demanded that the Sindh government allow business round the clock in the last days of Ramazan and let public transport services, banned till Eid holidays, resume.
The senior leaders of the party in Sindh strongly criticised the PPP government in Sindh for not allowing business even days before Eid celebrations. They also expressed their doubts and reservations over the measures put in place by the provincial government in the name of “standard operating procedures”.
“We are fighting for the rights of the people,” said the PTI Karachi president and Sindh Assembly member Khurram Sher Zaman while speaking at a press conference at the party office called Insaf House.
“Our objective is to bring relief to the people. We are very much grateful to the Chief Justice of Pakistan for his suo motu notice that led to the opening of markets and malls. The governments of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Punjab have already reopened the malls. We demand here in Sindh the markets should be kept open for 24 hours till the last night of Ramazan. Public transport should be opened under the SOPs.”
Flanked by Leader of the Opposition in Sindh Assembly Firdous Shamim Naqvi, PTI’s parliamentary leader Haleem Adil Sheikh and other party colleagues, he questioned the credibility and qualification of the chief minister’s advisers who were devising a strategy for the daily life of the people in Sindh.
“My question is that does threat of the coronavirus emerge after 5pm? Does it only threaten the traders?” He said the closure of petrol stations after certain time was also beyond his understanding.
https://www.dawn.com/news/1558087/bilawal-reminds-judiciary-of-medical-realities-as-pti-hails-sc-order
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