Saturday, September 4, 2021
Don’t Assume a Taliban-Ruled Afghanistan Means Smooth Sailing for Pakistan
By Maryam Raashed
@maryam_raashed
Don’t Assume a Taliban-Ruled Afghanistan Means Smooth Sailing for Pakistan.With the withdrawal of the U.S.-led coalition forces from Afghanistan and reclamation of political power by the Afghan Taliban, countries in the region are shifting to respond to the emerging scenarios. For nearby countries like China, Russia, the Central Asian republics, India, and Pakistan, the political, economic, and security stakes in Afghanistan remain high. To Afghanistan’s east, Pakistan has been preparing to cope with the changing political and security dynamics in Afghanistan, and whatever may follow in the future. From pressing for a politically inclusive settlement to evacuations and delivery of medical supplies, Islamabad is trying to keep its position in Afghanistan strong. As simple as it may sound, engaging with the Taliban will not be an easy affair for Islamabad. Contrary to the general belief that Islamabad exercises considerable leverage over the Afghan Taliban, the coming days may reveal the limitations of Pakistan’s influence. The Taliban of today possess a renewed vigor. The group has emerged as a dominant political force in Afghanistan, poised to assume the reins of government. The United States’ direct talks with the Taliban, resulting in a U.S. withdrawal, and the unexpectedly quick fall of Kabul have bolstered the Taliban’s image as victors in a war against a mighty superpower. Moreover, the world’s major powers, European states, and the world at large, have developed the uneasy understanding that Taliban are a political reality in Afghanistan. Hence, the Taliban’s power quotient, domestically and internationally, has considerably risen since the last time they were in power. Pakistan is no longer their only option for international support. Even during the last period of Taliban rule, Pakistan’s leverage over the Afghan Taliban was overestimated. Pakistan remained unable to exercise its leverage on the issue of Durand Line, which is a key national security concern for Islamabad. During the Taliban’s rule in the 1990s, Pakistan was unable to pressure the Taliban into observing human rights. These examples are telling of the limits of Pakistan’s leverage over the Afghan Taliban. Most recently, three incidents particularly raise concerns over how Pakistan’s engagement with the Afghan Taliban will evolve. First, the Taliban freed Pul-e-Charkhi prisoners which included a senior TTP commander Maulvi Faqir Muhammad. Second is the Afghan Taliban’s display of discontent over the fencing of the Afghanistan-Pakistan border. And third are the Afghan Taliban’s claim that the issue of Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has to be dealt by Pakistan, and not Afghanistan, though Islamabad has long complained that TTP militants find safe harbor across the border.Pakistan is closely following the developments in Afghanistan. This focus on Afghanistan stems from the idea that any untoward development in Afghanistan will have a direct and impactful bearing on Pakistan. To put this into perspective: Pakistan lost over 80,000 lives and suffered over $150 billion worth of economic losses owing to the global war on terror in Afghanistan. Therefore, for Pakistan, a politically negotiated settlement is the only viable way to stability in Afghanistan. This policy orientation hinges on Pakistan’s desire for a stable Afghanistan — one without the internecine power struggles that provide operational spaces for militant groups. In tandem, Pakistan sees engagement with Afghanistan as a bedrock for encouraging the Afghan Taliban to conduct themselves responsibly in world politics. Pakistan’s concerns help explain its actions since the fall of Kabul to the Taliban. From August 14 to August 28, Pakistan had evacuated more than 7,000 foreigners from Afghanistan, via some 400 special flights. Pakistan International Airlines was the first airline to carry medical supplies to Afghanistan on August 30. The plane flew from Dubai to the city of Mazar-i-Sharif, carrying 12.5 tonnes of supplies. Pakistan is engaging with the Afghan Taliban, but this engagement should be cautiously delimited by Pakistan’s prime national security interests. Anti-Pakistan militancy is the primary concern. Apart from the threat of militancy, three other major issues should form the basis of Pakistan’s security calculus vis-a-vis Afghanistan: mutual border management, repatriation of Afghan refugees from Pakistan, and an earnest commitment by the Taliban government to human rights. In particular, anything less than the Afghan Taliban’s active role in taking on anti-Pakistan militants operating on Afghan soil and mutual border management should be unacceptable to Pakistan. Pakistan has long pressed the Afghan Taliban to crack down on TTP and Islamic State Khorasan (ISK, also referred to as ISIS-K). While the Taliban are fighting against ISK, they have not taken decisive action against the TTP. On the issue of the TTP, while speaking on a talk show on August 29, Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid said; “The issue of the TTP is one that Pakistan will have to deal with, not Afghanistan.” That is a worrying sign of the Afghan Taliban’s interest in tackling the issue. Hence, how the TTP question will develop Pakistan remains to be seen. In particular, Islamabad must press the issue of TTP leadership residing in Afghanistan. Pakistan considers border management critical for beefing up its security against terrorist infiltration, terror attacks, and illegal border transgressions from Afghanistan. Historically, management of the border has remained a contentious issue owing to Afghanistan’s refusal to recognize the Durand line. In fact, contesting the legality of the Durand line as an international boundary can be considered as one of the few issues that unites the differing Afghan political factions. While Pakistan has unilaterally fenced around 90 percent of the border, it must continue to pressure Afghanistan to initiate border patrolling at the Afghan side. To give perspective, attacks against Pakistani forces along the border have continued even after Kabul’s fall to the Taliban. The repatriation of Afghan refugees from Pakistan and Afghanistan’s commitment to human rights can be viewed as two sides of the same coin. Currently, Pakistan is hosting over 4 million Afghan refugees (around 90 percent of the total Afghan diaspora). So far, Pakistan has not registered any new incoming refugees. However, this should not dilute Islamabad’s concerns over the issue of refugees. In this regard, Islamabad will need meaningful engagement with the Taliban, prioritizing the facilitation of a formal repatriation of Afghan refugees. The Taliban should also be pushed to forge a domestic environment that is conducive to refugee repatriation. The issue of human rights under Taliban rule generally gains the most traction in external audiences. While the Afghan Taliban are notorious for their human rights violations, we should not forget that Afghanistan’s human rights crisis has continued even under other governments. To put this into perspective, a 2013 report by the Immigration and Refugee Board of Canada revealed how gross human rights violations by the power elites remained a characteristic feature of Afghan society even under the U.S.-backed government. However, fears over an escalation of human rights violations under the Taliban rule are justified due to the group’s history. Human rights violations should be condemned irrespective of who is in power; for Pakistan, there is also the practical concern that abuses in Afghanistan will translate into an expanding refugee crisis. In terms of geoeconomics, which is the overarching theme of Islamabad’s foreign policy currently, Afghanistan remains vital for Pakistan. Historically, policymakers in Pakistan had largely viewed Afghanistan through a geostrategic lens. While Pakistan may seek to approach Afghanistan with a multidimensional, economically-driven approach in the longer run, the overriding focus on security cannot be overcome unless these issues are addressed. Hence, more than anything, political stability in Afghanistan remains paramount for Pakistan. As of now, Pakistan is trying to secure its interests in Afghanistan, while remaining in step with the international community. As a first step, Pakistan decided to await other countries’ recognition of the Taliban’s government in Afghanistan and refrained from recognizing it right away. This posture could be understood as Pakistan’s diplomatic move to remind the Taliban that Pakistan is not an unconditional backer; a give-and-take will form the basis of Pakistan’s engagement with the Taliban. Islamabad’s Afghan policy needs to be prepared for many topsy-turvy developments. It is still highly uncertain if the Taliban will establish an all-inclusive government by peaceful negotiation or consolidate their control through military might. Other unanswered questions include the extent of political and military resistance to the Taliban, how far the new government will decentralize and devolve power to local authorities, and much more. Afghanistan’s stability is the most desirable scenario for Pakistan. Like any other country, national security imperatives are and shall remain foremost for Pakistan. However, the resources that Pakistan has at its disposal, including its much-hyped influence over the Taliban, are limited. Pakistan may seek to be a partner in peace, but the responsibility of ensuring a peaceful Afghanistan lies on the bigger players. Stability in Afghanistan has to qualify as a concern for the international community at large. Multilateralism was not an option after the Soviet Army withdrew; it must be the choice following the U.S. withdrawal.
https://thediplomat.com/2021/09/dont-assume-a-taliban-ruled-afghanistan-means-smooth-sailing-for-pakistan/
Top Pakistani official travels to Afghanistan
BY CAMERON JENKINS
Pakistan's intelligence chief made a trip to Afghanistan's capital on Saturday, according to two country officials who spoke to The Associated Press on the condition of anonymity. Pakistani Gen. Faiez Hameed reportedly met with Taliban leadership during his trip, but it was not made clear at the time what was discussed.
According to the AP, the Pakistani intelligence service holds the greatest amount of outside influence when it comes to the Taliban. Leaders of the Taliban have previously located their headquarters in Pakistan and kept in contact with the country's Inter-Services Intelligence agency.
Both the U.S. and former Afghan governments have accused Pakistan of providing the Taliban with military aid in the past, but the country has repeatedly denied it, the AP noted.
India’s ambassador to Qatar held a formal meeting with the Taliban early last week, discussing the safe return of Indian nationals to their homes.
At the time, India had faced criticism for not communicating with the Taliban after the country invested over $3 billion in Afghanistan.
“India is very important for the region and we want to trade and economic relations with it. We expect the relationship will continue like before,” Sher Mohammad Abbas Stanekzai, the head of the Taliban’s Political Office in Doha said, then.
https://thehill.com/policy/international/middle-east-north-africa/570836-top-pakistani-official-travels-to-afghanistan
https://thehill.com/policy/international/middle-east-north-africa/570836-top-pakistani-official-travels-to-afghanistan
https://thehill.com/policy/international/middle-east-north-africa/570836-top-pakistani-official-travels-to-afghanistan
Notable politicians join PPP during Chairman Bilawal’s Multan visit
We have to take forward the legacy of the elders of the Pakistan Peoples Party and this is our obligation to fulfill that dream of people’s prosperity and wellbeing. Quaid-e-Awam Shaheed Zulfikar Ali Bhutto had founded this party to serve the people. Quaid-e-Awam had promised to give “Roti, Kapra aur Makan” but the present ruler who is selected is snatching these things from the poor people. Shaheed Mohtarma Benazir Bhutto had provided jobs to thousands of youngsters during her government in1993-1996 so that the economy of the country could stand on its own feet. Then Mian Sahib during his government sacked those employees but in the next PPP government, our Prime Minister Syed Yousuf Raza Gillani reinstated them through the parliament. Now this selected government has sacked those 20,000 employees again.
The common man of this country is suffering from historic unemployment, poverty and inflation due to this selected government. We can take the country and its people out of this quagmire through the ideology of Quaid-e-Awam and the manifesto of Shaheed Mohtarma Benazir Bhutto. We all have to work together to convince people that if we want to save Pakistan then we have to support the Pakistan Peoples Party. Insha Allah, we will form the next government, and once again there will be Awami raj.
He said this while addressing party workers at the residence of late Syed Nazim Hussain Shah. He condoled with his sons Liaqat Ali Shah and Barrister Mudassir Hussain Shah on the passing away of their parents late Syed Nazim Hussain Shah and Mrs. Nazim Hussain Shah. He said that Nazim Hussain Shah’s services for the party and the common people are unforgettable.Chairman PPP arrived in Multan this morning and spent a very busy day meeting political leaders of the area and visiting residences of notable PPP leaders who have passed away recently to condole with the families of departed souls and offering fateha. Large numbers of PPP workers gave a roaring reception to their Chairman Bilawal Bhutto Zardari at Syedan Wala Bypass, Shershah road and other places. Rose petals were showered on the cavalcade.
Twice elected member National Assembly from Layyah and former federal minister Bahadur Khan Sehar called on Chairman Bilawal Bhutto Zardari and invited the Chairman for dinner at his place on 11 September which was happily accepted by Chairman Bilawal. Bahadur Khan Sehar will formally announce joining the party at that event. Former Prime Minister Syed Yousuf Raza Gillani and Makhdoom Ahmed Mehmood were also present at the meeting.
Earlier a ticket holder of Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid-e-Azam (PML-Q), Mian Mazhar Abbas and MQM ticket holder from Muzaffar Garh, Amjad Ali Amjad called on the Chairman PPP and announced joining PPP. Makhdoom Ahmed Mehmood, Khawaja Rizwan Alam, Natasha Doulatana, Haider Zaman Qureshi, Basroji, Abdul Qadir Shaheen, Hasan Murtaza and Shahzad Saeed Cheema were also present on the occasion.
During the day, Chairman Bilawal spoke to the opposition leader in the National Assembly Shahbaz Sharif and discussed the political situation and the appointment of members Election Commission of Pakistan.
Chairman Bilawal visited the residence of general secretary PPP Multan, A D Khan Baloch and condoled his brother’s death and offered fateha. Chairman PPP also visited the residence of former senior deputy president PPP Multan, Ali Haider Zaman Gardezi and condoled with him on his brother Col R Nasir Zaman Gardezi’s death and offered fateha for the departed soul. Rao Sajid, Abdul Qadir Shaheen and Haider Zaman Qureshi were also present during these visits.
https://www.ppp.org.pk/pr/25430/
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