Sunday, July 3, 2022
Saudis Unwilling To Upset Putin As Biden Begs For More Crude
TSVETANA PARASKOVA
The world’s largest crude oil exporter, Saudi Arabia, continues to keep close ties with Russia while the top oil consumer, the United States, pleads with major producers—including the Kingdom—to boost supply to the market and help ease consumers’ pain at the pump. While the U.S. and its Western allies are sanctioning Moscow and banning oil imports from Russia, U.S. President Joe Biden is also turning to Saudi Arabia to ask it to pump more oil as Americans pay on average $5 a gallon for gasoline.
The Saudis prefer to keep close ties with Russia in oil policy as the OPEC+ pact and the control over a large portion of global oil supply has benefited both OPEC+ leaders—the Kingdom and Russia—over the past half a decade. Saudi Arabia, however, could use a little thaw in Saudi-U.S. relations under President Biden, who is no longer talking about the world’s top crude exporter as a “pariah” state.
The Saudis are carefully maneuvering to keep Russia as an ally in the OPEC+ group and possibly improve relations with the United States.
President Biden—desperate to see relief for American drivers ahead of the midterm elections—has made a U-turn on Saudi Arabia and is expected this month to visit the Kingdom, which he said on the campaign trail would be treated as a “pariah” state during his presidency. But U.S. gasoline prices at $5 a gallon and the loss of part of the Russian supply have made President Biden reconsider and meet with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.
Saudi Arabia has publicly reiterated its “warm” ties with Russia on several occasions since Putin invaded Ukraine, and considers keeping Russia in the OPEC+ alliance an important part of its oil policy. With Russia leading a dozen non-OPEC producers in the pact, Saudi Arabia has more sway over global oil markets with the larger OPEC+ group than with OPEC alone.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman have discussed their countries’ cooperation in the OPEC+ oil production pact in a few telephone conversations since February, and have vowed to continue their cooperation.
Last month, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said that Russia could continue its participation in the OPEC+ agreement even after it officially expires at the end of this year. Novak was speaking after a meeting in St Petersburg with Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, who made a surprise appearance at a Russian economic forum.
During that meeting, the Saudi minister said that Saudi-Russian relations were “as warm as the weather in Riyadh.”
Two weeks before that meeting, Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov visited Riyadh and met with his Saudi counterpart Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud. The two ministers said that the OPEC+ alliance is solid, with the level of cooperation within it strong.
The recent OPEC+ decision to accelerate the production increase and roll back all cuts in August, a month earlier than initially planned, was pushed by Saudi Arabia amid U.S. pressure. But the Kingdom had to check with Russia first before proposing the redistribution of the September increase in July and August, sources with knowledge of the behind-the-scenes diplomacy told Reuters this week.
Both the Saudis and Russia benefit from the OPEC+ deal, so Riyadh wants to keep Russia on board, the sources say.
“The Saudis are enjoying high prices while the Russians need guaranteed support from OPEC+ in the current circumstances,” a source familiar with Russian thinking told Reuters.
“No one is interested in a market collapse,” added the source.
After the production cuts are completely rolled back next month, a more difficult decision for OPEC+ looms: what to do next as Russia is more than 1 million bpd behind target and could lose more supply as the EU embargo on its oil begins at the end of this year.
Neither is OPEC+ as a group anywhere close to reaching its target production, nor has Saudi Arabia much spare capacity left to boost production further, as the U.S. and other major consumers want. Per the OPEC+ deal, the Saudi target (as well as Russia’s) is at 11.004 million bpd for August. The Kingdom has rarely reached this level, and not for a sustained period of time. So, it’s not certain that the Saudis have the ability to pump 11 million bpd or more on a sustainable basis. It’s even less certain that the Kingdom can quickly tap—if it wanted to—into the 12.2 million bpd production capacity it claims it has.
- The United States is calling on Saudi Arabia to increase oil production.
- Saudi Arabia has maintained its OPEC+ output agreement, refusing to ramp up production.
- The Kingdom is still maintaining close ties with Russia despite its continued aggression in Ukraine.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Saudis-Unwilling-To-Upset-Putin-As-Biden-Begs-For-More-Crude.html
Saudi-Jewish relations prospering in wake of Abraham Accords- opinion
By RABBI MEYER H. MAYOn a trip with prominent New York rabbis, two conversations changed Rabbi May's view of Saudi Arabia.
Not because this American Orthodox rabbi would have an issue with engaging with Arabs. In fact, I joined open private meetings, more than a decade ago, with the crown prince and now president of the United Arab Emirates, H.H. Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed and separately with the ruler of Dubai, H.H. Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, and have co-led numerous Simon Wiesenthal Center leadership missions to the UAE since. But Saudi Arabia, in my mind, was quite antithetical to the forward-thinking Gulf states that embraced Israel and joined the Abraham Accords. Two conversations changed my mind and because of them, I grasped at the opportunity to join a high-level delegation on a first visit to the kingdom with former US Special Representative for International Negotiations Jason Greenblatt, the impressive leadership of New York’s UJA Federation, and two prominent New York rabbis.
First, a renowned equity investor, whom I study with, told me recently in passing, “If you think what is going on in the Gulf is exciting, just wait until you see what is happing in Saudi.” Later, Eli Epstein, a man I deeply admire and respect, who saw the potential for warm Muslim-Jewish relations three decades ago and who first introduced me to the UAE, invited me to join this mission! These two men got me dreaming of new possibilities and new friendships.Once on the ground in Riyadh and magnificently and unsparingly feted by our World Muslim League hosts, my eyes were opened to exciting and breathtaking opportunities for durable bilateral relationship-building with the new Saudi Arabia and its people. The kingdom’s Vision 2030, a strategic framework for rapidly moving Saudi forward by building a vibrant society where people come first – all to be based on Islamic principles of moderation – wasexpressed in all our meetings. We had meetings with government agencies responsible for identifying and combating extremism and radical groups and with senior figures in the Defense and Foreign Affairs ministries. Every single reception was gracious and warm. Our counterparts made every effort to express their appreciation for our historic visit and at every meeting, I was welcomed to openly wear my kippah. Members of the Saudi Embassy team who accompanied us were open and honest as they contextualized for us throughout our visit, which included the amazing models of the $1 trillion planned cities, such as Neom, and the historic ruins in AlUla. What did we learn? While the Saudis cannot revise their recent malevolent, unforgivablehistory, they have shifted to aggressively combating extremist ideology on social media, inprint, and in other public fora. We also learned that the government is intensifying its focus on developing opportunitiesfor its youth and its emerging new generation of leaders. Many in the meetings were young,ambitious, and innovative thinkers. We also saw women treated equally and with respect,sitting side by side with their male counterparts. We were warmly served by hotel staff, menand women who were probably having their first encounters with a Jewish group and aminyan, the Jewish prayer quorum. Will the Saudis join the Abraham Accords? This was beyond the scope of our initial visit. Thesenior officials in the Foreign Ministry, with whom we met, will likely join the forthcomingmeeting with President Joe Biden in Riyadh. They explained many of the geopolitical factorsthat must first fall in place and how Saudi remains the bulwark holding back extremistnational actors throughout the Middle East who would be unleashed by any precipitousmoves by the kingdom. Be that as it may, bilateral relations with Israel seem inevitable and are probably already happening behind the scenes, much as the secret March meeting attended by IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Aviv Kochavi and senior Arab military leaders, including Saudi Arabia’s Chief of Staff Air Chief Marshal Fayyadh Al Ruwaili, in Sharm el-Sheikh to discuss countering the escalating regional threats posed by Iran. From all impressions, the new Saudi, like its GulfCooperation Council neighbors, enthusiastically welcomes the economic and technological opportunities that would follow an alliance, formal or otherwise, with Israel. The sands of the Arabian desert are always shifting. We saw them slowly shift right before our eyes, in real time! My fellow travelers and I were privileged to be part of the changing winds and shifting sands of this initial Saudi-Jewish leadership dialogue.
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-710939
#Pakistan - Inflation’s deep bite
Now we’re in that cycle where inflation will shock to the upside and even beat the finance ministry and state bank’s expectations, as it did in June when it broke a 13-year record and clocked in at 21.3pc. Last time it was recorded at a little over 21pc and ate into individual and household savings in this way was in Feb-09. And the way it is hiking, beating all estimates, goes to show two very important things. One, even though food and energy inflation is highest in a long time, more in rural than urban areas, core inflation, which discounts these two heads, is also at near-record levels. That shows inflation is rising across all sectors, including services now.
And two, all the usual market manipulation and hoarding that comes in such societies in such times is also proceeding at breakneck pace. Everybody and their uncle are using expensive fuel and energy as an excuse to make their products much more expensive. And the salaried working class and lower classes, all the way to daily wagers, are bearing the brunt of this trend because their meagre incomes are still fixed, which means they are constantly diminishing in real terms.
Since there’s also much more inflation down the road, especially more expensive fuel and gas, all this begs the question of just how long the government is going to raise prices and taxes and cut subsides because the people’s patience, as well as their ability to meet their expenses, is all but worn out. Its dilemma is that it must do whatever the IMF demands, or there will be no bailout program and no other loans and therefore no way to meet the $37-40b due in debt payment over the new fiscal year.
The real question, then, is how much further the Fund is going to push the government, which will determine how much deeper inflation is going to bit the common man.
https://dailytimes.com.pk/961567/inflations-deep-bite/
#Pakistan: Unidentified men open fire at polio worker, severely injured
Unidentified armed men opened fire at polio workers in Pakistan’s Mir Ali Tehsil leaving another vaccinator severely injured.
A police report stated that Sher Shah was attacked in the TT Madakhel area.
Shah was shifted to tehsil Mir Ali hospital and later referred to Peshawar, The Tribune newspaper reported.
A similar incident took place on Tuesday where two policemen and a polio worker were killed in an attack in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province.
A polio team escorted by police was administering polio vaccines to kids in the North Waziristan district when the incident occurred, Xinhua News Agency reported.
“Unknown gunmen opened fire at the polio team and fled the scene. A kid who was receiving drops also got injured in the attack,” the sources said.
Pakistan is one of two countries, together with Afghanistan, where polio is still endemic, though cases numbers have dropped drastically in recent years.Pakistani officials reported an eighth wild poliovirus case of 2022 on June 3. This most recent case is a 20-month-old boy paralyzed by wild polio.Polio transmission is highly active in certain core districts of Pakistan, including Karachi (Sindh), Peshawar (Khyber Pakhtunkhwa), and the Quetta block in Balochistan. Polio cases have also been identified in northern Sindh and Southern Punjab.
A large proportion of cases are among Pashto-speaking populations.
The country has failed to eliminate polio which reflects the acute lack of commitment and obligation on the part of the government and society toward saving children from the menace of this devastating disease.The problem is rooted in financial and organizational deficits, as well as active conflict and insecurity, which has caused the persistent failure of effective immunization campaigns in the country.
Pakistan and Afghanistan have faced significant security challenges along the border, including targeted attacks on polio workers and security guards and an absolute ban on polio immunization in certain areas.
Diffidence in the region is often listed as a significant hindrance to polio eradication, reported Global Start View.
Many polio workers and security personnel have lost their lives in the past years during polio vaccination campaigns, and such incidents have been one of the major reasons that polio is still endemic in Pakistan.
According to media reports, as many as 70 polio workers have been killed in terrorist attacks since 2012, mainly in the province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, reported Global Strat View.
The victims of these attacks include frontline workers, international consultants, program staff, and even police officers providing security.
https://theprint.in/world/pakistan-unidentified-men-open-fire-at-polio-worker-severely-injured/1022951/
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