Saturday, May 18, 2019
Alabama abortion ban: Should men have a say in the debate?
Most of the US state laws banning or severely restricting access to abortions have been voted on by male politicians. Should men have the right to rule on an issue that impacts women so intimately?The corridors leading up to the Alabama Senate are lined with black-and-white photographs of past legislative sessions - each framed poster like a yearbook page from a distinctly male-only school.But inside the dim public gallery, looking down onto the Senate floor, many of the seats are filled by women. They are young and old, some in suits and some in bright shirts with pro-choice slogans emblazoned across the front.They watch the drama play out in the chamber below, as a handful of Democrats and an even smaller number of women make clear their outrage over the abortion ban that will pass in just a few hours, and in a day, will become law.The activists next to me in the gallery laugh and gasp with each argument and reply. Some shout an 'Amen!' in agreement as the debate continues.
When a female lawmaker steps up to the microphone, she says: We do not police men's bodies the way we police women's - and this decision about an issue concerning women so intimately is being made almost entirely by men.
Though women make up 51% of Alabama's population, its lawmakers are 85% male. There are only four women in the 35-seat Alabama Senate, and they are all Democrats.
Outside the stark white walls of the State House on Tuesday night, however, women were in the majority. Groups of pro-choice supporters chanted for hours in the courtyard, holding signs calling for abortion freedoms, for women alone to decide what happens to their own bodies.Delaney Burlingame, one of the young pro-choice activists I met there, told me: "These people don't care about protecting human rights. It's about controlling women."
"They just want to be able to say: 'I control what happens in your body'."
So, should men be involved in this debate at all?
Alabama's abortion ban - one of several in a Trump-era surge in anti-abortion legislation - has reignited the debate around another key question: Should men be involved in this battle at all?Internet forums like Reddit and social platforms like Twitter and Facebook are saturated with arguments for both sides. Yes - these laws affect everyone, including men. No - only women get pregnant, so why should we let men decide?Travis Jackson was one of the few men who joined in the protests outside of the Montgomery capitol building, donning a shirt that read: real men support women's rights.But Mr Jackson would not offer his own opinion on abortion, exactly, saying instead he prefers to stay silent on the specifics since "women are the only experts when it comes to their bodies".
"When it comes to the abortion debate, I think men should say it is a woman's right to choose," he explains.
"That is their body, that is their choice, and that is their business. No man whatsoever has a right to tell a woman what's right for their body."
Jordan Kizer is against abortion but says he thinks Mr Jackson's decision is "honourable", and that men should "share their privilege".
"Believe women, trust women. If they're telling you they feel a certain way or that this is their experience, you [as a man] don't get to say no, it's not," he says.
Mr Kizer is a part of the New Wave Feminists group in Austin, Texas, that seeks to promote women's rights as a means of making abortion eventually "unthinkable and unnecessary".
"I think a woman should absolutely have a say over her body, I just draw the line between her body and this different body that's inside of her body," he says. "I know that's kind of a tricky distinction to make for some."
On the other side of the debate, Oren Jacobson, a founder of the Men4Choice advocacy group, also believes the issue affects everyone - but that male allies should fight for women to have the freedom to make whatever decision they choose."Too many pro-choice men think this is just a 'women's issue' and it's not their place. This is an issue that impacts all of us, and will require all of us to engage if we want to create a society where all are free to pursue the life they envision for themselves and their family."
Mr Jacobson tells me the issue really isn't about abortion, but freedom and control.
"No person can be free if they don't control their own body, their own healthcare, and their own reproductive decisions. The role of men is to advocate for the basic freedom and dignity of all people."
Anti-abortion activists, however, argue that placing the burden of choice entirely on a woman alienates men and allows them to shirk the responsibilities of fatherhood.Derrick Jones, communications director for the oldest US anti-abortion group, the National Right to Life Committee (NRLC), told me men should be involved in the discussions because "statistically speaking, half of the children aborted every year are male".
"To say that this is wholly a woman's issue misses the point of it being much larger than that. It's a human rights issue. To say, you're a man, you're not carrying this child, to dismiss the idea that men can have an opinion on human rights is insulting."
Mr Jones adds that there should "absolutely" be more female representation when it comes to legislative bodies like Alabama's, but notes that many of the anti-abortion movement's leaders are women.
Women are just as divided about men
Carol Clark was one of the first protesters to show up in front of the state house in Montgomery, and she stayed into the night, right until the bill passed the Senate.
"Let a woman choose what she's going to do with her body," she told me, voice cracking with emotion. "It's not his body. It's her body."
That view is echoed by most of the women I spoke with at the protests in Alabama; that women should dictate abortion laws because women must carry the baby, must deal with the social and medical repercussions of pregnancy and having a child.
But on the streets of downtown Montgomery - and many other US states with conservative leanings - there are many women against granting that choice.Some are nuanced - like a mother who could only say she was against abortion but that it was "complicated" - but others are just as hard-line as some Republican lawmakers - like two young women who told me abortion should be banned even in cases involving rape, incest or the health of the mother.Catherine Coyle, a psychologist and an advocate for men's health and rights, says that giving women "unilateral power in abortion decisions is inconsistent with the notion of equality between the sexes"."As equal citizens [men] should surely have a right to voice their opinions on the topic of abortion," Ms Coyle says. "As co-creators of life, they should be acknowledged as having a legitimate interest in the protection of that life."
Where do most Americans stand?
For all the debate, the views across the country on abortion are largely the same even along gender lines.
According to a 2018 Pew Research Center study, 60% of women say abortion should be legal in all or most cases, with 57% of men in agreement.
Around 60% of black and white Americans polled were also in support of legal abortion in most cases, though the support was lower among Hispanic Americans at 49%.But along pro-choice or anti-abortion lines, a 2018 poll from Gallup found the country split evenly. Even among women, 48% identified as pro-choice and 47% as anti-abortion.Gallup also reported that though around "eight in 10 Americans believe abortion should be legal in all or some circumstances, further probing of their attitudes finds the public favouring more restrictive rather than less restrictive laws".
Are men really making these laws?
It is true that in states with more conservative abortion laws, men make up a greater percentage of the legislative houses.
In Alabama, though the governor who signed the abortion bill into law is a woman, The Rutgers University Center for American Women and Politics (CAWP) still ranks Alabama as 47 out of 50 in terms of female representation in the legislature.
And while women saw major gains in holding public office during the 2018 mid-term elections, the vast majority of those new female lawmakers were Democrats who support pro-choice laws.A Washington Post analysis of the state legislative houses in Alabama, Missouri and Georgia found that out of 367 in favour votes on abortion bans, seven out of eight votes were from men - and mostly Republican men. Of the total 154 votes against in the chambers, over half were from women, though most women lawmakers even at the state level are Democrats.
In the four states that passed six-week abortion bans - "heartbeat bills" - this year, women make up an average of 23% of the state legislature, according to CAWP. Mississippi is the lowest of that group and the nation, with women holding just over 13% of seats.
Even so, anti-abortion activists are quick to point out that Alabama's ban was sponsored by state congresswoman Terri Collins and signed into law by one of the nation's few female governors, Kay Ivey.Destiny Herndon-De La Rosa, founder of New Wave Feminists, adds: "The irony is that it was older white men that gave us Roe [vs Wade] in the first place.""We tend to pick and choose which older white men we want to agree with. You have to get beyond that and realise that a lot of the people in this [anti-abortion] movement are very diverse, and we are females."
How to Help Protect Abortion Rights in Alabama and Georgia
America is in an era of extreme anti-abortion laws.
Showing just how far to the right the anti-abortion movement has pushed the “center” of the abortion debate, it was the bill’s rape and incest exceptions, since removed, that dominated the conversation in the Alabama Senate. It seemed forgone that the state would ban abortions for a vast majority of the women there. Lawmakers supporting abortion rights were left arguing to preserve the rape and incest exceptions.
There is a strategy behind this law’s remarkable cruelty, and its supporters have not been subtle about it. The bill’s sponsor in the Alabama House, Terri Collins, said that the legislation was designed to produce a legal case that could overturn Roe v. Wade. When asked the purpose of the bill on Tuesday, Clyde Chambliss, the Senate sponsor, said, “So that we can go directly to the Supreme Court to challenge Roe v. Wade.” (Highlighting the ignorance behind so much anti-abortion legislation, Mr. Chambliss also seemed to argue repeatedly on Tuesday that women in Alabama would still be able to get abortions — but only before they knew they were pregnant.)
Anti-abortion lawmakers did not used to be so overt about their intentions to upend Roe. But now they have every reason to be open about their motives, with a Supreme Court that seems clearly tilted in their favor.
That’s why 2019 has been so relentless for supporters of reproductive rights. Just about every week there has been a new, extreme anti-abortion bill on the table. Georgia’s governor last week signed legislation to ban abortions after six weeks of pregnancy — which might as well be a full ban. Lawmakers in Kentucky, Ohio and Mississippi passed similar measures in the preceding weeks. It’s important to note that all of these laws, including Alabama’s, will be delayed in the courts for some time — until Roe v. Wade is overturned, assuming it ever is. Clinics in states with new anti-abortion laws have reported a surge in calls from women who are unsure whether they can still come in for their appointments. They can. Though far too many women in the United States can’t afford or otherwise don’t have access to abortion — and already didn’t before this year — the procedure is legal in America today.
The states with these new laws each have a community of reproductive-rights advocates who’ve seen the writing on the wall and have been preparing for the worst. Among them are the Kentucky Health Justice Network; Access Reproductive Care-Southeast, which works in states including Mississippi and Alabama; the Yellowhammer Fund in Alabama; Naral Pro-Choice Ohio; and Women Have Options, also in Ohio. The web companion to “Handbook for a Post-Roe America,” the timely new book by Robin Marty, contains up-to-date information about groups working in all parts of the country.Beyond making donations, those looking to support abortion access can look into becoming a clinic escort — someone who walks women into a clinic, helping shield them from the anti-abortion protesters who often shout epithets at or try to mislead or confuse patients. While Alabama and Georgia are understandably dominating headlines, clinics all over the country — including in blue states — need you, too. Contact your local clinic directly to ask about how you can help or sign up to be a Planned Parenthood volunteer here.
There will also be more and more political debate over abortion pills in this country, and it’s important to educate yourself about this discussion. Women who can’t make it to an abortion clinic are increasingly acquiring these drugs, often a safe option, on their own. That trend is sure to continue as abortion access gets rolled back across the country. Here’s a good primer on the issue and a hotline for women who have legal questions about acquiring and taking such medications.
Don’t overlook your local elections. As important as it is to have national leaders who support reproductive rights, the battle over abortion access is still largely a state issue for now. The makeup of your City Council can also matter a great deal — decisions about zoning and even noise ordinances can make the difference between a clinic staying open or being forced to close.
Finally, continue to talk about this issue — with friends and family and fellow members of your community. Don’t let abortion rights fade from consciousness as these extreme laws become America’s new normal.
With economic corridor’s viability on the line, Beijing searches for an answer to Pakistan terrorism
By Sarah Zheng
Gwadar hotel attack increases security concerns around Beijing’s major development drive in Pakistan.
Separatist insurgents vow to target more Chinese investments. The deadly terrorist attack at a luxury hotel in Gwadar has intensified security concerns around Beijing’s major development drive in Pakistan, including a strategic deep-sea port, as separatist insurgents vow to target more Chinese investments.Five Pakistanis were killed on May 11 when gunmen stormed the Zaver Pearl Continental Hotel, the southern city’s first five-star hotel, in the second major terror attack in recent weeks in restive Balochistan province.
The violence came after 14 people, including Pakistani military personnel, were killed last month by terrorists while heading from Gwadar along the Makran Coastal Highway.
Both attacks were claimed to be the work of the Baloch Liberation Army.
The group’s official spokesman threatened “even harsher” attacks and demanded China withdraw from projects in Balochistan, where insurgents have fought for years for independence and control of local resources. The BLA, which Pakistan designated a terrorist group, also took responsibility for killing seven Pakistanis at the Chinese consulate in Karachi in November.
Pakistan terror attack highlights risks Chinese firms face
The security situation in Pakistan has hamstrung China’s operation of the Gwadar deep-sea port by the Arabian Sea. The project is a “central pillar” of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a US$62 billion network of roads, railways and pipelines linking Gwadar to northwest China’s Xinjiang region.
Analysts say security risks threatening Chinese interests in Pakistan – including jihadist groups targeting China for its mass detention and mistreatment of ethnic Uygur Muslims in Xinjiang – cannot be readily resolved in the near-term. But they stress that finding a solution to the violence is critical to the economic corridor’s continuing viability. CPEC is considered a linchpin of Beijing’s investment behemoth, the “Belt and Road Initiative”, a trade and infrastructure plan that spans Europe, Africa and Asia, reviving the ancient Silk Road trade route.
Beijing-based military observer Zhou Chenming said both the flagging Pakistan economy – hampered by high inflation, weak growth and limited foreign currency reserves – and security concerns cast doubt on the Gwadar port’s commercial viability. It is very difficult, he said, for Chinese people to conduct business in the region, where open roads can be blocked by bandits and other bad actors.
“Pakistan’s economy is not very good, and this port has become very wasteful … under these circumstances, including with the hotel attack, how can China conduct its business? The roads and traffic cannot even be maintained.”
Following the Gwadar hotel attack, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran Khan condemned attempts, particularly in Balochistan, to “sabotage our economic projects and prosperity”.China’s foreign ministry said it believed in the Pakistani government and military’s ability to maintain the country’s national security and stability, and thanked Pakistani security forces for safeguarding Gwadar.“The risks in Pakistan are still grave,” Zhao Lijian, deputy chief of commission at the Chinese embassy in Islamabad, said in a text message. “China will continue to strengthen its security cooperation with Pakistan.”
Islamabad has taken measures to ensure the security of CPEC projects and workers, including setting up a 15,000-strong special security force in 2016.
But while belt and road investments are strategically important to Beijing, observers say China would be unlikely to put its own military personnel in Pakistan to protect CPEC projects, since doing so would exacerbate tensions domestically and with New Delhi. India has objected to the economic corridor on territorial sovereignty grounds for running through Kashmir, a disputed region that both Delhi and Islamabad claim.
Ejaz Hussein, a political and military analyst at Iqra University in Islamabad, said the Pakistani government should bolster security for the Gwadar port and other CPEC projects, including enhancing intelligence networks in the area in collaboration with China. But posting Chinese military personnel in Pakistan would be counterproductive, as it would trigger both “unimaginable attention” and “severe criticism”, he said.“It may not be prudent on the part of the Chinese government and its private and public companies to develop an interest in taking over CPEC in governance and security terms,” Hussain said.“Nor will it be a suitable and affordable policy on the part of Pakistan in the context of internal and external security challenges, ethnic divide, increasing intolerance, political instability and the contested character of the corridor.”
Gwadar has long been recognised for its strategic location, which the US Geological Survey identified in 1954 as suitable for a deep-sea port. The Gwadar port was developed decades later in the early 2000s, and began operation in 2007 under the Port of Singapore Authority. But after Pakistan failed to “meet contractual obligations and resolve land issues”, it allowed Singapore to quit its 40-year operating contract for the port, and handed over control to China.
Now the takeover of the port by China Overseas Port Holding Company (COPHC), a state-owned enterprise, has stoked fears in neighbouring India that Beijing could use the port as a naval outpost to secure access to key shipping lanes in the Indian Ocean, as part of a “string of pearls” strategy.
Geeta Kochhar, a Chinese foreign policy specialist at Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi, said security has been a major factor for CPEC, given the extreme scale of Chinese financing and labour costs that have broader implications for China’s western borders.“Making Gwadar port useful for Chinese military purposes may be China’s long-term plan, but the situation as of now demands that China places greater pressure on Pakistan to deal with the issues at home,” she said.“In case China really wants to make the port commercially viable, it will need to engage with other actors of the region, including India, to find solutions to deal with terrorist threats.”
Forget nuclear war with Pakistan. Here’s the real threat to Modi
CPEC has also faced a backlash over a perceived lack of transparency in its projects, the disproportionate benefits for Chinese firms and wealthier areas of Pakistan, and for harbouring Chinese geopolitical intentions.But officials have pushed back against criticism. A joint statement from China and Pakistan after Khan’s trip to Beijing in November dismissed the “growing negative propaganda against CPEC and expressed determination to safeguard the CPEC project from all threats”.Zhang Baozhong, chairman and chief executive of COPHC, told Pakistani media Geo TV that the company felt “safe and secure” in Pakistan, despite the recent terror attacks.Although the Gwadar port had been plagued previously by run-down roads, poor water and sewage systems, and limited business activities, he said the port now generated US$100 million in revenue each year.“The enemies of China and Pakistan are hell-bent on unleashing extremism and terrorism to sabotage public-centric projects, but the Gwadar Port and the CPEC are on track to achieve their targets … We stand unthreatened. We feel safe and secure in Pakistan.” Zhang and COPHC did not respond to requests for further comment.
Nawabzada Zaheer Barakzai, chairman of the logistics provider Mega Movers Pakistan, which maintains a private container terminal facility for Gwadar Port operations in partnership with COPHC, urged the Khan administration to take more serious measures to secure the CPEC and bring stakeholders to the negotiating table. The Pakistan army had already increased its security to the Gwadar port after the hotel attack, he said. “The development of the port will not be compromised or stopped in any condition,” said Zaheer, who is also chief of the Barakzai tribe in Balochistan.
He said he was working with the relevant agencies to increase security and also on a joint strategy to stop such attacks, which unsettle foreign investors, from happening again.
Why China’s investment in Pakistan is the No 1 target for Balochistan separatists
A Chinese businessman based in Islamabad said he would be more aware of security issues in the future, but had not faced any “substantive problems” with safety thus far.“We know there are some incidents targeting Chinese, so we will be more careful in our company’s security measures,” the businessman said, declining to be identified out of privacy concerns.“Our office has security guards, surveillance equipment and an antitheft system. The security situation is better for us since we are in the Pakistani capital, but we cannot ignore the fact that there are terrorists and extremists, with the channels and methods to come in.”Hussein said it was natural for Beijing and Chinese businesses to raise security concerns after the latest attack, but no deaths of Chinese nationals directly related to CPEC had been reported.“Pakistan and China ought to [work] together to think innovatively to enhance security of CPEC logistics and workforce,” he said. “Both CPEC and the belt and road are inherently interdependent. Any harmful occurrence to one would impact the other in negative terms.”
#Pakistan - #PTI government pushes country into a nasty corner - Painful years ahead
The IMF package belatedly sought by the PTI is likely to be announced after the Fund is satisfied that its demands have been met to its satisfaction in the forthcoming budget. The agreement was brokered without being put before the Cabinet, let alone the National Assembly.
The rupee has continued to fall with US dollar touching an all-time high at Rs 150 on Friday. Even if the decline stops here it has already played enough havoc with the economy. Had the decision to take recourse to the IMF been taken right after the PTI took over, the big slide in the rupee could have been avoided with everyone knowing the course the government was going to take.
The KSE-100 plunged nearly 900 points in intra-day trading on Friday as investors offloaded stocks following the devaluation of rupee in inter-bank market. The market would stabilize with time but who will cover the big losses incurred by thousands of small investors?
Highly worrisome for the business community, the investors and the common man are the uncertainties related to the FATF decision. A further downgrading would endanger Pakistan’s relations with the IMF and private international banks. With downgraded ranking by international rating agencies, it might not remain feasible to launch government securities.
Why was the decision delayed to place 10 more organisations on the list of proscribed outfits, till days before a Pakistan team led by the finance secretary left for a face-to-face meeting with the APG? The action according to Interior Ministry was taken in pursuance of the National Action Plan (NAP). But the NAP was put into action years back in January 2015.
No oil, gas reserves found in Pakistani waters
–Former OGDC CEO says it is 15th off-shore oil and gas exploration well that has turned out dry
–Planned drilling of 5,470 meters at Kekra-I well was achieved at a cost of Rs14 billion
Hours after Prime Minister Imran Khan told the nation to expect good news regarding the discovery of oil and gas reserves off Karachi coast, his special assistant on petroleum Nadeem Babar announced that offshore drilling in Kekra-I well has been stopped owing to no oil reserves.
Amid much hype, Pakistan was hopeful of finding large oil and gas reserves in its territorial waters in the Arabian Sea.
The prime minister, on numerous occasions, said he was still hopeful that Pakistan would discover major gas reserves in offshore drilling being carried out in the Arabian Sea.He said the nation could receive good news within two weeks. The prime minister asked the nation to offer special prayers so that the expectations attached to the drilling project come true. Imran Khan said, if found, the gas reserves would be enough to meet Pakistan’s needs for the next 50 years.According to former CEO of Oil and Gas Development Authority (OGDCL) Pervaiz Akmal, this would be some 14/15th off-shore oil and gas exploration well that turns out dry, after familiar wishful speculations by people at the helm of affairs.“It’s so sad that we still continue leaping into these multi-million dollar exercises, almost blindfolded, often to facilitate lucrative businesses for multi-national and local private companies, with deep-rooted vested interests at home and abroad,” he said.
In a comment on the involvement of Exxon and other companies, he said the “idling Italian deep sea drilling rig got a lucrative business, and both ENI and Exxon would go home laughing is no secret”.
“It’s OGDCL & PPL [Pakistan Petroleum Limited] which have paid through their nose.
He said the energy blues of Pakistan would continue, both on and offshore, unless it corrects the direction and intent with utmost sincerity.Kekra exploration, a joint venture of four oil exploration companies completed the offshore drilling process after four months on May 15.A consortium comprising Exxon Mobil, ENI, Oil and Gas Development Company, and Pakistan Petroleum Limited conducted the drill stem test to determine the real size of the oil and gas reserves in the Kekra-1 well, located around 280 kilometres away from Karachi.
The planned drilling of 5,470 meters was achieved at a cost of Rs14 billion.
The Drill Stem Test (DST) would be completed in the next three days. After the completion of the DST, a report will be prepared about the total quantity of the oil and gas reserves within a week, sources further said.
In initial estimates, the availability of around nine trillion cubic feet of gas with a large quantity of oil was assessed in the Kekra-1 well.
Due to the critical situations faced in the Kekra-1 well drilling, the exploration venture had to spend an additional $100 million in order to procure surplus steel and cement etc to drill the Kekra-1 well in another direction.
#Pakistan - The Currency Turmoil
It cannot be said that the devaluation was not expected. The rupee had been devaluing at record accelerating levels for the earlier part of the year. Indeed it can be argued that the US $6 billion load that Pakistan borrowed from the IMF took so long precisely because our government was trying to mitigate the harsher outcomes m financial package. Yet it seems that the wait was not perhaps worth it considering the rupee did immediately devaluate, leaving the currency market to turmoil.
The decision to drop our pride and allow devaluation of our currency is always thought to be better for the long-run. The devaluation is due to lifting the fixed rate and allowing a market-based exchange rate mechanism, which will see limited intervention by the central bank now. It can be argued that the State Banks was spending millions to maintain an artificially low exchange rate, and this system was not sustainable considering our depleting reserves and decreasing export numbers.
Yet just because the fall was expected does not make the wound hurt any less. The devaluation will have a steep political price for the government, which is already facing backlash for inflation of gas and electricity prices. The fact that the SBP governor is a former employee of the IMF will not go unnoticed by those blaming the government for the SBP’s policy. A weaker currency is likely to fuel the inflation, which is already over 8pc, with power and fuel prices hit especially hard. The currency fall can also be debilitating to business owners and traders who import materials and products from abroad. And of course, those who will be hit the hardest will be the middle and lower classes, who are already suffocated in a crippled economy.
To those stakeholders, the promise that these harsh measures are good for the long-run are not of much reassurance. There is bound to be further backlash against the government, which has responded by wisely making a committee to control devaluation.
https://nation.com.pk/18-May-2019/the-currency-turmoil
#Pakistan - #PPP - Bilawal invites Maryam Nawaz, other opposition leaders to Iftar dinner
Chairman Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) Bilawal Bhutto Zardari Friday contacted the opposition parties’ leaders to reach the same page on launching a joint anti-government movementafter Ramazan.
Sources within the PPP said Bilawal telephoned Maryam on Friday and invited her and other Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) leaders to Sunday’s Iftar dinner.
Bilawal also telephoned Jamiat Ulema Islam-Fazl (JUI-F) chief Maulana Fazlur Rahman and Awami National Party (ANP) head Asfand Yar Wali Khan to extend an invitation to them, sources said.
Among other leaders invited to the Iftar dinner are Sirajul Haq, Mehmood Khan Achakzai, Akhtar Mengal, Aftab Sherpao, and Shah Awais Noorani, they said.
Speaking to a private source, PML-N spokesperson Marriyum Aurangzeb confirmed that a PML-N delegation led by Maryam Nawaz would attend Sunday’s Iftar dinner to be hosted by the PPP chairman.
Aurangzeb said the PML-N delegation would include Opposition Leader in Punjab Assembly Hamza Shehbaz and other senior party leaders.
پاکستان کو 6 ارب ڈالرز کے بدلے دینے کتنے ہوں گے؟
عبداللہ جان
معاشی ماہرین کے مطابق ڈالر کی قیمت کو سٹیٹ بینک کی سرپرستی سے آزاد رکھنے کی شرط پاکستان کے لیے بہت نقصان دہ ہو سکتی ہے۔
پاکستان اور انٹرنیشنل مانیٹری فنڈ (آئی ایم ایف) کے درمیان گذشتہ دنوں چھ ارب ڈالرز کے ایک قرضے پر اتفاق ہوا جو اسلام آباد کو درپیش وقتی مالی مشکلات سے اگلے تین برس میں مدد دے گا، لیکن سوال یہ ہے کہ پاکستان کو یہ قرضہ لوٹاتے وقت کتنی رقم ادا کرنا ہوگی؟
اقتصادی ماہرین کے مطابق اس بات کا انحصار پاکستانی معیشت کے کئی پہلوؤں پر ہوگا لیکن اس کا سب سے زیادہ تعلق امریکی ڈالر کی قدر پر بھی ہو گا۔ ایک عام آدمی کی زبان میں اسے واضح کرنے کی کوشش کرتے ہیں۔
ماہرین کہتے ہیں آئندہ تین سالوں میں ڈالر کی قیمت میں جس قدر اضافہ ہوگا پاکستان کو اسی حساب سے آئی ایم ایف کو قرضے کی رقم اور سود واپس کرنا پڑے گا، جو یقینا تین سال بعد پاکستان کو آج ملنے والی رقم سے بہت زیادہ ہوگا۔
اتوار کو آئی ایم ایف کے ساتھ معاہدے کی خبر آنے کے اگلے ہی روز پاکستان میں ڈالر کی قیمت 145روپے سے بڑھ کر 146روپے ہوگئی اور اس وقت 150 کے اردگرد گھوم رہی ہے۔ گذشتہ ایک برس کے دوران ڈالر کی قیمت میں 17 فیصد اضافہ دیکھا گیا ہے۔
سابق وفاقی وزیر خزانہ مفتاح اسماعیل نے انڈپینڈنٹ کو بتایا کہ اگر ادائیگی کے وقت ڈالر کی قیمت 200 روپے فی ڈالر ہوئی تو پاکستان کو چھ کے بجائے آٹھ ارب ڈالرز لوٹانے پڑیں گے۔ ’اسی طرح بدقسمتی سے اگر ڈالر کی قیمت 300 روپے تک پہنچ گئی تو پاکستان کو 12 ارب ڈالرز دینا ہوں گے، جبکہ تین سے چار فیصد کے حساب سے سود کی رقم اس کے علاوہ ہو گی۔‘
ان کا کہنا تھا: ڈالر پاکستانی معیشت پر اثرانداز ہوتا ہے اور وجہ یہ ہے کہ ہم درآمدات پر ڈالر خرچ کرتے ہیں۔ اس لیے ڈالر کی قیمت میں کمی یا زیادتی سے پاکستان میں اشیا کے نرخوں پر فرق پڑتا ہے۔
مفتاح اسماعیل کے مطابق اگر قرض کی ادائیگی کے وقت ڈالر مہنگا ہو گا تو وہ ڈالر حاصل کرنے میں ہماری معیشت زیادہ اثر انداز ہو گی۔
حکومت پاکستان اور آئی ایم ایف کے درمیان معاہدے کی تمام تفصیلات عام نہیں کی گئی ہیں لہذا معلوم نہیں کہ پاکستان کو اس قرضے کی ادائیگی کب سے، کتنے عرصے میں اور کس شرح سود پر کرنا ہو گی۔ یہی وجہ ہے کہ یہ درست اندازہ لگانا مشکل ہے کہ پاکستان کو کتنی رقم ادا کرنا ہو گی۔
معاہدے کی شرائط کے تحت پاکستان پر پابندی لگائی گئی ہے کہ ڈالر کی قیمت کا تعین سٹیٹ بینک نہیں بلکہ مارکیٹ خود طے کرے گی۔
معاشی ماہرین نے ڈالر کی قیمت کو سٹیٹ بینک کی سرپرستی سے آزاد کرنے کو ملک کے لیے خطرناک قرار دیتے ہوئے کہا اس کے نتیجے میں ڈالر کی قیمت میں کئی گنا اضافہ ہو سکتا ہے۔
مفتاح اسماعیل نے بتایا کہ ڈالر کو پوری طرح آزاد نہیں چھوڑا جائے گا بلکہ اس کی قیمت کو کنٹرول کرنے کے لیے حکومت ایک ارب ڈالرز خرچ کرے گی اور آئی ایم ایف سے اس بات کی اجازت لے لی گئی ہے۔
معاہدے کی شرائط کے اثرات پر بات کرتے ہوئے اسلام آباد میں نیشنل یونیورسٹی آف سائنس اینڈ ٹیکنالوجی (نسٹ) کے پروفیسر ڈاکٹر اشفاق حسن خان کا کہنا تھا کہ ڈالر کی قیمت کو یوں آزاد چھوڑنا ایک تباہ کن قدم ہوگا۔
انہوں نے بتایا کہ قرضوں کی ادائیگی تک ڈالر کی قیمت میں بہت اضافہ ہو جائے گا اور اُس وقت اس قیمت کے حساب سے ادائیگی کرنا پڑے گی جو بہت زیادہ ہو گی۔
تاہم بعض معاشی ماہرین اس تھیوری سے اختلاف رکھتے ہیں کہ پاکستان کو ڈالر کی قیمت زیادہ ہونے کی صورت میں آئی ایم ایف کو زیادہ ادائیگی کرنا ہو گی۔
معاشی امور پر لکھنے والے صحافی ذیشان حیدر نے انڈیپنڈنٹ اردو کو بتایا کہ ڈالر روپوں میں نہیں خریدا جا سکتا۔ اس لیے لوکل مارکیٹ میں اس کی قیمت کا زیادہ یا کم ہونا آئی ایم ایف کو کی جانے والی ادائیگی پر اثر انداز ہو گا۔ انہوں نے کہا کہ ملک میں اقتصادی سرگرمی آنے والے دنوں میں ڈالر کی قیمت کا تعین کرے گی۔
ذیشان حیدر کے مطابق برآمدات بڑھا کر اور درآمدات میں کمی لاکر ڈالر کی قیمت کو ایک خاص حد کے اندر رکھا جا سکے گا۔
وزیراعلیٰ پنجاب کے مشیر برائے خزانہ ڈاکٹر سلمان شاہ نے بھی اتفاق کیا کہ تجارتی خسارہ کم کر کے ڈالر کی قیمت میں استحکام لایا جا سکتا ہے۔ ’پاکستان کے پاس کوئی دوسرا راستہ نہیں۔ چینلج بڑا ہے لیکن یہ تو کرنا پڑے گا، تبھی ادارے اور معیشت ٹھیک ہو سکتی ہے۔‘
ماہرین کے مطابق ڈالر کی قدر کو قابو میں رکھنے کے لیے انتہائی ضروری ہے کہ برآمدات اور بیرون ملک سے آنے والی ریمیٹنس بڑھائی جائیں۔
آئی ایم ایف کی مصری مثال
نسٹ کے ڈاکٹر اشفاق حسن خان نے کہا کہ آئی ایم ایف کے ساتھ معاہدہ تکلیف دہ اور پاکستان کے لیے خطرناک ہے۔ ان کے مطابق آئی ایم ایف نے اسی طرح کی شرائط مصر پر بھی لگائیں جس کے بہت خراب نتائج سامنے آئے۔’آئی ایم ایف کے ساتھ معاہدے کے وقت مصر میں 35فیصد لوگ خط غربت سے نیچے زندگی گزار رہے تھے اور ایک ہی سال میں یہ تعداد 55 فیصد ہو گئی۔‘
ڈاکٹر اشفاق حسن خان نے سوال اٹھایا کہ دوائی ایک ہی ہو تو اس کا اثر کیسے بدل سکتا ہے؟
مالیاتی امورسے متعلق پاکستانی اخبار روزنامہ بزنس ریکارڈر میں شائع ہونے والی ایک رپورٹ کے مطابق، آئی ایم ایف پروگرام کے نتیجے میں مصر میں افراط زر صرف نو ماہ میں 13.6سے بڑھ کر 21.9 فیصد ہوگئی تھی۔ رپورٹ میں کہا گیا:’مصر اور پاکستان کے معاشی حالات بالکل مختلف ہیں اور پاکستانی معیشت کے لیے آئی ایم ایف کے مصری ماڈل سے استفادہ کرنا تقریباً ناممکن ہوگا۔‘
کیا آئی ایم ایف سیاسی ادارہ ہے؟
ماہرین کے مطابق آئی ایم ایف ایک ایسا ادارہ بنتا جا رہا ہے جوغریب ممالک کی مالی امداد سے زیادہ بڑی طاقتوں کے مفادات کو تحفظ فراہم کرنے میں دلچسپی رکھتا ہے۔ اس سلسلے میں پاکستان کے ساتھ طے پانے والے معاہدے میں ایف اے ٹی ایف سے متعلق شرط پر زیادہ تشویش کا اظہار کیا جا رہا ہے۔
سابق وفاقی وزیرمفتاح اسماعیل نے کہا:’ ایسا پہلی مرتبہ ہوا ہے کہ آئی ایم ایف معاہدے کو ایف اے ٹی ایف سے نتھی کیا گیا ہو۔‘
اشفاق حسن خان نے کہا معاہدے کی شرائط سے لگتا ہے کہ یہ’ کوئی بین الاقوامی سازش ہے جس کے ذریعے پاکستان کو پھنسانے کی کوشش کی جا رہی ہے۔‘
صحافی ذیشان حیدر کا کہنا ہے کہ چونکہ پاکستان کے امریکہ کے ساتھ تعلقات اچھے نہیں، لہذا اس کا عکس آئی ایم ایف کے ساتھ معاہدے میں بھی واضح نظر آتا ہے۔
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)