By Mahendra Ved
Pakistan is all set to join the conflict in Yemen on the side of the Saudi Arabia-led Arab combine. As has happened during its past military ventures abroad, the political leadership under Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and the military establishment appear to be on the same page on this issue.
The government is going through the motions of consultations with the military brass and seeking to evolve a consensus on the role Pakistan should play. One of the measures is convening of parliament’s joint session. A delegation led by the defence minister visited Riyadh and Nawaz Sharif paid a quick visit to Turkey for consultations before that.
But the speed and alacrity with which the prime minister publicly announced ‘cooperation’, including military help, to the Saudis has left little doubt of the intentions.
This has led to a strong perception that Pakistan has already committed to making a military contribution to the Saudi-led coalition presently bombing the Houthis in Yemen that may be followed by a land invasion. It is apprehended that both, Pakistan Air Force and later, to secure a decisive military victory, the land forces may be committed. Of the entire coalition that is emerging against the Houthis, the Zaidy Shia rebels, Pakistan and Egypt are the only two that can provide foot soldiers.
However, the public opinion remains opposed to any direct intervention, going by the English language media. As events evolve, the story could be different when it comes to the conservative classes who subscribe to Urdu and Punjabi media. They are likely to be supportive of a move that helps Saudi Arabia, the religious and spiritual home of Islam.
As fast as Nawaz Sharif was his arch critic and opposition leader Imran Khan, who said that Pakistan should be a ‘facilitator’ and should not be a ‘participant’ in the conflict. After the initial warning, however, he is likely to decide the course of action from the way the military establishment looks at the issue.
Needless to say, the Islamist parties and Sharif’s own Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) will be supportive of the country’s military involvement. They are essentially Sunni and the Yemen conflict situation is seen as a Sunni-Shia dispute.
How the Pakistan Army will view the issue is still not clear. The Yemen crisis comes when the Pakistan Army under Gen. Raheel Sharif is deeply involved in Zarb-e-Azb, fighting the Pushtun rebels in the tribal no-man’s land bordering Afghanistan for the past nine months, with no end in sight. It has been an expensive campaign. It has lost personnel, committed there in large numbers. It is also engaged in the safety, if not rehabilitation, of the large number of families displaced by this operation.
One way of looking at the army would be that it is already stretched fully and may not want to add more to the plate. But, going to Yemen is an opportunity to flex its muscles internationally, as it has done in the past.
Pakistan has always taken such opportunities and has got committed militarily at Saudi Arabia’s behest. Gen. Ziaul Haq had sent 20,000 army combatants to Saudi Arabia after there was an attack on the holy shrines in the 1980s. Saudi political support and funds played a big role in Pakistan getting involved in Afghanistan to fight the Moscow-backed government in Kabul during that decade.
The Yemen conflict comes when the US-led forces are withdrawing from Afghanistan and the Pakistan Army has to decide its strategy towards a relatively more vulnerable Kabul, and commit forces along the volatile border.
The two Sharifs are bound to work in tandem and together because the political and military interests converge in playing a role in the Yemen conflict.
Nawaz Sharif has been very close to the Saudi royalty that helped him out of Pakistan after he was removed by Gen. Pervez Musharraf. He and his family were hosted for eight years and his return home was also facilitated by Riyadh. The Saudi kingdom has helped with money grants since Nawaz took office in 2013. Personally, he may think this is his pay-back time. His political interest lies in giving the best he can to Riyadh.
Riyadh has economically bolstered each regime in Pakistan and drawn benefit from it, since Pakistan is the biggest among the Muslim nations. Riyadh has also always played a role in Pakistan’s internal affairs, choosing its favourites among the political and military leaders. Critics say Nawaz is badly compromised with the Saudis who have succeeded in getting Islamabad to toe its line on West Asia, in dealing with Syria in particular.
This is a unique conflict for Saudi Arabia and that is one reason why it needs Pakistan. This is the first military campaign in which Riyadh is involved directly in its own territory. All past involvements have been through proxies and in terms of money. The Houthis, living in mountainous terrain, are known to be good fighters.
Riyadh has got to be seen as winning decisively – else it could lose credibility and clout among the Arab nations, and generally among Muslim nations where it has an overwhelming presence.
Its claim that Iran is supporting the Houthis has been debunked by Tehran. Actually the Houthis Shias have little in common with the Shias of Iran. On the other hand, Iran has scored a major point with the international community by striking a deal with the US and the major powers over its nuclear programme. This is a deal that the two US allies in the region, Saudi Arabia, as also Israel, have severely opposed.
Much as Nawaz may wish and the army may want, it is not an easy decision for Pakistan. For one, it could exacerbate the internal situation. The biggest threat is sectarian Sunni-Shia violence. If the country gets committed militarily in Yemen fighting the Shias, the Sunni militants like Sipah-e-Sahaba and many others are bound to find justification in attacking the Shias. Already the country has witnessed attacks on Shia places of worship, the imambargahs in Peshawar, Shikarpur and other places. This is likely to increase.
The Yemen conflict and the Saudi ‘request’ for cooperation have come when there is already some criticism of Saudis because of their larger-than-life involvement in Pakistan’s internal affairs.
Madrassas funded by Saudi government and charity organizations are seen as the breeding ground for militants that Pakistan uses against India and Afghanistan, and even for ‘exports’ to Al Qaida and now ISIS operations.
Following public criticism by two federal ministers, the Saudi embassy in Islamabad, in an unprecedented denial, insisted that it funded madrassas only through the Pakistani government and its official channels. This got contradicted as the Pakistan Foreign Office has no role in madrassa funding. As for the interior ministry, the report of Saudi money into madrassa funding has come from the police chiefs of the provinces.
The sentiment among sections of the intelligentsia is that Yemen is “not our war”. But Pakistan’s record of military involvement tells a different story.
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