Pakistan: Why Wagah?

In the wake of the huge attack at Wagah that killed 57 people and injured 120, several questions require immediate attention. The first is why terrorists chose to strike at the busy crossing that marks the border between India and Pakistan. There are several explanations. One hesitates to imagine what might have happened had the bomber penetrated further into the security cordon and struck at Indian troops or citizens. With tensions along the Line of Control (LoC) already high, an incident of this magnitude could have easily pushed the situation into spiralling out of control. The attack was claimed initially by the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) but that claim was quickly rubbished by the Jamaatul Ahrar and Jundullah, TTP splinter groups that claimed the attack for themselves. This by itself shows the importance that terrorists place on creating further confusion, instability and conflict between Pakistan and India. Thankfully Indian Prime Minister (PM) Narendra Modi quickly condemned the “dastardly act of terrorism” and sent his condolences to the bereaved families though security forces on the border have been put on high alert. Second, with the attention of law enforcement agencies focused on security for Ashura processions — the expected target of Wahabi extremist terrorists — no one expected this attack, which highlights the fundamental problem while fighting terrorists waging asymmetrical war. Their strategy requires hitting us where we are weak and retreating where we are strong. They retreated en masse in the face of Operation Zarb-e-Azb’s firepower and ignored tightly secured Muharram activities, instead choosing a relatively soft, symbolic target. Presumably if the attack had gone as planned, Pakistan and India would have been at daggers drawn and the terrorists would have gained more space and time to reorganise. A spate of attacks on civilian and military targets in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) in the months since the operation began show that the militants retain the ability to strike. The operation may have disrupted militant networks but it has not completely dismantled them. Things will become more difficult as NATO transitions out of Afghanistan over the next two months. This is a result of not treating the phenomenon of terrorism as a whole and focusing on partial surgical operations against select terrorist groups.

Clearly the time for triumphalism and complacency in the fight against terrorism is over and civilians are again in the line of fire. Director General (DG) Pakistan Rangers Tahir Javed Khan confirmed that the bomber passed the first security cordon while wearing a suicide vest packed with between 10 to 15 kilograms of “high quality” explosives that were wrapped around with nails and ball bearings, indicating that this was an anti-personnel device designed to inflict mass casualties. Indeed, the death toll may rise as some patients remain in critical condition at Ghurki Hospital where most of the injured were taken. How the bomber evaded the first security cordon is a question that must be asked though the obvious answer is that security arrangements are being made without a full understanding of the fact that terrorists can strike anywhere and prefer soft targets. Despite the government banning citizens from going to Wagah for three days, some people went to the border in an act of defiance against terrorism. If anything this tells us that the government is ignoring its largest resource in the fight against terrorism — the citizenry. Most Pakistanis vehemently oppose terrorism but turning this inchoate opposition into real public action requires the government to spread awareness of what we are fighting and why. A public narrative that includes messaging on broadcast and print media listing public safety measures and details on how to identify and report suspected terrorists is essential to activate the citizenry. While security agencies are trying their level best, the simple fact is not all spaces can be guarded and unguarded spaces are more attractive to terrorists. Every successful attack must be a learning experience for the security agencies and the government. Ritual condemnations and announcements of compensation are simply not enough. The strategy against terrorists must treat the phenomenon as a whole, including the root causes of terrorism such as poverty and illiteracy, and responses must be coordinated, fluid, and based on intelligence sharing.