According to Imran Khan, come what may, his much-ballyhooed "decisive rally" will be held in Islamabad on November 30. Interior Minister Chaudhry Nisar Ali finds no fault in PTI chief's plan so long it is peaceful. However, beyond these apparently concurring positions there are quite a few "ifs" and "buts", the most daunting being their difference on the venue of the rally. The PTI chief is determined to hold the rally on the Constitution Avenue/D-Chowk, which is part of the Red Zone, warning the government "if you create hurdles we will face them, and we are ready to go to jail". At his rally in Gujranwala two days ago he was more explicit: "On November 30, there will be a decisive battle between status quo and us. It will be decided on the day whether they (government) win or we form a Naya Pakistan". "If they (PTI) have plans for a political activity, they will be provided security. But if their purpose is to attack the government, the law will come into action," says Chaudhry Nisar. Unlike previously, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's patience seems to be wearing thin. He says it is the responsibility of the government to protect and preserve the law and constitution. Given its bitter experience, how the 'Azadi' and 'Inqilabi' marches violated the mutually agreed agenda as their marchers moved into the Red Zone in violation of the agreed venue and the timeline for their presence in the Capital, the government is now prepared to take a hard line. Nowhere else but at the D-Chowk would the PTI like to hold its November 30 show of force. The battle-lines have been drawn. Barring some kind of divine intervention or third-party 'advice', Islamabad is all set to be the venue of a possible Armageddon. While the self-assured hubris among minister that is inflated by their reading that 'dharna' politics has had its last hurrah, Imran's confidence is pumped by his massive rallies in Punjab and Sindh. Will he come heading a more spirited and better equipped march, we will know in case there is a battle royale. The government, however, is unwilling to take a chance. Some 15,000 police and paramilitary personnel would be deployed ahead of the rally. And should the need arise the government will call in the army in aid of civil power under Article 245 of the Constitution, which was there on the site till early this week when it was withdrawn at the completion of its three-month term, under a new ordinance.
The die is cast and the political narrative looks ominous. Even when the Nawaz government, thanks to the PPP and other 'like-minded' political stakeholders' consistent support exudes confidence, an eerie feeling of uncertainty permeates the national landscape. There is a huge unknown about the objective behind the PTI's plan to flex its muscles in the Capital on November 30. Tahirul Qadri has returned with a new agenda substituting his "Green Revolution" with electoral politics. He wants a two-thirds parliamentary majority to change the "corrupt and oppressive" government. Jamaat-i-Islami's Sirajul Haq has called upon the people to work for enforcement of an 'Islamic system,' for which he will give a 'line of action'. But, what has cocked up many an ear are the unannounced ambassadorial calls on the PTI chief. To both American Ambassador Richard Olson and Chinese Ambassador Sun Weidong, Imran Khan is said to have shown evidence of rigging in last year's general elections that he will put on public display over this week. Of course, a government that comes to power through vote rigging remains suspect internationally. But no less worrying for the United States and China would be the lingering political instability in Pakistan, particularly at a time when the region is undergoing critical change. One would be profoundly naive to believe that the two offered any kind of mediation, but it is quite likely that they advised against things coming to a head. Even to the most intractable contentions, there is always an out of the box solution.
The PTI has been on the ground at the same very venue for over 100 days, but it has failed to achieve its objective: resignation of prime minister. Moreover, its protracted protest has failed to lead to an investigation into vote rigging allegations. As for the rallies the PTI has held many, all over the place, and some were mammoth in size. But there too, no fresh ground was broken in terms of Imran Khan getting his mission accomplished. The question is: how then the upcoming rally in Islamabad is going to be "decisive"? Maybe we would have the answer on D-day, when he would make an 'important announcement', and the style of his demonstration would also change. Imran Khan has a dream he doesn't seem to be waking up from. Will his 'tigers' occupy the government's high offices and parliament building? Not this time, according to Chaudhry Nisar Ali. And, finally, one would like to ask the interior minister how come the absconding Imran Khan and Tahirul Qadri remain beyond the long arm of law?
Tuesday, November 25, 2014
Pakistan: November 30: 'decisive battle'?
According to Imran Khan, come what may, his much-ballyhooed "decisive rally" will be held in Islamabad on November 30. Interior Minister Chaudhry Nisar Ali finds no fault in PTI chief's plan so long it is peaceful. However, beyond these apparently concurring positions there are quite a few "ifs" and "buts", the most daunting being their difference on the venue of the rally. The PTI chief is determined to hold the rally on the Constitution Avenue/D-Chowk, which is part of the Red Zone, warning the government "if you create hurdles we will face them, and we are ready to go to jail". At his rally in Gujranwala two days ago he was more explicit: "On November 30, there will be a decisive battle between status quo and us. It will be decided on the day whether they (government) win or we form a Naya Pakistan". "If they (PTI) have plans for a political activity, they will be provided security. But if their purpose is to attack the government, the law will come into action," says Chaudhry Nisar. Unlike previously, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's patience seems to be wearing thin. He says it is the responsibility of the government to protect and preserve the law and constitution. Given its bitter experience, how the 'Azadi' and 'Inqilabi' marches violated the mutually agreed agenda as their marchers moved into the Red Zone in violation of the agreed venue and the timeline for their presence in the Capital, the government is now prepared to take a hard line. Nowhere else but at the D-Chowk would the PTI like to hold its November 30 show of force. The battle-lines have been drawn. Barring some kind of divine intervention or third-party 'advice', Islamabad is all set to be the venue of a possible Armageddon. While the self-assured hubris among minister that is inflated by their reading that 'dharna' politics has had its last hurrah, Imran's confidence is pumped by his massive rallies in Punjab and Sindh. Will he come heading a more spirited and better equipped march, we will know in case there is a battle royale. The government, however, is unwilling to take a chance. Some 15,000 police and paramilitary personnel would be deployed ahead of the rally. And should the need arise the government will call in the army in aid of civil power under Article 245 of the Constitution, which was there on the site till early this week when it was withdrawn at the completion of its three-month term, under a new ordinance.
The die is cast and the political narrative looks ominous. Even when the Nawaz government, thanks to the PPP and other 'like-minded' political stakeholders' consistent support exudes confidence, an eerie feeling of uncertainty permeates the national landscape. There is a huge unknown about the objective behind the PTI's plan to flex its muscles in the Capital on November 30. Tahirul Qadri has returned with a new agenda substituting his "Green Revolution" with electoral politics. He wants a two-thirds parliamentary majority to change the "corrupt and oppressive" government. Jamaat-i-Islami's Sirajul Haq has called upon the people to work for enforcement of an 'Islamic system,' for which he will give a 'line of action'. But, what has cocked up many an ear are the unannounced ambassadorial calls on the PTI chief. To both American Ambassador Richard Olson and Chinese Ambassador Sun Weidong, Imran Khan is said to have shown evidence of rigging in last year's general elections that he will put on public display over this week. Of course, a government that comes to power through vote rigging remains suspect internationally. But no less worrying for the United States and China would be the lingering political instability in Pakistan, particularly at a time when the region is undergoing critical change. One would be profoundly naive to believe that the two offered any kind of mediation, but it is quite likely that they advised against things coming to a head. Even to the most intractable contentions, there is always an out of the box solution.
The PTI has been on the ground at the same very venue for over 100 days, but it has failed to achieve its objective: resignation of prime minister. Moreover, its protracted protest has failed to lead to an investigation into vote rigging allegations. As for the rallies the PTI has held many, all over the place, and some were mammoth in size. But there too, no fresh ground was broken in terms of Imran Khan getting his mission accomplished. The question is: how then the upcoming rally in Islamabad is going to be "decisive"? Maybe we would have the answer on D-day, when he would make an 'important announcement', and the style of his demonstration would also change. Imran Khan has a dream he doesn't seem to be waking up from. Will his 'tigers' occupy the government's high offices and parliament building? Not this time, according to Chaudhry Nisar Ali. And, finally, one would like to ask the interior minister how come the absconding Imran Khan and Tahirul Qadri remain beyond the long arm of law?
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