Following the two presidential elections in Pakistan (2013) and Afghanistan (2014), both countries now have new presidents in office.
The relationship between Pakistan and Afghanistan has been mainly based on mutual distrust and interpreted through a security paradigm. This needs to change because both countries share a long history, ethnic ties, lingual similarities and a similar religious background. Therefore, this relationship should not only be restricted to security-related matters.
The new president of Afghanistan, Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai, offers an excellent opportunity to realize this dream. One of the first things he did directly after assuming the office of the presidency was to hold out an olive branch to his Pakistani counterpart, Mamnoon Hussain, and the Pakistani people. Having offered to develop and widen bilateral ties with Pakistan, Ashraf Ghani made a great step forward. Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's positive approach to Ashraf Ghani's step is an important new beginning in bilateral relations.
The economy is an important issue behind the problems between the two countries since millions of Afghan people have had to flee their country over the last four decades and settled along the borders of Pakistan. However, simply improving economic relations will not achieve positive results if there is no stability in Afghanistan and a lack of security in both countries generally.
In order to turn the tide, Pakistan first needs to eliminate the multi-head system. Though of course Pakistan doesn't have two leaders in action, it is very well known that the Pakistani army could interfere in government business so that the dissimilarity in methods between civilian leadership and the Pakistani army becomes significant.
Pakistan's contribution to post-2014 Afghanistan will be directly proportional to Pakistan's own security, stability and economic welfare. The better the situation in Afghanistan in the post-2014 era, the better the future is for Pakistan.
According to a recent report published by the World Bank, Afghanistan is the worst country to invest in in Asia and the seventh worst in the entire world. As indicated in the report, this is a result of security threats related to the increased number of deadly attacks during the summer, the decreasing amount of international aid being provided since the withdrawal of NATO forces, corruption issues and many other internal problems that the brand new Ashraf Ghani administration is facing. Among them, Pakistan could help Afghanistan in terms of security threats and declining international aid, if not more. As long as Afghanistan faces these problems, they will continue to have a fragile investment environment, which will have spillover effects on Pakistan as well.
The anti-government demonstrations, led by leader of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) Imran Khan and an Islamic scholar of Sufism and founder and leader of the Pakistan Awami Tehreek (PAT), Tahir-ul Qadri, that have been going on since August have damaged the profile of the Sharif government. These demonstrations led the Pakistani army to interfere in politics as a mediator between the demonstrators and the Sharif government. After nine years of military rule in Pakistan between 1999 and 2008, Asif Ali Zardari became president of the country. He was then replaced by Mamnoon Hussain in 2013 through a democratic election. Since then, the influence of the Pakistani military establishment has been on the decline. However, the reappearance of the Pakistani army in daily politics is not a good sign for the country's democratic process.
According to a recent report titled "Resetting Pakistan's Relations with Afghanistan" published by the International Crisis Group (ICG), even though Pakistan has underlined its backing for a "united Afghanistan" several times, during a Crisis Group interview a former Pakistani military official conceded that the "defense establishment" differentiates a "Pashtun Afghanistan" and an "Afghanistan of others” that includes other ethnic groups such as the Tajiks, Uzbeks and Hazaras.
This military perspective has many issues behind it, including the close relations between Afghanistan and India that are fundamentally motivated by enmity towards Pakistan, the release of high-profile Taliban commanders/leaders depending on Pakistan's interests, the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) of Pakistan's relationship with the Afghan Taliban, the United States' financial assistance to Pakistan arising from the ongoing war in Afghanistan and so forth. An approach to Afghanistan under the influence of this perspective cannot succeed. The ICG report also remarks that the Pakistani military's possible prevention of Afghan President Ashraf Ghani's intention to start negotiations with the Taliban and Hizb-e İslami could weaken the Pakistani prime minister's endeavors for a better relationship with Afghanistan.
Therefore, the Pakistani administration should take foreign policy in hand in order to implement its priorities. Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif continues to be committed to peace with Afghanistan; however, if his administration does not take any action, no changes can be realized. Reinforcing relations with neighboring countries, including Afghanistan, is a must for economic recovery in Pakistan. Acknowledging the fact that it is too hard to deal with the Pakistani army in terms of controlling the security-related issues and foreign policy for the Nawaz Sharif government and that it would be fanciful to think that this will change in a short span of time, the Sharif government should redirect bilateral relations with Afghanistan beyond the realm of security issues.
Enhancing economic ties between the two countries and providing legal opportunities for the millions of Afghan refugees to stay in Pakistan would be a good start to reviving the floundering relationship.
Friday, November 7, 2014
Pakistan-Afghanistan relations in the post-2014 era
Following the two presidential elections in Pakistan (2013) and Afghanistan (2014), both countries now have new presidents in office.
The relationship between Pakistan and Afghanistan has been mainly based on mutual distrust and interpreted through a security paradigm. This needs to change because both countries share a long history, ethnic ties, lingual similarities and a similar religious background. Therefore, this relationship should not only be restricted to security-related matters.
The new president of Afghanistan, Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai, offers an excellent opportunity to realize this dream. One of the first things he did directly after assuming the office of the presidency was to hold out an olive branch to his Pakistani counterpart, Mamnoon Hussain, and the Pakistani people. Having offered to develop and widen bilateral ties with Pakistan, Ashraf Ghani made a great step forward. Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's positive approach to Ashraf Ghani's step is an important new beginning in bilateral relations.
The economy is an important issue behind the problems between the two countries since millions of Afghan people have had to flee their country over the last four decades and settled along the borders of Pakistan. However, simply improving economic relations will not achieve positive results if there is no stability in Afghanistan and a lack of security in both countries generally.
In order to turn the tide, Pakistan first needs to eliminate the multi-head system. Though of course Pakistan doesn't have two leaders in action, it is very well known that the Pakistani army could interfere in government business so that the dissimilarity in methods between civilian leadership and the Pakistani army becomes significant.
Pakistan's contribution to post-2014 Afghanistan will be directly proportional to Pakistan's own security, stability and economic welfare. The better the situation in Afghanistan in the post-2014 era, the better the future is for Pakistan.
According to a recent report published by the World Bank, Afghanistan is the worst country to invest in in Asia and the seventh worst in the entire world. As indicated in the report, this is a result of security threats related to the increased number of deadly attacks during the summer, the decreasing amount of international aid being provided since the withdrawal of NATO forces, corruption issues and many other internal problems that the brand new Ashraf Ghani administration is facing. Among them, Pakistan could help Afghanistan in terms of security threats and declining international aid, if not more. As long as Afghanistan faces these problems, they will continue to have a fragile investment environment, which will have spillover effects on Pakistan as well.
The anti-government demonstrations, led by leader of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) Imran Khan and an Islamic scholar of Sufism and founder and leader of the Pakistan Awami Tehreek (PAT), Tahir-ul Qadri, that have been going on since August have damaged the profile of the Sharif government. These demonstrations led the Pakistani army to interfere in politics as a mediator between the demonstrators and the Sharif government. After nine years of military rule in Pakistan between 1999 and 2008, Asif Ali Zardari became president of the country. He was then replaced by Mamnoon Hussain in 2013 through a democratic election. Since then, the influence of the Pakistani military establishment has been on the decline. However, the reappearance of the Pakistani army in daily politics is not a good sign for the country's democratic process.
According to a recent report titled "Resetting Pakistan's Relations with Afghanistan" published by the International Crisis Group (ICG), even though Pakistan has underlined its backing for a "united Afghanistan" several times, during a Crisis Group interview a former Pakistani military official conceded that the "defense establishment" differentiates a "Pashtun Afghanistan" and an "Afghanistan of others” that includes other ethnic groups such as the Tajiks, Uzbeks and Hazaras.
This military perspective has many issues behind it, including the close relations between Afghanistan and India that are fundamentally motivated by enmity towards Pakistan, the release of high-profile Taliban commanders/leaders depending on Pakistan's interests, the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) of Pakistan's relationship with the Afghan Taliban, the United States' financial assistance to Pakistan arising from the ongoing war in Afghanistan and so forth. An approach to Afghanistan under the influence of this perspective cannot succeed. The ICG report also remarks that the Pakistani military's possible prevention of Afghan President Ashraf Ghani's intention to start negotiations with the Taliban and Hizb-e İslami could weaken the Pakistani prime minister's endeavors for a better relationship with Afghanistan.
Therefore, the Pakistani administration should take foreign policy in hand in order to implement its priorities. Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif continues to be committed to peace with Afghanistan; however, if his administration does not take any action, no changes can be realized. Reinforcing relations with neighboring countries, including Afghanistan, is a must for economic recovery in Pakistan. Acknowledging the fact that it is too hard to deal with the Pakistani army in terms of controlling the security-related issues and foreign policy for the Nawaz Sharif government and that it would be fanciful to think that this will change in a short span of time, the Sharif government should redirect bilateral relations with Afghanistan beyond the realm of security issues.
Enhancing economic ties between the two countries and providing legal opportunities for the millions of Afghan refugees to stay in Pakistan would be a good start to reviving the floundering relationship.
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