The situation in China's neighboring areas have entered a period of rapid change. The infiltration of Islamic extremism in Central Asia directly threatens the security of China's western region and has become one of the main security challenges facing China in 2014.
At a time when the entire country's public opinion is centered on the whirlpool of Japan, it is time to shift our focus to the western region of China as security in this part may be far more troublesome than that in its eastern part.
With US-led NATO forces starting to withdraw from Afghanistan, the balance of security in Central Asia is bound to change. In fact, there have already been signs that extreme forces such as Al Qaeda are likely to rally, the Taliban will stage a comeback, and the plantation and smuggling of narcotics will become rampant.
The Afghan security forces do not have the capabilities to control the situation. Although the US may still send troops to Afghanistan, they will likely be small-scale special forces which will mainly focus on combating terrorism than carrying out peacekeeping missions.
After the US withdrawal is complete, the activities of terrorists and religious extremists in Afghanistan will likely intensify. Meanwhile, tense relations among different tribes may even bring back past conflicts.
Without a stable Central Asia, Xinjiang can hardly be stable as well. The stability of Xinjiang is one of the most critical security issues in China as it affects the progress of the country's western development which plays a key role in China's development strategy.
Currently, it is difficult to estimate what impact Central Asia's extreme forces will bring to the stability of Xinjiang. But the establishment of security in Central Asia means China has to reconsider its involvement in the region.
Central Asia is an area where the interests of large powers such as China, Russia and the US have all gathered. It is also a region boasting various cultures. However, for a long time, a stable balance of power has been missing from the region and friction among multiple forces has made the prospects of this region very unpredictable.
Those Central Asian states that are trying to bring stability to the region have not yet found an effective regional economic mechanism such as ASEAN. Meanwhile, domestic political and economic problems restrict the pace at which foreign capital can flow into the region, thus constraining the process of its integration into the global economy.
China needs to pay more attention to stability in Central Asia. The region has been greatly influenced by the Islamic movement, and the emergence and development of the East Turkestan Islamic Movement has been affected by pan-Islamism and pan-Turkism in the area.
After the 9/11 attacks, US-led NATO forces entered Afghanistan, making this region directly connected with the Middle East policies of the US and the West. The evolution of the global Islamic movement has become a prominent international political phenomenon during the post-9/11 era, as such what happened in Central Asia is no exception.
China, as a big regional power, cannot detach itself from the reconstruction of Central Asian stability or simply play a supervising role. The true test for China's Central Asia strategy in the future will be how to play a leading role in the region.
Through cooperation made under the framework of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) China's endeavor to promote stability will reflect such strategic considerations. Cooperation is also a strategic objective of Russia and Central Asian countries. In terms of enhancing regional security, member countries of the SCO share common ground, which is the basis for mutual support.
At a time when Western countries were expressing doubts over security during the Sochi Olympic Games, Chinese President Xi Jinping chose to attend. This move shows China's support for Russia as well as conveying the strategic intention of enhancing regional security cooperation.
The withdrawal of NATO forces is both a challenge and an opportunity. It not only adds urgency for enhanced cooperation among SCO members, but also provides more room to maneuver for cooperation. Maintaining the stability and peace of Afghanistan can become a new focus in this regard.
Thursday, January 30, 2014
Shanghai Cooperation Organization must take lead in Afghan stability
The situation in China's neighboring areas have entered a period of rapid change. The infiltration of Islamic extremism in Central Asia directly threatens the security of China's western region and has become one of the main security challenges facing China in 2014.
At a time when the entire country's public opinion is centered on the whirlpool of Japan, it is time to shift our focus to the western region of China as security in this part may be far more troublesome than that in its eastern part.
With US-led NATO forces starting to withdraw from Afghanistan, the balance of security in Central Asia is bound to change. In fact, there have already been signs that extreme forces such as Al Qaeda are likely to rally, the Taliban will stage a comeback, and the plantation and smuggling of narcotics will become rampant.
The Afghan security forces do not have the capabilities to control the situation. Although the US may still send troops to Afghanistan, they will likely be small-scale special forces which will mainly focus on combating terrorism than carrying out peacekeeping missions.
After the US withdrawal is complete, the activities of terrorists and religious extremists in Afghanistan will likely intensify. Meanwhile, tense relations among different tribes may even bring back past conflicts.
Without a stable Central Asia, Xinjiang can hardly be stable as well. The stability of Xinjiang is one of the most critical security issues in China as it affects the progress of the country's western development which plays a key role in China's development strategy.
Currently, it is difficult to estimate what impact Central Asia's extreme forces will bring to the stability of Xinjiang. But the establishment of security in Central Asia means China has to reconsider its involvement in the region.
Central Asia is an area where the interests of large powers such as China, Russia and the US have all gathered. It is also a region boasting various cultures. However, for a long time, a stable balance of power has been missing from the region and friction among multiple forces has made the prospects of this region very unpredictable.
Those Central Asian states that are trying to bring stability to the region have not yet found an effective regional economic mechanism such as ASEAN. Meanwhile, domestic political and economic problems restrict the pace at which foreign capital can flow into the region, thus constraining the process of its integration into the global economy.
China needs to pay more attention to stability in Central Asia. The region has been greatly influenced by the Islamic movement, and the emergence and development of the East Turkestan Islamic Movement has been affected by pan-Islamism and pan-Turkism in the area.
After the 9/11 attacks, US-led NATO forces entered Afghanistan, making this region directly connected with the Middle East policies of the US and the West. The evolution of the global Islamic movement has become a prominent international political phenomenon during the post-9/11 era, as such what happened in Central Asia is no exception.
China, as a big regional power, cannot detach itself from the reconstruction of Central Asian stability or simply play a supervising role. The true test for China's Central Asia strategy in the future will be how to play a leading role in the region.
Through cooperation made under the framework of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) China's endeavor to promote stability will reflect such strategic considerations. Cooperation is also a strategic objective of Russia and Central Asian countries. In terms of enhancing regional security, member countries of the SCO share common ground, which is the basis for mutual support.
At a time when Western countries were expressing doubts over security during the Sochi Olympic Games, Chinese President Xi Jinping chose to attend. This move shows China's support for Russia as well as conveying the strategic intention of enhancing regional security cooperation.
The withdrawal of NATO forces is both a challenge and an opportunity. It not only adds urgency for enhanced cooperation among SCO members, but also provides more room to maneuver for cooperation. Maintaining the stability and peace of Afghanistan can become a new focus in this regard.
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