Soaring commodity prices and natural disasters in Russia and Pakistan have combined to put African nations and conflict-ridden countries such as Afghanistan most at risk from food shortages, according to a report released today.
Sharp price rises for wheat and other grains will hit the world's neediest countries hardest, mainly in sub-Saharan Africa, as they grapple with their own poor harvests and failing transport networks, according to a food security index by risk management consultancy Maplecroft.
It also says conflict is a key factor behind food insecurity and Afghanistan tops the index of threatened countries. The other nine nations categorised as "extreme risk" are all in Africa, led by Democratic Republic of the Congo, Burundi, Eritrea, Sudan and Ethiopia. African nations make up 36 of the 50 countries most at risk in the index.
The report highlights climate change as having a "profound effect on global food security", with a heatwave in Russia coinciding with devastating floods in Pakistan – ranked 30th and "high risk" in the index.
"Russian brakes on exports, plus a reduction in Canada's harvest by almost a quarter due to flooding in June, are provoking fluctuations in the commodity markets," said Fiona Place, environmental analyst at Maplecroft. "This will further affect the food security of the most vulnerable countries."
Using 12 criteria developed with the World Food Programme, including GDP per head and cereal production and imports, Maplecroft's index evaluated risks to the supply of basic food staples for 163 countries. Finland was least at risk, while the UK was ranked 146th.
The latest official inflation data for Britain this week suggested that recent disruptions in the wheat market have yet to feed through to consumers. Economists are warning households in Britain and around the world to prepare for more price rises in staples such as bread following Russia's ban on wheat exports after drought has cost the country much of its latest crop. Wheat prices have risen by about 70% since June and other crop prices have also climbed.
TEN EXTREME RISK COUNTRIES
1 Afghanistan
2 Democratic Republic of Congo
3 Burundi
4 Eritrea
5 Sudan
6 Ethiopia
7 Angola
8 Liberia
9 Chad
10 Zimbabwe
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