When leading Baloch nationalist leader Sardar Akhtar Mengal announced his political divorce with House of Khan earlier this week-- the Prime Minister-led ruling coalition-- he also conveyed his anguish to the country’s powerful military establishment.
It’s a double political strike, creating a political headache for Khan and strategic pain for the establishment.
Khan’s government is already walking a tightrope, struggling to deal with the dangerous spread of coronavirus while locusts wipe out crops amid an ailing economy.
The political crisis might further deepen following a landmark decision by the country’s Supreme Court on Friday, which has dismissed a presidential reference against SC judge Qazi Faez Isa and declared it null and void.
Khan’s close aide, President Arif Alvi had filed the reference accusing judge Isa of money laundering and non-declaration of offshore properties owned by his wife and children, and the court’s decision will add political pressure on Khan as opposition parties propagate it as his ‘defeat.’
Of course, the party is facing the heat of opposition parties, including Sharifs’ N League and Bhuttos’ Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) who are twisting the knife into Khan’s political performance.
And so, Balochistan National Party (BNP) President Mengal chose this very time to announce his dissociation from the ruling coalition in an effort to create the perfect political storm.
Khan’s own power hangs on to a thin majority accorded to him by coalition partners, so any withdrawal of support is a setback. Islamabad is already abuzz with the usual conspiracy theories about the impending fall of government- a popular game in political circles. But it’s a far fetched scenario.
The main opposition parties are buried under piles of corruption cases and have to deal with their own issues. PML-N and PPP can hedge their bets but orchestrating a successful move of vote of no confidence against Khan is highly unlikely.
Coalition partners MQM and PML-Q continue to stand by him, given the unprecedented understanding between the establishment and the current government, the elusive ‘same page’ of Pakistan’s politics.
The MQM, after going through recent splits, witnessed erosion in its vote bank and desperately needs the umbrella of power of both the government and establishment for its survival. PML-Q of the Chaudharys is perceived as a party which aligns with ascendant or ruling power since the rule of former military dictator General Musharraf.
It’s a double political strike, creating a political headache for Khan and strategic pain for the establishment.
Khan’s government is already walking a tightrope, struggling to deal with the dangerous spread of coronavirus while locusts wipe out crops amid an ailing economy.
The political crisis might further deepen following a landmark decision by the country’s Supreme Court on Friday, which has dismissed a presidential reference against SC judge Qazi Faez Isa and declared it null and void.
Khan’s close aide, President Arif Alvi had filed the reference accusing judge Isa of money laundering and non-declaration of offshore properties owned by his wife and children, and the court’s decision will add political pressure on Khan as opposition parties propagate it as his ‘defeat.’
Of course, the party is facing the heat of opposition parties, including Sharifs’ N League and Bhuttos’ Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) who are twisting the knife into Khan’s political performance.
And so, Balochistan National Party (BNP) President Mengal chose this very time to announce his dissociation from the ruling coalition in an effort to create the perfect political storm.
Khan’s own power hangs on to a thin majority accorded to him by coalition partners, so any withdrawal of support is a setback. Islamabad is already abuzz with the usual conspiracy theories about the impending fall of government- a popular game in political circles. But it’s a far fetched scenario.
The main opposition parties are buried under piles of corruption cases and have to deal with their own issues. PML-N and PPP can hedge their bets but orchestrating a successful move of vote of no confidence against Khan is highly unlikely.
Coalition partners MQM and PML-Q continue to stand by him, given the unprecedented understanding between the establishment and the current government, the elusive ‘same page’ of Pakistan’s politics.
The MQM, after going through recent splits, witnessed erosion in its vote bank and desperately needs the umbrella of power of both the government and establishment for its survival. PML-Q of the Chaudharys is perceived as a party which aligns with ascendant or ruling power since the rule of former military dictator General Musharraf.
Khan’s own power hangs on to a thin majority accorded to him by coalition partners, so any withdrawal of support is a setback. Islamabad is already abuzz with the usual conspiracy theories about the impending fall of government- a popular game in political circles. But it’s a far fetched scenario.Owais Tohid
Such political adventurism will incur too heavy a toll, but Mengal’s withdrawal of support will increase the bargaining position of existing coalition partners. Yet, any relief demanded by them will compromise the moral high ground Khan’s party has maintained on an even-handed intolerance of corruption.
The internal crises coupled with tension along the Line of Control (LoC) with India, and the threat of Pakistan’s rival forces on the western border of Afghanistan and Iran, doesn’t provide a favorable environment for any foreseeable political change.
Yet, Khan’s real political test has just begun.
Mengal, a powerful Baloch nationalist leader, has galvanized Khan’s political trial. His six-point accord with the government, he said, was violated and the demands for the political and economic rights of the people of Balochistan were not fulfilled.
“We have simply demanded that the missing persons be recovered and the National Action Plan against terrorism be implemented in letter and spirit,” Mengal said before the parliament in his speech while citing reasons to part ways with the government.
“The government is more worried about Kashmir than Balochistan. [The government] is constituting committees on Kashmir which is not with it, but is not worried about losing what it already has,” he said.
Mengal knows the issue of missing persons concerns security agencies and can be resolved by the establishment and not by the government.
He has attempted to consolidate his political position by raising demands which represent prevailing sentiments among nationalists, and for many, Mengal has now emerged as the prominent Baloch nationalist leader.
The nationalists maintain that Balochistan has been ignored, that its people have been deprived of their economic and political rights and carry a long list of demands. Those with opposing views hold that there is a thin line between raising genuine political and economic demands and fanning sentiments which could be exploited by insurgents.
Mengal might try to move for a political change in the Balochistan government with the help of Maulana Fazlur Rehman’s influential religious political party, JUI, but will depend on the support of reluctant Pashtun nationalists of ANP. Even if he doesn’t see prospects for such a change, he might try it for political traction.
Balochistan, which borders Afghanistan and Iran and banks Pakistan’s economic alliance with China via CPEC, carries immense geo-strategic importance. Its security is vital for the defense establishment.
In the wake of recent militant attacks in Balochistan province, Pakistan’s security forces are fencing its 959 km long border with Iran. And there is an increasing threat of Indian intelligence agency, RAW’s, involvement in Balochistan from across the border of Afghanistan especially when there are efforts underway for the implementation of the Afghan peace process.
Intelligence sources say Baloch insurgents have been provided shelter in bordering towns in Iran, adding that secret passages are used by insurgents, commonly known in the native language as Duz Rah, along the border, including the coastal belt.
For the establishment, any political instability in Balochistan will be worrisome. Mengal probably knows this but is testing the nerves of the establishment and of Khan. He wants to gain politically but it remains to be seen whether he has placed his bet at the right numbers of the explosive roulette of politics.
Mr. Mengal has also played a political gamble.
The internal crises coupled with tension along the Line of Control (LoC) with India, and the threat of Pakistan’s rival forces on the western border of Afghanistan and Iran, doesn’t provide a favorable environment for any foreseeable political change.
Yet, Khan’s real political test has just begun.
Mengal, a powerful Baloch nationalist leader, has galvanized Khan’s political trial. His six-point accord with the government, he said, was violated and the demands for the political and economic rights of the people of Balochistan were not fulfilled.
“We have simply demanded that the missing persons be recovered and the National Action Plan against terrorism be implemented in letter and spirit,” Mengal said before the parliament in his speech while citing reasons to part ways with the government.
“The government is more worried about Kashmir than Balochistan. [The government] is constituting committees on Kashmir which is not with it, but is not worried about losing what it already has,” he said.
Mengal knows the issue of missing persons concerns security agencies and can be resolved by the establishment and not by the government.
He has attempted to consolidate his political position by raising demands which represent prevailing sentiments among nationalists, and for many, Mengal has now emerged as the prominent Baloch nationalist leader.
The nationalists maintain that Balochistan has been ignored, that its people have been deprived of their economic and political rights and carry a long list of demands. Those with opposing views hold that there is a thin line between raising genuine political and economic demands and fanning sentiments which could be exploited by insurgents.
Mengal might try to move for a political change in the Balochistan government with the help of Maulana Fazlur Rehman’s influential religious political party, JUI, but will depend on the support of reluctant Pashtun nationalists of ANP. Even if he doesn’t see prospects for such a change, he might try it for political traction.
Balochistan, which borders Afghanistan and Iran and banks Pakistan’s economic alliance with China via CPEC, carries immense geo-strategic importance. Its security is vital for the defense establishment.
In the wake of recent militant attacks in Balochistan province, Pakistan’s security forces are fencing its 959 km long border with Iran. And there is an increasing threat of Indian intelligence agency, RAW’s, involvement in Balochistan from across the border of Afghanistan especially when there are efforts underway for the implementation of the Afghan peace process.
Intelligence sources say Baloch insurgents have been provided shelter in bordering towns in Iran, adding that secret passages are used by insurgents, commonly known in the native language as Duz Rah, along the border, including the coastal belt.
For the establishment, any political instability in Balochistan will be worrisome. Mengal probably knows this but is testing the nerves of the establishment and of Khan. He wants to gain politically but it remains to be seen whether he has placed his bet at the right numbers of the explosive roulette of politics.
Mr. Mengal has also played a political gamble.
