Sunday, February 12, 2023
خیبر پښتونخوا کې د عملیاتو پر مهال د انټرنېټ تړلو د خلکو ژوند ګران کړی
د خیبر پښتونخوا د درو جنوبي ضلعو اوسېدونکي وايي، په سيمو کې يې د موبايل ټېلېفون او انټرنېټ خدماتو تړل کېدو له کبله ورځنۍ چارې اغزمنې شوې دي.
چارواکي د انټرنېټ تړل کېدو له وجې د خلکو مشکلات مني خو وايي، دا کار د سيمې د امنيت د ټينګښت لپاره اړین دی.
هلته شنونکي د انټرنېټ بندول د بنيادي بشري حقونو خلاف مل بولي.
خو دا یوازې شمالي او جنوبي وزیرستانونه او لکي مروت نه دي بلکې په نورو قبایلي ضلعو کې هم وخت په وخت د عملیاتو پر مهال انټرنېټ تړل کېږي.
په وروستیو کې په لکي مروت کې د وسلوالو ضد د عملیاتو پر مهال هم موبایل ټېلېفون انټرنېټ تړل شوی وو.
د لکي مروت يو اوسېدونکي شاکر بېټني د فبرورۍ پر اتمه مشال راډيو ته وويل، په سيمه کې يې موبايل ټېلېفون او انټرنېټ تر شاوخوا دوو اوونیو بند وو چې د فبرورۍ پر اوومه شپې مهال بحال شو.
بېټنی چې په يوه ځايي اېف اېم راډيو کې وياند دی، د فبرورۍ پر اتمه یې له مشال راډیو سره په خبرو کې زياته کړه چې د سيمې خلک د انټرنېټ بحالېدو ته خوشاله دي، خو د پولیسو او امنیتي ځواکونو پر اقداماتو سربېره، د امنیت په اړه ډاډمن نه دي. "خلکو ته ډېر زيات تکليف وو، خو شکر چې انټرنېټ مو دوه هفتې پس بحال شو. پر خلکو سم اختر وو، يو بل ته يې مبارکۍ ورکولې. امنيتي ادارو زموږ په سيمه کې د عملياتو له وجې موبايل ټېلېفون او انټرنېټ تړلی وو. دې کار د خلکو پر ورځني ژوند اغېز کړی وو. د لکي مروت مالداره او تعليم يافته خلکو پېښور او اسلام اباد ته کډې کول پيل کړې دي. تر عملياتو مخکې او اوس هم، خلک تر ماښام وروسته له کورونو بهر نه شي وتلای. غلاوې زياتې شوې دي او خلک زښت په تنګ دي."
د پوځ د عامه اړیکو ادارې د فبرورۍ پر اتمه په یوه خبرپاڼه کې د لکي مروت په عملياتو کې د تحريک طالبان پاکستان د ۱۲ مشکوکو وسلوالو د وژلو ادعا وکړه.
د لکي مروت پولیسو ویاند شاهد حمید د فبرورۍ پر اتمه مشال راډیو ته وویل چې عملیات "پوځ او پولیسو په شریکه" کړي دي.
د سیمې اوسېدونکو مشال راډیو ته وویل چې د موبایل انټرنېټ تړلو یې ورځنۍ چارې اغېزمنې کړې وې.
دوی وايي، په سیمه کې د عملیاتو له کبله انټرنېټ د جنورۍ له وروستۍ اوونۍ راهیسې تړلی وو چې له کبله یې خلکو د موبایل ټېلېفون له لارې تنخاګانې پر وخت ترلاسه نه کړای شوې.
دوی داراز زیاته کړه چې د انټرنېټ نه شتون له کبله د سیمې یوشمېر زده کوونکي له انلاین امتحانونو پاتې شول.
خو د پولیسو ویاند شاهد حمید زیاتوي چې موبایل انټرنېټ د عملیاتو تر بشپړېدو وروسته بحال شوی دی.
بلخوا په جنوبي وزيرستان کې د پښتون ژغورنې غورځنګ يو مخکښ جمال ماليار هم د هغې ضلعې په اکثرو ځايونو کې د انټرنېټ د بندښت ستونزه يادوي او وايي چې پر بيا بيا احتجاجونو سربېره یې دا مسله حل نه شوه. "د ضلعې په اکثره سيمو کې مو انټرنېټ له سره شته نه. بيا چې کله د ناامنۍ کومه پېښه وشي نو دوی د [پاکستان تېلېفوني خدماتو ادارې یا] پي ټي سي اېل د سېګنل ترڅنګ د موبايل ټېلېفون او انټرنېټ شبکې هم وتړي. داسې وبوله چې موږ په توره شپه يا تور ځنګل کې ژوند کوو. موږ وخت په وخت احتجاجونه هم کړي دي. حکومتي چارواکي وعدې وکړي خو پوره کوي يې نه. موږ ته وايي چې تخنيکي مسله ده او ژر به حل شي، خو موږ پوهېږو چې امنيتي او حکومتي ادارې زموږ د ستونزو په حلولو کې مخلصه نه دي."
د شمالي وزيرستان يو خبريال رسول داوړ بيا وايي چې که له يوې خوا د سيمې خلک د ناامنۍ پېښو پرېشانه کړي نو له بلې خوا ورباندې د موبايل ټېلېفون او انټرنېټ خدماتو بندېدو یې ژوند ګران کړی دی. "د انټرنېټ بندښت د سيمې زده کوونکو او کاروباري خلکو ته مشکلات زېږوي. زما په څېر خبريالان هم له دې مسلې کړېږي. ځکه موږ نه شو کولای پر وخت رپورټونه جوړ او خپلو ادارو ته ولېږدوو. ځايي خلکو وخت په وخت احتجاجونه کړي، خو غږ یې څوک نه اوري."
په سيمه کې د موبايل ټېلېفون او انټرنېټ د بندښت موضوع مو د فبرورۍ پر اتمه د ميرلي له انتظامي مشر صادق علي مخې ته کېښوده. هغه وويل چې انتظاميه د انټرنېټ نشتوالي له وجې د ځايي خلکو له ستونزو خبره ده او هڅه کوي چې انټرنېټ ته د عامه لاسرسۍ بديلي لارې چارې برابر کړي. "انټرنېټ په داسې يوه سيمه کې په عارضي توګه تړل کېږي چې د استخباراتي معلوماتو پر اساس پکې پوليس او پوځ ګډ عمليات کوي. موږ قانون عملي کوونکو او نورو اړونده ادارو ته وايو چې د يوې سيمې تر امن کېدو وروسته هلته په فوري توګه انټرنېټ بحال کړي. موږ پوهېږو چې د سيمې سکولونه، کالجونه، هسپتالونه او کاروبارونه له انترنېټ پرته نه شي چلېدای. په ځينو سيمو کې خلکو د دې لپاره چې پر حکومت د انټرنېټ بحالولو لپاره فشار واچوي، خپلو ماشومانو ته له پوليو واکسينو ورکولو انکار کړی دی. په شمالي وزيرستان کې اوس هم فور جي انټرنېټ بند دی. خلک له خپل پي ټي سي ايل ټېلېفون سره د نينو بيمز په نوم يوه اله وصلوي او په هغه توګه انټرنېټ ته لاسرسی پيدا کوي. انتظاميه د خلکو د دې اييني حق ملاتړې ده چې هغوی بايد انټرنېټ ولري."
دا چې د وسلوالو پرضد د پوځي عملياتو په سيمه کې د موبايل ټېلېفون او انټرنېټ تړل ولې ضروري دي او دا هم چې دا اقدام د عملياتو له کاميابۍ سره څومره مرسته کوي؟ د دې پوښتنې په ځواب کې په اسلام اباد کې خبريال او د چارو شنونکی افتخار فردوس وايي، په يوه جنګي سيمه کې د موبايل ټېلېفون او انټرنېټ بندول د امنيتي ځواکونو له لوري د جګړې د يوه عمده تاکتیک په توګه کارول کېږي.
نوموړی په عين وخت کې مني چې په دې توګه عام ولس له دې دواړو خدماتو محرومول د بنيادي بشري حقونو خلاف يو عمل دی.
"نن سبا ترهګرې ډلې اکثره وخت د [انټرنېټ له لارې د چلېدونکو الو] او يا هم ټېلېفون په وسيله بمي چاودنې کوي. امنيتي ځواکونه پر خپلو ګاډو [د انټرنېټي څپو بندولو الې] لګوي خو چې کله په يوه سيمه کې د لوی کچې عمليات کوي نو هلته د فون سېګنل هم بندوي. د فون او انټرنېټ تړل کېدو له وجې خلکو ته ستونزې جوړېږي، ځکه نن سبا ژوند له دې دوو شيانو پرته نيمګړی دی. پر نړيوال کچ هم که وګورو نو پر خلکو د فون او انټرنېټ تړل د هغوی د بشري حقونو ضد يو عمل ګڼل کېږي. خو په ځينو سيمو کې د ترهګرۍ د زور ماتولو لپاره دا رقم اقدامات اړين بلل کېږي."
د ۲۰۲۲ز په اوړي کې په سوات کې د وسلوالو د بېرته فعالېدو رپورټونو تر خپرېدو وروسته د دې ضلعې انتظاميې هم په درو تحصيلونو، مټې، کبل او خوازه خېله کې د شاوخوا يوې مياشت لپاره انټرنېټ تړلی وو.
ه شمالي او جنوبي وزيرستانونو کې خلکو په تېرو وختونو کې د موبايل ټېلېفون او انټرنېټ بندښت پرضد یوشمېر ځلې احتجاجي مظاهرې کړې دي.
The Checkered History Of Pakistan-Bangladesh Relations – Analysis
After a violent parting of ways in 1971, Pakistan and Bangladesh have made attempts to normalize the relationship but success has eluded these efforts.
On the sidelines of Sri Lanka’s 74 th. Independence Day celebrations in Colombo in the first week of February, Pakistan’s State Minister of Foreign Affairs, Hina Rabbani Khar, sought a bilateral meeting with the Bangladesh Foreign Minister A.K.Abdul Momen. As per established practice, the request was granted. Media reports said that the two leaders discussed ways to improve ties. But no details were given.
A section of the media outside Sri Lanka saw signs of a thaw in the troubled relations between the two countries. But reliable sources in Bangladesh made it clear that there could be no thaw until Pakistan “officially and unconditionally” apologized for the atrocities committed by its army in the months preceding the birth of Bangladesh in 1971. Pakistan’s riposte to this assertion has been that its leaders had more than once (but not officially) regretted the happenings and that it is time the two countries buried the past and moved on.
Pakistan and Bangladesh, which parted ways in 1971 after two decades of disagreements on linguistic, economic and political issues, have subsequently made efforts to bury the hatchet and develop normal bilateral relations. But every attempt to do so has failed. This has been the case even when governments in Dhaka, like those of Gen. Ziaur Rahman, Gen.Hussain Mohammad Ershad and Khaleda Zia, were well disposed towards Pakistan.
It appears that domestic and geopolitical realties determined both the urge for a rapprochement and the decision to opt out of it. Now, with Bangladesh economically stronger and its ties with India much greater and multifarious, prospects of improved Bangladesh-Pakistan ties look dimmer than before.
However, neither side has closed the door to an understanding. For one thing, both Pakistanis and Bangladeshis share a 41-year history of fighting for an independent State of Pakistan for the Muslims of India. In fact, the Muslim League was launched in Dhaka in 1906 and Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, the Father of Bangladesh, was a full-time worker of the Muslim League and a close lieutenant of H.S. Suhrawardy, one of the architects of Pakistan. Further, Mujib would not have opted for secession if he was not denied the fruits of his party Awami League’s decisive victory in the 1970 elections that it fought on the issue of regional autonomy (not separation). Separation became inevitable only after the Pakistani army launched its brutal crackdown in March 1971 in which thousands of civilians and also intellectuals were targeted.
Despite the traumatic birth of his country, Mujib did not raise the issue of an official apology from Pakistan at the tripartite talks held between India, Pakistan and Bangladesh in April 1974 to end the conflict. According to Moonis Ahmar, author of Pakistan-Bangladesh relations – Prospects and Way Forward, Mujib even granted amnesty to those who collaborated with the Pakistan Army. Ahmar quotes from J.N.Dixit’s book, Liberation and Beyond: Indo-Bangladesh Relations to say that under Mujib’s watch, anti-Indian feelings had surged, though without India’s military intervention Bangladesh would not have come into being.
Dixit says: “Mujib had come to the conclusion by the first quarter of 1973 that the only way to neutralize negative propaganda against him and affirm Bangladesh’s independent status and capacity for freedom of option in foreign and defense related policies was to normalize and expand relations with Pakistan, China, and if possible, with the USA and simultaneously to reassert Bangladesh’s Islamic identity by becoming part of the OIC (Organization of Islamic Cooperation).”
Dixit also narrated the grand welcome which was accorded to Pakistan’s Prime Minister Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto when he visited Dhaka at the invitation of Sheikh Mujib in June 1974. Earlier, Mujib had attended the Second Islamic Summit held in Lahore, Pakistan, in February 1974. “It appeared that the two countries were on the verge of mending fences,” Ahmar says, adding that during Mujib’s rule from January 1972 to 1975, he made no demand for an official apology by Pakistan.
The successor regimes of Gen. Ziaur Rahman, Gen.H.M.Ershad and Khaleda Zia carried forward the policy of Islamization and mending ties with Pakistan. Ziaur Rahman journeyed to Pakistan and improved trade relations, and in 1977, Pakistan was Bangladesh’s second-largest trading partner after the US. President Ershad and Khaleda Zia kept up the good ties. Zia, Ershad and Khaleda looked at Pakistan as a bulwark against India, which was chafing after the elimination of its protégé, Sheikh Mujib, in 1975. The trio had serious issues with India over river waters sharing, definition of the border and the shelter given to anti-Indian terror groups in Bangladesh.
However, it did not take long for these regimes to become unpopular on grounds of non-performance. But to gain legitimacy they would play up the Islamic and anti-Indian (pro-Pakistan) card. But still, this did not lead to detente with Pakistan. Bangladesh wanted the return of its pre-liberation assets in Pakistan (more than US$ 4.5 billion) and the repatriation of 230,000 Biharis who sided with the Pakistani army during the liberation war. These issues were raised by Khaleda when the Pakistani military ruler Gen. Pervez Musharraf visited Dhaka in 2002.
Though out of power, the pro-liberation and anti-Pakistan constituency in Bangladesh was substantial. It got a shot in the arm with the return of Mujib’s doughty daughter, Sheikh Hasina, from exile in 1981. When she came to power in 1996, she demanded an unconditional and official apology from Pakistan for the atrocities of 1971. She has been keeping up the chant to date. Pakistan’s protest against the execution of Jamaat-e-Islami activists on charges of collaboration in war crimes in 1971 only widened the gap.
It became clear to all that while Bangladesh’s identity as an Islamic country cannot be questioned, it is difficult for any Bangladeshi political party to rely only on the Islamic card to have any special ties with Pakistan. Given the fact that all parties other than the Awami League exist only in the margins, the Awami League’s view of the liberation movement, the war and war crimes, is the dominant narrative.
Given the economic boom it has been experiencing and its wide-ranging social achievements under Hasina’s watch since 2009, Bangladesh can be choosy in selecting friends. Bangladesh’s per capita income crossed the US$ 2000 mark with a GDP of about US$ 355 billion. Poverty rates have plunged from nearly 43% in 1991 to 14% in 2021. Economists predict that it will “graduate” out of the Least Developed Country (LDC) status by 2026. And Bangladesh is being courted by foreign investors.
In contrast, Pakistan’s economy is in a shambles, its social indices are poor, and it is going about looking for donors. And today, Pakistan cannot match India as a development partner for Bangladesh. Bangladesh and Indian are inter-twined in multifarious ways. While it cannot be denied that India and Bangladesh have issues between them such as river waters-sharing, and there is a vocal anti-Indian lobby in Bangladesh, Bangladesh would rather have good relations with a growing India than latch on to poor Pakistan which has little to offer.
India was Bangladesh’s second-largest trade partner in 2022. Bilateral trade increased to US$18.2 billion (US$16.2 billion in exports and US$2 billion in imports) in 2022 as against US$10.8 billion in 2021. In contrast, Pakistan’s exports to Bangladesh was US$ 583.44 million in 2020 and its imports from Bangladesh was U$ 61.94 million in 2020.
Any chance of Pakistan officially apologizing for the events of 1971 disappeared when army chief Gen. Qamar Javed Bajwa told a gathering in November 2022, that the army could not be blamed for the events of 1971 and that criticism of it had been indecent. Given the dominant position of the army in Pakistan, its politicians dare not let it down.
https://www.eurasiareview.com/12022023-the-checkered-history-of-pakistan-bangladesh-relations-analysis/
#Pakistan - Unsafe for women
By Myra Imran
A rape in one of the main public parks in the capital means that women are safe nowhere.
T |
he recent rape incident in Fatima Jinnah Park has raised many questions regarding the safety of women in public places in the capital city.
Islamabad was ranked the safest city in Pakistan by World Crime Index in 2019 and the second safest city in South Asia in 2021 by Numbeo, the world’s largest database of user-contributed data about cities and countries.
Fatima Jinnah Park, also known as Capital Park or F-9 Park, covers an entire sector and spans an area of 304 hectares (750 acres). The park, which is at a central location and covered in dense foliage, receives heavy footfall and is often referred to as ‘the sleeping heart of Islamabad’. Amongst other structures, it houses a wildlife sanctuary and a vaccination centre. Residents routinely visit the park for exercise and recreational activities.
Concerns about safety in this park resurfaced when two armed men raped a woman at gunpoint early evening last Thursday. According to the FIR, the survivor and a colleague had gone to Fatima Jinnah Park to take a walk at 8pm when two armed men appeared. They ushered both of them to a secluded part of the park that was covered with trees. Ignoring the pleas of the survivor who begged the rapists to let her go, they took her away from her male colleague.
The survivor stated that one of the men slapped her and threatened to call more ‘friends’ if she raised her voice. After taking turns, the rapists returned the survivor’s belongings, threw her clothes some distance away, gave her a thousand rupee bill and told her to keep her mouth shut. Before disappearing behind the trees, they also told her not to visit the park at night.
The Gender Protection Unit of the Islamabad Police is investigating the incident. The police say they are examining the evidence to identify the rapists.
“The police and the district administration are improving the security arrangements at the Park,” a statement issued by the police in the wake of the incident said. The police also exhorted citizens visiting the park in the evening to stay in the well-lit parts of the park.
The incident caused widespread fear and led to outrage on the social media. Several human rights institutions and women rights forums strongly condemned it and demanded swift action against the perpetrators.
Many Islamabad residents, especially women, expressed grief and disappointment. Many reported earlier incidents of harassment at F-9 Park and other public spaces in the capital. Some also came forward with accounts of harassment they had faced from the park staff.
According to police records, 36 cases of criminal activity were reported in the F-9 Park during the past year. Out of those, six were rape cases reported by women. Incidents of looting and armed robbery have been commonplace.
Some people blamed the victim for visiting the park “late at night with a boy.”
The police advice to the visitors was indeed irrelevant as the survivor clearly mentioned in the FIR that she was taken to the forest area (not well-lit) at gunpoint.
The incident also highlighted the fact that F-9 Park has been an unsafe place for women as well as men.
According to police records, 36 cases of criminal activity were reported in the F-9 Park during the past year. Out of those six were rape cases reported by women. Incidents of looting and armed robbery have been commonplace.
Last summer, Qasim Awan, a university graduate who worked as a manager in a food delivery company, was murdered when he encountered some thieves during his jog in the F-9 Park.
After the recent incident, a protest demonstration was organised by Aurat March in front of Fatima Jinnah Park on February 6. Some of the protestors said that the fact that such an incident could occur in the capital was telling. Others chanted slogans and demanded that the rapists be arrested immediately.
The protesters also undertook a walked in the F-9 Park at night to ‘reclaim’ it and register their protest against the police advice. Some of them tied pieces of cloth and dopattas on the Park gate.
Some of the protestors said that the high crime rate in F-9 Park showed that the Islamabad Safe City Project was little more than a joke. They regretted that the culprits had still not been found despite the survivor cooperating with the police.
Talking to TNS, human rights activist Tahira Abdullah lambasted the police’s advice to women. “The authorities responded by asking women not to go on a walk in the F-9 Park after sunset,” she said. She called this advice “a horrible example of victim-blaming.”
She said it seemed that rather than admitting their failure to protect the residents of the Federal Capital, the authorities were more interested in policing women.
She said that less than three per cent of rape accused were ever arrested and less than one per cent were convicted.
She also demanded the implementation of the 2016 law on rape. She said that rape convicts should be handed life imprisonment sentences, without any possibility of release, parole or remission. However, she condemned the castration clause of a subsequent amendment in the law. She also said that it was not the severity but the certainty of punishment that would be an effective deterrent.
“Women are not safe in their homes or in public spaces. Yet, some people in this country find ways to blame the survivors,” said Farzana Bari, who represented Women Democratic Front and the Awami Workers Party.
A statement issued by WDF said that the state had failed to protect its women in the capital and other cities. The statement saluted the survivor for her courage in filing the FIR. “We will stand by her until justice is brought to the armed rapists,” it said.
https://www.thenews.com.pk/tns/detail/1039691-unsafe-for-women
Pakistan on the Brink: What the Collapse of Nuclear-Armed Regional Power Could Mean for the World
Murtaza Hussain
A series of disasters — including catastrophic flooding, political paralysis, exploding inflation, and a resurgent terror threat — risk sending the global player into full-blown crisis.THE LAST YEAR has brought Pakistan to the brink. A series of rolling disasters — including catastrophic flooding, political paralysis, exploding inflation, and a resurgent terror threat — now risk sending a key, if troubled, global player into full-blown crisis. If the worst comes to pass, as some experts warn, the catastrophe unfolding in Pakistan will have consequences far beyond its borders. “This is a country of 220 million people, with nuclear weapons and serious internal conflicts and divisions,” said Uzair Younus, the director of the Pakistan Initiative at the Atlantic Council’s South Asia Center. “The world didn’t like the outflows of refugees and weapons that came from countries like Syria and Libya. In comparison, Pakistan is magnitudes larger and more consequential.” “If the economy remains in a moribund state, and there are shortages of goods and energy leading to a political crisis on the streets of major cities, that would also allow the Pakistani Taliban and other terrorist groups to begin hitting at the government more directly,” said Younus, who is also vice president of the Asia Group, a strategic advisory firm. “We could see a significant weakening of the state and its capacity to impose order.” It is hard to overstate the difficulty of Pakistan’s current situation. An unfortunate string of recent events combined with chronic mismanagement has created a potentially mortal threat to Pakistan’s political system.“There are three crises intersecting at the moment in Pakistan: an economic crisis, a political crisis, and a security crisis that has grown since the fall of Kabul,” said Younus, who described the situation as the “worst threat to Pakistan’s national cohesion since 1971” — the year Bangladesh fought for and won its independence from Pakistan.Pakistan’s foreign reserves have reportedly dwindled to a mere $3.7 billion, barely enough for a few weeks of energy imports to keep its cities and businesses running, while its public debt has grown to a staggering $270 billion. Pakistan was particularly hard-hit by the war in Ukraine, which, along with other developing countries, forced it into a bidding war over scarce liquid natural gas that it has been unable to afford. The crushing weight of Pakistan’s debt has forced Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif to beg the International Monetary Fund to restart a financial bailout that was put on hold early last year. Negotiations are ongoing as the IMF is reportedly demanding painful concessions — a difficult sell ahead of consequential elections planned for later this year. Meanwhile, there are already signs that economic pressure will impact Pakistanis’ most basic needs. In late January, Pakistan suffered an unprecedented nationwide blackout as power went down across the entire country for over 24 hours. Though the cause of the outage is unclear, it could be a preclude for what lies ahead. “The electricity generation capacity of Pakistan is significantly dependent on the continued import of fuel,” said Yousuf Nazar, a Pakistani economic analyst and former banking executive. “You can imagine what would happen if we started to see power breakdowns and outages, or even shortages of fuel for transportation, at a time when the country is also dealing with 40 percent inflation.” THE COMPOUNDING CRISES, particularly serious for a debt-ridden economy with no solid political leadership and a kleptocratic elite, have been a long time coming. While much of Asia has gradually become rich and stable over the past few decades, Pakistan has remained poor, chaotic, and volatile. “During globalization and the liberalization of trade that happened across Asia during the 1990s, Pakistan was busy playing power games between the military and civilian elites,” Nazar said. “This present crisis was brewing long before the Ukraine war, which was the straw that finally broke the camel’s back.” Pakistan’s economy has long been characterized by an abysmally corrupt set of policies designed to provide subsidies to civilian elites and military officials while neglecting the vast majority of the population who work in industries like agriculture and textiles. But the infusion of foreign money that bankrolled the lavish lifestyles of Pakistani elites seems to be drying up. Saudi Arabia, a longtime donor to Pakistan, announced last month that future aid packages to foreign countries would be dependent on internal market reforms — a clear warning to recipients like Egypt and Pakistan whose economies are characterized by bloated public sectors and military control. The United Arab Emirates recently committed to providing some financial assistance to Pakistan, but the amount is barely enough to cover imports of vital goods for a few more weeks. Meanwhile, China, which holds 30 percent of Pakistan’s debt, has so far shown no willingness to renegotiate terms, while the United States has largely tuned out from the region after its bitter exit from Afghanistan. Pakistan’s relationship with India, its economically ascendant neighbor now led by a hawkish Hindu nationalist government, also shows no signs of improvement. “Many people talk about what sets India and Pakistan apart in terms of their economic trajectories, especially since, until the 1980s, Pakistan’s trajectory was more positive. There are so many factors one could mention in terms of years of bad policies, but one must also talk about the issue of elite capture,” said Michael Kugelman, deputy director of the Asia Program at the Wilson Center. “India has made efforts to implement policies that move closer to things like universal education and access to health care,” he continued, “whereas in Pakistan, those with the power simply have disregarded the economic needs of the people.”
THE ECONOMIC CRISIS is coupled with political instability that could weaken the hold of the state and make Pakistan progressively more difficult to govern with each passing year.
Following his removal from power last year during a conflict with his onetime supporters in the military that he claimed was a U.S.-led conspiracy, Imran Khan has been staging mass rallies aimed at reinstalling himself as prime minister. Amid a wave of targeted killings and arrests of his allies and supporters, Khan was himself wounded in an assassination attempt last November when a gunman shot him during an election rally. A polarizing figure in Pakistani politics, Khan boasts a large and committed base. Had he been killed, it is easy to imagine Pakistan devolving into widespread civil conflict.
As things stand now, all the major political parties, despite their fierce differences, are invested in keeping the country intact, and the military remains a powerful final arbiter over politics. But toxic political infighting and frequent changes in leadership have made responsible stewardship of the economy even more difficult — setting Pakistan down the path toward deeper problems.
“If you’re unable to meet the economic needs of the people and just respond with force, it will only catalyze greater anger.”
“Fragmentation of the state is not possible, but we could see a deep-seated economic crisis that pushes many people below the poverty line, puts simple commodities out of reach, increases food insecurity, and also foments anger among the public,” said Arif Rafiq, a nonresident fellow at the Middle East Institute and specialist on Pakistan. “That can have real political consequences, not just for political parties, but also for the army. If you’re unable to meet the economic needs of the people and just respond with force, it will only catalyze greater anger.”
In recent months, Pakistan has seen a resurgence of terrorism from radical Islamist groups, as well as ethnic militants in the resource-rich province of Balochistan. The Pakistani Taliban, which killed thousands of Pakistanis during the war on terror, announced its return with a horrifying suicide attack last month that killed over 100 congregants attending Friday prayers at a mosque. The attack is a warning sign that instability in neighboring Afghanistan, which suffered tens of thousands of deaths over the past two decades of U.S. occupation, may once again impact Pakistan.
The economic and political crises have also extended to the slow-going recovery of millions across the country after the historic flooding last year that put roughly one-third of Pakistan’s landmass under water and displaced millions of its poorest citizens.
Though the disaster can be blamed in part on climate change driven by wealthy countries, international aid has been slow and meager, leaving Pakistan mostly on its own to pick up the pieces.
Former Prime Minister Asif Ali Zardari, notorious for his outlandish personal corruption, once reportedly told U.S. diplomat Richard Holbrooke that Pakistan was “too big to fail” — likening the country to U.S. banks that received massive bailouts to prevent collapse in 2008. Although Pakistan is a nuclear power, as well as the fifth most populated country in the world, whether its leaders can pull themselves together and find a way out of the onslaught of crises — perhaps the worst in the country’s history — remains to be seen.
“There is tremendous uncertainty, as people don’t know whether Pakistan will simply just default on its foreign loans sometime this year,” Rafiq said. “There is heightened risk across the board, and every major indicator has taken a turn downward. It is hard to see a pathway to stability because the government’s legitimacy comes from its ability to handle the economy — and things are not going to get better in the foreseeable future.”
https://theintercept.com/2023/02/12/pakistan-economy-crisis-imf/