Friday, June 14, 2019
Are the Oman Tanker Attacks Another Gulf of Tonkin?By Eliot Higgins
By Eliot Higgins
Internet databases confirm much about the incident, but the Trump administration hasn’t provided convincing evidence of Iran’s culpability.There has been considerable cynicism worldwide about American claims that the attacks on two oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman on Thursday were conducted by Iran. Iran has denied the accusation, and on Twitter, the term “Gulf of Tonkin” trended alongside the “Gulf of Oman.”
That historical reference is telling. It was in citing the “Gulf of Tonkin incident” — the North Vietnamese were accused of attacking American destroyers in that gulf in 1964 — that President Lyndon B. Johnson persuaded the Congress to authorize greater American military involvement in Vietnam. Historians have concluded that the attack never happened and Johnson’s ploy is now seen as the quintessential false flag operation.
With tensions rising in the region since attacks on four tankers off the United Arab Emirates in May, understanding what happened and who is to blame is crucial. Could the Gulf of Oman attack be the 21st century version of the Gulf of Tonkin incident?
Thanks to the internet and the range of publicly available information, confirming or denying such an attack has become far easier since the 1960s. A distance of several thousand miles does not mean much today.Tools and information like satellite imagery that was once only available to intelligence agencies can now be found on everyday tools such as Google Maps. Social media allows far-flung people to share information.Online databases containing all kinds of information are now available to people anywhere. It is with these databases that we can start with our investigation into what happened in the Gulf of Oman.Initial reports named the attacked vessels as the Kokuka Courageous and Front Altair. But how can we be sure these names are accurate when we are thousands of miles away with no reporters nearby?
Vessel tracking websites that collect transponder data from thousands of ships from fishing boats to cruise liners across the world in real time allow you to search for vessels and find their current location. Both the Kokuka Courageous and Front Altair could be found on the tracking website MarineTraffic, which showed both vessels at a standstill in the Gulf of Oman. MarineTraffic published the paths of both vessels through the gulf on its Twitter account.
Earlier this morning, two #tankers, #FrontAltair & #Kokuka Courageous, were reportedly torpedoed off the coast of #Oman. Watch their final movements before the reported #incidents in this past track video and learn more here: https://bit.ly/2WEwKQx #marinetraffic
That’s because MarineTraffic users photograph vessels and share the pictures on the website. Anyone can see them and verify if the vessel you are looking at is the one it is claimed to be.Similarly, the Sentinel Hub website publishes imagery taken by its satellites. Soon after the incident in the Gulf of Oman, an image became available showing the Front Altair on fire.With the incident confirmed, the next question was, what happened to the vessels? The United States Central Command gave one answer, publishing a statement that detailed the activity around the two vessels observed by American naval forces in the area.The statement included images of the Kokuka Courageous (my colleagues and I checked them against reference images of the ship to confirm the vessel’s identity) that showed a hole on one side of the ship, along with an object on the side of the hull that was described in the statement as a “likely limpet mine.”
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We can compare the video to the photograph from US Centcom, which is already confirmed as being the Kokuka Courageous, and it shows the position of the alleged mine is at the same point as the object removed from the vessel. Along with the statement and image a video was published showing what was claimed to be an Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps Gashti class patrol boat removing the unexploded limpet mine from the hull of the Kokuka Courageous, the implication being it was Iran that placed the mine there and was recovering evidence of its involvement.Given the political import and the source of the statement, it is necessary to check the claims made. What can we actually see in the American evidence from the Gulf of Oman?Identical markings on the side of the Kokuka Courageous above the a
lleged limpet mine are visible in both the photographs of the vessel and in the video showing its apparent removal by the Gashti patrol boat.Photographs and video published by Iran’s Press TV network show the same type of patrol boats as part of a ceremony marking the delivery of such vessels to the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps. Yet what the videos and photographs published by the United States don’t show us is more important. While the object on the side of the Kokuka Courageous is described as a “likely limpet mine” the images presented aren’t clear enough to verify that. Nothing presented as evidence proves that the object was placed there by the Iranians. The video shows only that the Iranians chose to remove it for an as yet unknown reason.
Editorial: Debt inquiry — PM has shown a lack of understanding of the larger macroeconomic forces at play
Retrospective analyses of economic management and where things have gone wrong are a good idea, and perhaps national-level reflection on how things have been run thus far is necessary to prevent a repeat of previous mistakes. But what is of concern is that it looks like the prime minister has made up his mind at the outset, rather than seeking to arrive at the results at the end of the search.PRIME MINISTER Imran Khan has said he will set up an inquiry commission to look into the reasons why Pakistan’s total debt climbed from Rs6tr in 2008 to Rs30tr by 2019. He wants to know “where all this money went”.
In fact, far from being a search for the deeper dysfunctions that afflict our economy it seems that what Mr Khan has in mind is some sort of law-enforcement probe to see if somebody may have made off with the money.
Given the amounts involved — a Rs 24,000bn rise in total debt over a decade — it is hard to imagine that individual malfeasance alone can be the explanation.
This was an era of sharply rising government indebtedness across the world as countries struggled to emerge from the ravages of the 2008 financial crisis.
Second, when looked at in absolute terms, the amount seems alarming, but if we take it as a percentage of GDP, which is the proper proportion to maintain here, the alarm bells lose much of their sound. Gross public debt, which measures only the government’s borrowing and excludes the private sector, rose from 58.6pc of GDP in June 2009 to 74.4pc by March 2019. This is a large rise undoubtedly, though probably not the largest in the country’s history, and does not seem quite as alarmist as when stated as an absolute quantity.
Mr Khan has shown a lack of understanding of the play of larger macroeconomic forces.
Debts of this magnitude do not accrue because somebody, or even a lot of individuals, are putting the money somewhere. They accrue because the economy is suffering from large debilitating deficits that require urgent attention.
He would have an idea of how this works, because in a period of 10 months alone, since he came to power, the government has had to borrow almost 2pc worth of GDP just to deal with these deficit itself.
Both his current financial adviser and previous finance minister explain the massive jump in the country’s debt profile by saying their hand was forced by necessity.
If the commission ever comes around to seeking answers for the rise of the country’s debt in the last decade, chances are high they will arrive at the same conclusion. Perhaps the commission should be converted into a group led by economists, that is tasked to search for answers instead of hunting for scapegoats.
Farhatullah stresses need for career diplomat as Pak envoy to US
Secretary General Pakistan People's Party Parliamentarians (PPPP) Farhatullah Babar said the appointment of a non-career diplomat as Pakistan's ambassador to the United States at this critical time for the Pak-US relations was a thoughtless and imprudent decision that needed to be reviewed.
In a statement PPPP former Senator Farhatullah Babar said that Ali Jehangir Siddiqui might be an exceptionally brilliant banker and businessman but it would be fatal to assume that a successful businessman was also a successful diplomat.
"Ambassadorial appointments of this nature must be made only after due deliberations, bearing in mind also the impact on the morale of career diplomats denied legitimate expectations," he said.
He said the appointment would only further demoralise career diplomats, undermine foreign policy structures and was unwise. He said there might be no official confirmation of his appointment nor it was clear that Ali's name had been sent to Washington for formal approval.
However, he said the decision not to give extension to the incumbent ambassador and the silence indicated that there was truth in the reports.
"Our ambassador in Washington must be a nimble footed career diplomat possessing skills to perform difficult balancing acts in a carefully nuanced manner in a complex relationship beset with absence of trust. It is wrong to dismiss it as an 'administrative matter' as an official spokesperson has tried to do," he said.
Farhatullah Babar said that the manner of appointment was whimsical, non-transparent, thoughtless and typical of the PML-N's style; 'medieval governance driven by sublime nonsense at public expense'. He demanded of the government to come out clean and revisit the appointment after holding inter and intra institutional dialogue which should also be duly minuted and recorded.
Lawyers protest outside SC, burn copies of references against judges
Lawyers from bar councils across the country staged a protest outside the Supreme Court (SC) on Friday and burned copies of references filed by President Arif Alvi against apex court judge Justice Qazi Faez Isa and Sindh High Court judge Justice KK Agha over non-disclosure of foreign properties in their wealth statements.
Wearing black bands in solidarity with the accused judges, the Supreme Court Bar Council (SCBA) led the protest. The proceedings at the Supreme Judicial Council (SJC), which will be held in-camera, will commence at 2pm.
Interestingly, three SC judges who are members of SJC were part of the larger bench which had disqualified former prime minister Nawaz Sharif on account of non-disclosure of foreign assets in his nomination papers. All top superior court judges are the beneficiary of previous lawyers’ movement. Either they were restored or were appointed after the movement.
The SJC is the only forum for initiating action against judges for misconduct. It consists of five top judges. Currently, Chief Justice of Pakistan Asif Saeed Khosa is the chairman of the council. Other members are: Justice Gulzar Ahmad, Justice Sheikh Azmat Saeed, Sindh High Court Chief Justice Ahmed Ali M Shaikh and Peshawar High Court (PHC) Chief Justice Waqar Ahmad Seth. CJP Khosa is retiring in December, while Justice Sheikh Azmat Saeed will retire in August. Justice Gulzar is the next chief justice of Pakistan. Justice Seth was heading the PHC division bench, which set aside the conviction of 74 individuals by military courts last year on the grounds of ill-will and lack of evidence.
The CJP has already urged the lawyers to repose trust on judges in this matter.
The council has issued a notice to the attorney general of Pakistan (AGP) to decide the maintainability of presidential references against both judges. According to Rule 10(2) of SJC Procedure, Inquiry, 2005, “The council may require the AGP or any other counsel to appear and assist the council in relation to smooth and efficient conduct of its proceedings.”
#Pakistan - پاکستان کی عوام پوچھ رہی ہے کہ ہمارا معاشی قتل، روپے کی قدر میں کمی کیوں ہو رہی ہے؟
اگر میڈیا آزاد نہیں،اگر عدلیہ خود مختار نہیں، اگر قابل احترام ججز کوسازش کے تحت ہٹایا جا رہا ہے، اگر قومی اسمبلی میں اس ملک کے نمائندے اپنی عوام کی نمائندگی نہیں کر سکتے تو اس پاکستان میں اور مشرف کے پاکستان میں کیا فرق ہے؟
— PPP Punjab Social Media Official (@PPPPunjab_SM) June 14, 2019
(2/6) pic.twitter.com/YQHNMdPHcN
#Pakistan - #PPP - #Zardari advises PM to ‘step down, go home’
“I give the PM an advice to resign and go home,” he said, while interacting with journalists on the premises of the accountability court where he was brought by NAB officials for the hearing of the fake bank accounts case.Former president Asif Ali Zardari, who is in the custody of National Accountability Bureau (NAB), advised Prime Minister (PM) Imran Khan on Friday to step down from his office and go home.
To a question about the prime minister’s decision to appoint a high-powered commission to probe the massive debt piled up over the past decade, the PPP co-chairman asked the premier to task the body with a probe into the foreign loans taken over a period of the past two decades.
He said the passage of the federal budget for the fiscal year 2019-20 depended on which side of the aisle Balochistan National Party Mengal (BNP-M) chief Akhtar Mengal chooses to sit in Parliament.
“How did Imran Khan say that the country has stabilised. Have people’s salaries been increased,” he questioned, recalling that their salaries were increased during his term in power.
To another question about the prime minister saying that he won’t worry if he loses his life in his struggle to bring corrupt elements to justice, Zardari said the premier was not saying this for the first time.
“He [Imran] would say that he would kill himself than to go to the International Monetary Fund [for a bailout package],” the PPP co-chairman said.
https://nation.com.pk/14-Jun-2019/zardari-advises-pm-to-step-down-go-home
#Pakistan - One-sided accountability comes full circle
As NAB chairman Justice (rtd) Javed Iqbal allegedly told a respectable journalist references are lying in the NAB office against a number of PTI leaders and allies but these are not being pursued simply because if these are taken up the PTI government would fall in 10 minutes which, according to the NAB chief would be against national interest. Statements of the sort which brazenly display a clear tilt in the process of accountability rub away the veneer of even-handedness maintained by NAB.
One expects the PPP to move with a sense of responsibility keeping in view the broader national picture. Mr Zardari faces cases and has been defending himself in the courts so far as a free man. Henceforth he will have to do so from captivity. Like the Sharif brothers he too has preferred to go to jail instead of absconding from the country thus confounding the PTI leadership.
The people are suffering all over the country on account of a government which has proved to be thoroughly incompetent. PM Imran Khan claimed that people don’t pay taxes to dishonest rulers but lost face when his own government collected fewer taxes than its predecessors. He said dishonest rulers initiate tax amnesty schemes, and then got himself knocked down a peg by following in the footsteps of his predecessors. Finding that his tax amnesty scheme got poor response, he took to the media on Monday to exhort tax dodgers and those with hidden wealth to declare assets and pay taxes. According to the recent Economic Survey of Pakistan, during the 11 month tenure of the PTI the government has miserably failed to meet targets in nearly all sectors. The new budget would therefore bring more sufferings to the common man.
The opposition parties need to jointly expose the PTI government inside Parliament and avoid taking to the streets unless the government forces the opposition to do so by rejecting all sense of parliamentary propriety.
Naya Pakistan, same old censorship: Pakistan orders gag on satirical content
Pakistan's media regulatory body has issued a gag order asking media houses to restrict satirical content that make fun of politicians or law enforcement bodies.
A new order issued by Pakistan's media regulatory boy PEMRA has advised media channels to not air "satirical content" that demeans politicians or individuals associated with law enforcement agencies.
The "advice of airing satirical content" order issued by Pakistan Electronic Media Regulatory Authority (PEMRA) on June 12 has advised media houses to carefully select words and gestures while creating content or memes.
"Furthermore, an effective In-House Editorial Committee must also be constituted in order to ensure compliance of PEMRA laws which could sift unwarranted content," the order declared.
Ok. Is PEMRA also saying that TV channels shouldn't air even words such as 'Khalai Makhlooq', 'Farishtay' or 'Mehekma-e-zaraat'?
31 people are talking about this
Signed by Muhammad Tahir, General Manager, Operations-Broadcast Media, the order says it has been issued by "competent authority".
The latest gag order issued by Pakistani authorities has drawn the ire of Pakistani media persons on Twitter who are comparing it with the previous governments dominated by the Pakistani Army.
Pemra (read government) warns TV channels against broadcasting any satirical content, cartoons, memes, or comic depiction of leaders. And then they say one is exaggerating things by calling it fascism.
220 people are talking about this
Welcome to Naya Pakistan
WoW, the media are being advised,by PEMRA. This is called, controlled media
It was Asad Umar, said; “Media is free,” but he forgot to say that his govt. sends letter of Advice pic.twitter.com/ssP2rkmYaA
21 people are talking about this
PEMRA’s notice on satire is the most satirical thing I have come across in a while.
See Rehan Ulhaq's other Tweets
One such journalist, Hasan Zaidi said on Twitter, "Pemra (read government) warns TV channels against broadcasting any satirical content, cartoons, memes, or comic depiction of leaders. And then they say one is exaggerating things by calling it fascism."
Another user wrote, "PEMRA's notice on satire is the most satirical thing I have come across in a while."
While banning satirical content, PEMRA has put the blame on the public, saying they have received complaints against such programmes.
"Public sentiments are agonized by the trend of demeaning leadership of the country. TV viewers are expressing loath and disapproval on comic and satirical depiction of political leadership as well as law enforcers," reads the order.
However, a few have also come out in support of the gag order and said freedom of expression should come with responsibility.
Lol tum karo to “teach abusive trolls a lesson”?
PEMRA Karey to fascism?
208 people are talking about this
Freedom of expression with responsibility. PEMRA has issued a good advice. Satirical content should be aired but in a good taste, with wit and intelligence. We deserve a better & intelligent humor rather than third rated content.
How will media take it though? pic.twitter.com/0JsvdnI9BU
See Salman Javed's other Tweets
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