Thursday, July 9, 2015

Pakistan - Puncture wounds






By Dr Mohammad Taqi


The net result of Mr Imran Khan’s infantry advance with the media providing him a massive artillery cover has been a hyper-nationalist, demagogic chokehold on the national narrative.
“He will lie, sir, with such volubility that you would think truth were a fool” — Shakespeare’s All’s Well That Ends Well.

Perhaps even the most incorrigible of fibbers would have shied away from the camera’s glare after the complete edifice of his case against a fairly popular government, which he had built — in and with massive help from that very camera glare — in over a year, came crumbling down due to his utter failure to prove beyond reasonable doubt even a single aspersion he had cast. But not Mr Imran Khan. Instead of showing at least a modicum of remorse if not an outright apology, the chief of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI) got right back on the electronic media and tried to up the ante by claiming that former caretaker chief minister of Punjab (CM) Najam Sethi had repaired “71, not 35 punctures” (i.e. rigged elections in as many constituencies) in the May 2013 elections, which Mr Khan had originally alleged but failed abysmally to substantiate. Mr Khan similarly failed to corroborate in front of the judicial commission his litany of allegations against the former Chief Justice (CJ) of Pakistan, Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry, the returning officers, the winning party, the PML-N, and the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) but had the nerve to restrain and chastise one of his own lieutenants, Dr Arif Alvi, when he seemed to regret the untruths that the PTI and its chief had been peddling.

Mr Imran Khan’s agitation and dharna (sit-in) against the May 2013 election results was not a one-off occurrence. He has virtually held the national discourse hostage to his pathological misrepresentations on issues that are beyond politics and pose an existential threat to our loved ones. His trajectory has mirrored the views of at least certain elements within the security establishment and his antics have served them well in attempts to destabilise the civilian dispensations elected in 2008 and 2013. Mr Khan started off as the establishment’s 12th man and has graduated over the past several years to their ‘B team’ in setting the tone and tenor of the national narrative in which he is helped massively by the electronic media and Urdu press. For example, when it suited the past military brass to preserve the jihadists who had a sanctuary in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), particularly North Waziristan, Mr Imran Khan was their cheerleader in singing paeans of the ‘austere and upright’ Taliban fighting the ‘evil’ US. Mr Khan’s services came extremely handy not only to paralyse the Pakistani polity and keep it from overtly asking the military to act decisively against the jihadists but also to try to keep US drones from taking out what Pakistan considered were the ‘good’ Taliban.

From leading marches against the highly effective drone strikes to demanding offices for the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Mr Imran Khan — with full assistance from a rowdy and reactionary media — helped build the milieu permitting the then military leadership to drag its feet in neutralising the jihadists. The military operation has been underway in North Waziristan and sporadic US drone strikes are going on too but not a peep has been heard from Mr Imran Khan since he was apparently ordered to stand down in the wake of the December 2014 attack on the Army Public School (APS) in Peshawar.

The agenda that Mr Imran Khan helped set has included jolting the civilian governments of the PML-N and the PPP before it. Recall that in his October 2011 speech in Lahore, Mr Khan was the first one to frame the former Pakistani ambassador, Professor Husain Haqqani, in the so-called Memogate controversy. While the dubious character Mansoor Ijaz had not named anyone at that time, Mr Imran Khan’s allegation — without proof, as is customary with his accusations — set in motion a series of events that diverted attention from the massive embarrassment that Osama bin Laden’s discovery in the vicinity of the country’s premier military academy that year had become for the establishment. The Supreme Court (SC) of Pakistan later observed that the findings of the judicial commission formed to probe Memogate could not incriminate anyone and the matter simply fizzled out. The fabricated Memogate, however, enabled the then security establishment to rattle the PPP government just like the 2014 dharna protests have done to the incumbent PML-N dispensation. The PML-N leadership has virtually abdicated the national security and foreign policies to the military establishment since it was chastised through the dharna.

Mr Imran Khan may not be the sharpest tool in the shed but is certainly a useful one for denigrating politics, ridiculing and castigating the politicians and thus depoliticising the masses while pretending to draw them into the political process. The tirades by the PTI chief against the MQM in a key by-election this past April have helped prepare the ground for the ongoing witch hunt against the MQM. The media, on its part, has been propping up shady characters from Zaid Zaman Hamid to Dr Tanveer Zamani in an effort to undermine traditional political forces. Not only did his accomplices in the media let Mr Imran Khan devour prime time for the last one year with non-issues and outright lies but also carefully steered clear of highlighting issues like blood-soaked Balochistan, the uprooted and displaced Pashtuns of FATA and sectarian monsters on the loose across the country. Piggybacked on a raucous, jingoistic media, Mr Khan — who wears his piety on his sleeve — has consistently helped tip the civil-military balance in favour of the latter, turning the political dial to an extreme and obscurantist right.

The net result of Mr Imran Khan’s infantry advance with the media providing him a massive artillery cover has been a hyper-nationalist, demagogic chokehold on the national narrative, leaving no room for dissent and creating an artificial desire for a ‘messiah’ or knight in shining armour at the expense of the political process and the very institution of parliament. It is not just Najam Sethi and other victims of his vitriol that Mr Khan owes an apology to but also the parliament of Pakistan whose gates his hordes tried to crash along with those of the charlatan cleric Dr Tahirul Qadri. The truth is not a fool but lying with such volubility sets the democratic discourse back by decades. Usually the truth does prevail but not necessarily always or fast enough. Indoctrination does work and leaves a stunted political growth in its wake. Mr Imran Khan’s ‘35 punctures’ fabrication has been resoundingly deflated but the repeated puncture wounds he and his cohorts in the media and the establishment have inflicted on Pakistan’s body politic will take time and a serious political effort to heal.

Wednesday, July 8, 2015

Pakistan - #Shame #PTI - Justice For DJ Butt

It is unfortunate to see DJ Butt and PTI at loggerheads, especially when he has played such an instrumental role at the PTI Dharna at D-Chowk. DJ butt believes he played a vital role in creating a huge fan base for the PTI because of the unanimous love for his music at these rallies. This may well be true. It would have been no fun without him. His journey from humble beginnings to achieving new heights of success can be entirely owed to the PTI. The PTI in turn owes him for the welcoming ambiance he created for their dharnas in the sweltering summer heat. We all witnessed the dharna’s almost carnival like quality and one year later we continue to be entertained.

The PTI continues to taint itself with mini-scandals. Their refusal to fulfill their payment dues for such an important member of their party has raised many eyebrows. Despite contacting the PTI to pay him his remaining 80 million rupees, he had been paid 60 million during the dharna. The amount of money already paid is staggering, and what is owed is even more so. What made the PTI agree to this in the first place? While all agreements must be honoured, especially by men with reputations to protect, we have a culture of agreeing to one thing and then paying for another. It comes down to bad politics and bad business. The PTI does not need bad press from someone who they themselves have admitted has been instrumental in their dharna success. The dharnas may well have been a spectacle, but the PTI has to stop being one if it wants to be taken seriously.

Tuesday, July 7, 2015

Pakistan's Polio - Sixth case reported in Peshawar

The number of polio cases in the country reached 27 with a poliovirus case confirmed in Peshawar on Monday. According to officials at the National Institute of Health (NIH) in Islamabad, the case was confirmed from Mera Kachori, on the outskirts of the city.
Eighteen-month-old Abu Bakar was diagnosed with polio –the onset of paralysis recorded on June 9. NIH officials said the sample had been collected and sent to the federal capital which later confirmed the diagnosis.
This is the sixth case reported from Peshawar; the total number of cases in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa has reached 11.

English translation of sacred Islamic names and words forbidden by Pakistani government

People have been banned by the Pakistani government from translating Islamic Arabic names and words into English. 

According to reports, on June 4 Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif approved a summary prohibiting English translation of Islamic terms like Allah, Masjid, Sala’at and Rasool, into English as God, Mosque, Prayer and Prophet.

The decision from the prime minister comes in the Islamic holy month of Ramadan. And although the the decision has been welcomed by Islamic leaders, CLAAS-UK director Nasir Saeed has raised his apprehensions and said that it is difficult to predict what kind of impact it will have on Pakistani society. 


He added: "Keeping in view the present situation of the country where extremism, fundamentalism and hatred against Christians and other religious minorities is on the rise, therefore there is a possibility that this policy could have a negative impact, especially on the lives of non-Muslims who are already suffering because of the government's discriminatory policies against them. 

"There is also the chance that people will misuse this provision if they consider any translation of any word offensive or insulting to any Islamic word.

"Is it a coincidence that this announcement was made just one day before the anniversary of General Zia's 1977 coup which saw the elected prime minster thrown out, and then in an attempt to Islamise the country and its laws, push the country into further darkness. 

"It is not surprising the policy has come from Mian Nawaz Sharif, as he is the prodigy of Zia."


Pakistan's Shia Genocide - More 3 Shia Muslims shot martyred in Quetta

At least three Shia Muslims were shot martyred while two others were injured when takfiri terrorsits of Sipah-e-Sahaba aka Ahl-e-Sunnat-Wal-Jamaat (ASWJ) opened fire at them early Monday morning in Quetta, The Shia Post reports.
The martyrs and injured belonged to the Shia Hazara community.
The miscreants riding a motorcycle targeted the victims on Joint Road near passport office of the provincial capital. Meanwhile the injured were shifted to Civil Hospital, Quetta for medical treatment.
On July 1, at least three Shia Muslims Nadir Hussain s/o Gulzar Hussain, Asad Ali s/o Zulfiqar Ali, Ali Waris s/o Liaquat Ali were also shot martyred on Quetta’s Sirki Road.
On June 7, at least five people belonging to the said community were gunned down on Quetta’s Circular Road area near Meezan Chowk.

http://en.shiapost.com/2015/07/06/more-3-shia-muslims-shot-martyre-in-quetta/

Pakistan - July 5, 1977 - Volatile lessons



PPP observed the anniversary of the July 5, 1977 military coup that overthrew Zulfikar Ali Bhutto's government as a black day. PPP Chairman Bilawal Bhutto made it crystal clear that Pakistan cannot afford a dictorial, extremist mindset anymore. He pointed out that Zia’s gift to the nation was terrorism and religious fanaticism. History is witness to the terror campaigns carried out during the dictator’s time. His convoluted version of Islam introduced and made compulsory in school, university and college education curricula has resulted in the mushrooming of the false consciousness permeating society today. And instead of moving towards a progressive democracy, Pakistan appeared a backward state professing a psychotic frame of mind. At the same time, Bilawal has applauded the efforts of today’s army adamantly fighting that very monster of terrorism and eradicating the menace.

At a Lahore commemorative function, PPP’s Punjab President Manzoor Wattoo stressed the need for restoration of student unions. The decades old ban has produced on the one hand, depriving students of the nursery of democratic politics that the unions were, and on the other, opened the door wide for party-affiliated student organisations to use muscle power and violence to impose their will on the student community. By now, decades on, this trend is firmly entrenched in educational institutions. Elected student unions would encourage constructive peaceful debate, replacing the language of weapons with the weapon of language. The restoration of elected students bodies would not only be in line with today's democratic ethos, it could be the best tool to turn the page on violent student politics and restore the progressive role of youth in our society. No one can be under any illusion that this will be an easy task. The Augean stables of violent party-affiliated student groups will need prolonged cleansing. If the law is applied fairly and without discrimination to criminal violence and intimidation that rules the roost on campuses today, that could open up the path to a restoration of peaceful democratic student unions replacing the present virtual battlefields our campuses have been reduced to because of vested interests, political expediency, and sinister agendas of control through force. Sttudents should be allowed to exercise their right of voting peacefully during colleges/universities student union elections as the first step in educating them in the politics of democracy.

Pakistan - Educational Aid




As Norway gears up to host the Oslo Summit on Education for Development, two important Pakistani personalities are set to make an appearance; the Prime Minister, Nawaz Sharif, and the Nobel Peace Prize winner and youth activist, Malala Yousufzai. At the summit, Malala is expected to urge world leaders to live up to their international commitments towards education; guaranteeing twelve years of universal fee-free primary and secondary education. The effort requires an estimated sum of $340 billion per year; and Malala is expected to call on world leaders to make up for the shortfall, which stands at $39 billion — equivalent to just eight days of global military spending. While the Prime Minister will attend the summit and may even contribute to the dialogue, implementing the measures required by it is a separate matter. Military spending has bloomed while the education policy remains crippled by slivers of the budget that are allocated to it.

As the Prime Minister is about to leave, reports on the operation and efficacy of another highly touted educational enterprise – the so called Kerry-Luger-Bresnen agreement – have also emerged. Since 2009, despite the provision of billions of dollars worth of aid to government departments, NGOs and schools, education has seen mixed growth. Local and foreign scholarship plans bloom yet establishing quality schools still remains a challenge; showing that pure money – even $7.5 billion – is not enough on its own. The usual suspects claim the disruption; bureaucratic red tape, petty embezzlement, administrative lethargy and institutional clash have caused immeasurable delay. Despite the bill being approved in 2009, the first school under it was not built till 2014, yet the Metro projects steam forward a lightning speed. The difference in performance is not down to funds or ability; it is because education is a lost narrative. Apart from token claims of an ‘educational emergency’ the government has done nothing meaningful to gear the government machinery towards this project; it has built no narrative and has created no pressure on the relevant authorities.

This fact is even more embarrassing that Malala, a globally renowned education activist is a Pakistani. Apart from a customary congratulation at her winning the Nobel, Nawaz Sharif has not contacted her. Here lies the golden opportunity to finally build that narrative, to put the money we have to good use. Nawaz must give Malala’s ideas space to function, and in turn fuel education reform.

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Monday, July 6, 2015

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#Turkey - Who used this ISIL terrorist to bomb the HDP rally?

The veil of mystery is being lifted from Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) terrorist Orhan Gönder, who planted a bomb at a Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) rally in Diyarbakır before the June 7 election, causing four deaths. 

Facts that came out from the persistent follow-up of our colleague İdris Emen have raised thoughts that a very complicated network of relations may be present beyond this act.  




First let us congratulate Emen for this successful journalism. Then let us take a look at stories published in daily Hürriyet:  

The person who recruited Gönder for ISIL fought in Syria and went back to his hometown, Adıyaman. The police did not monitor this person, though they watched this person influence young people, despite parental warnings. 

Right before Gönder joined ISIL and disappeared, his family went to the police and told them their concerns. The police again watched the situation, interrogated the young person and released him. 

When Gönder disappeared, his family even reached Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğluand informed authorities that they suspected their son had joined ISIL, but the police and the National Intelligence Organization (MİT) were not able to track him. 

While Gönder was wanted by state security forces, he came back to his country and went to Diyarbakır. He obtained a bomb from some people over there and he caused the death of four people with his terror attack. 

We learned from Emen’s story at daily Hürriyet that, during his time in Diyarbakır, he was taken from his hotel by the police; he was notified that he was a draft evader and he was released. Whereas experts state that Gönder’s name should have been included in the list of “missing persons associated with terror” but according to a statement by the Diyarbakır police dated June 26, there was no information about him “preparing for an illegal act.”

How can this be true? The information that he had joined ISIL was given to theAdıyaman police, even the prime minister was informed, but did the Adıyaman police keep this information to itself? Why did the police intelligence not share this information with other departments? 

There could be a negligence of duty in this case, but there is more than one negligent action in this incident. Starting from Gönder’s recruitment to ISIL to his family informing the police of this, there is a series of negligence. 

Conspiracy theories may be misleading but when so much negligence pools on one person, then there should be a meaning to it. 

There is a profile that is “extremely suitable to be used” and this negligence series may be pointing to the “being used” part.

The whole problem is indeed finding who used him. What we need to look for here is who was expecting to benefit from this attack and who protected him until he planted bombs in Diyarbakır. 

I have a guess but I do not have any information to prove this, so I cannot write my guess.

Who do you think protected and used him? 

If the region went into turmoil after the bombings in Diyarbakır, if there were more deaths, what kind of an effect would this have had on election results? 

Would it have been more difficult or easier for the HDP to cross the threshold? 

There are a series of questions here and this time this incident should not be left as another one the “unsolved cases.”

Putin, Hollande discuss results of Greek referendum

Presidents Vladimir Putin of Russia and Francois Hollande of France had a telephone conversation, in the course of which they discussed the results of Sunday's referendum in Greece, the Kremlin press service said.
"The two Presidents discussed the results of the referendum in Greece, including from the point of view of further development of the situation in the eurozone," the press service said in a report.
A total of 61.31% Greek citizens who came to the polls on Sunday voted against the terms of the agreement with creditors on settling the country's sovereign debt.
The government put up only one question for the referendum, namely, whether it was to accept or to reject the draft agreement authored by the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund and made public at a session of the Eurogroup of finance ministers on June 25.
The document consisted of two parts, which specified the reforms necessary for completion of the current programme and contained preliminary analysis of stability of the debt.
Judging from the outcome of Sunday's voting, the rank-and-file Greeks are discontent with the position of international creditors. Along with it, the majority of Greeks say in opinion polls and interviews they remain in favor of Greece's continued inclusion in the eurozone.
The Greeks have spoken out against the harsh austerity measures, which presuppose a new downsizing of pensions and and salaries and they would like to see the signing of an agreement on the basis of compromise proposals made by Greece where focus shifts to the opportunities of economic growth and debt restructuring.
The EU and the IMF have allocated almost 250 billion euro since 2010 when the crisis of sovereign debt began in Greece. The Athens government is to return the money gradually.
Although a part of the country's debt was written off in 2012, its current debt exceeds 315 billion euro at present, standing at 175% of its GDP thrice as much as the level admissible of a country within the eurozone, which is expected to be below 60% of the GDP.

Dalai Lama's 80th birthday celebrations politicized: expert

 A Chinese expert has lambasted the Dalai Lama for hyping up his 80thbirthday celebrations and politicizing the issue in the United States.
In an op-ed published on Monday by the Global Times, Lian Xiangmin from the ChinaTibetology Research Center said that Monday's celebration is the third time the DalaiLama has celebrated his 80th birthday. He marked his eightieth year with a TibetanBuddhism service in 2014 and on June 21 this year in line with the Tibetan calendar .
Such celebrations are another farce by the Dalai group to save their declining influence,said Lian, adding both China's national power and Tibet's rapid development haveeclipsed the Dalai group's so-called "middle way" proposal, which advocates a "GreaterTibet" with "a high degree of autonomy" within China.
Lian accused the group of premeditating the event, citing the preparation work one yearago, press conferences and some overseas websites' whipping up unrest in China.
That the Dalai chose to celebrate his 80th birthday in California shows that he is seekingthe support of the United States, whose Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) has funded theDalai group, it added.
As always, the celebration marked another chapter in the Dalai group's "politicizingeverything," said the op-ed.
Though the Dalai Lama announced his retirement from politics in 2011 and vowed toseparate religion from politics, he seems busier than ever. At 80, he still visits more than adozen countries a year, courting senators and politicians, doing talkshows and deliveringspeeches.
"He dresses like a monk, but he is a politician," said the op-ed.
The expert then cited Gyalo Thondup, brother of the Dalai Lama, who wrote a bookcriticizing the American government's handling of the Tibet issue and said the Tibet issuecannot be resolved without the participation of the Chinese government.
"The government has urged [the Dalai Lama] to put aside his illusions in his remainingyears, face up to reality, adapt his position, choose the objective and rational path, and dosomething of benefit to overseas Tibetan compatriots in exile," it said.
"Perhaps he should listen to his brother, change his position to what he held before 1959,when he fled China, and stand with the Tibetan people rather than with the separatists," itsaid.

Saudi Arabia cannot conquer Yemen: Analyst

Press TV has conducted an interview with Navid Nasr, political analyst in Zagreb, to discuss Saudis ongoing military aggression against Yemen.

Following is a rough transcription of the interview.

Press TV: If we want to take a look at the purpose of this, it is a very costly campaign for Saudi Arabia but are they getting back the investment they are making?
Nasr: I do not see what possible investment they are getting back for their trouble here, unless they actually want a completely destroyed and destabilized Yemen bordering them which very well could be the case. I do not know.
Honestly it is difficult sometimes to get into minds of people like this and see exactly what their intentions are, exactly what their goals are, what the endgame is that they envision. One thing we know for sure is that in their mind, in their delusional fantasies, this is all about Iran. This is all about curtailing Iran’s influence, the Houthis are Iranian proxies, and they are fighting Iran by destroying Yemen.
It is absolutely ludicrous but this is the narrative that at least they are putting out there and probably even something that they genuinely believe in. So who knows? Who knows how this is going to end? How they can claim victory and retreat because that is what is going to happen. They are not going to win here. They are not going to militarily conquer Yemen. They could not militarily conquer a sand dune in Najd much less the entire country of Yemen. They can bomb as many targets as they want but that is it.
Press TV: What is very interesting is that every now and then you would hear about these US drone attacks that would take place in Yemen. We do not hear about them anymore, in the past three months not one has been reported. What do you think that is?
Nasr: We can speculate and that is what I will do right now, I speculate, I say that AQAP (Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula) acts as another militant proxy both for the Saudis and for the US in terms of whatever foreign policy goes they seek to establish. Right now AQAP in terms of fighting prowess it is not even close. AQAP has actual fighters and the Saudis have… whatever, their army is a joke. So AQAP can actually fight, maybe go toe to toe with the Houthis and the Saudi army cannot, so they are not going to do anything that would weaken the AQAP.

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Anti-terror financing meet: Russia's stance on Pakistan surprises India

There is unease in Delhi over recent stand that old ally Russia took at a recent anti-terror financing meet organised at Brisbane by opposing move by India to demand censure against Pakistan for its inaction against JuD & LeT.

While New Zealand and Australia also opposed the move, India is surprised with Russia's position which in the past has been very supportive of India's stand on Kashmir to the extent of vetoing resolutions in UN Security Council.

Official sources in .. 

Rivals Pakistan, India to start process of joining China security bloc


By Ben Blanchard
Nuclear-armed rivals Pakistan and India will start the process of joining a security bloc led by China and Russia at a summit in Russia later this week, a senior Chinese diplomat said on Monday, the first time the grouping has expanded since it was set up in 2001.
The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) groups China, Russia and the former Soviet republics of Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, while India, Pakistan, Iran, Afghanistan and Mongolia are observers.
"As the influence of the SCO's development has expanded, more and more countries in the region have brought up joining the SCO," Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Cheng Guoping told a news briefing."India and Pakistan's admission to the SCO will play an important role in the SCO's development. It will play a constructive role in pushing for the improvement of their bilateral relations."
India and Pakistan have fought three wars since 1947, two of them over the divided Muslim-majority region of Kashmir which they both claim in full but rule in part. Pakistan also believes India is supporting separatists in resource-rich Baluchistan province, as well as militants fighting the state.
India applied to join the regional security grouping last year and SCO foreign ministers gave a positive recommendation when they met in June. "We await further developments," said Sujata Mehta, a senior foreign ministry official.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be in Moscow for a summit of the BRICS group of emerging markets and both he and his Pakistani counterpart, Nawaz Sharif, will attend a special SCO "outreach" session as part of the gathering.
Pakistan's application is being considered, said foreign ministry spokesman Qazi Khalilullah. "We hope they will support us for full membership," he added.
The grouping was originally formed to fight threats posed by radical Islam and drug trafficking from neighbouring Afghanistan.
Cheng said the summit, to be attended by Chinese President Xi Jinping, would also discuss security in Afghanistan.
Beijing says separatist groups in the far western region of Xinjiang, home to the Muslim Uighur minority, seek to form their own state, called East Turkestan, and have links with militants in Central Asia, as well as Pakistan and Afghanistan.
China says Uighur militants, operating as the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM), have also been working with Islamic State.

"It can be said that ETIM certainly has links with the Islamic State, and has participated in relevant terrorist activities. China is paying close attention to this, and will have security cooperation with relevant countries," Cheng said.

Afghanistan: Ghani’s Pivot to Pakistan Falls Flat

Are Afghanistan and Pakistan Losing Detente? The Peace Window Is Closing For AfPak

BY MARVIN G. WEINBAUM



    Relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan have changed over the last nine months. But progress toward reconciliation has at best stalled, potentially forfeiting an historic opportunity.
    Few can fail to see the signs of change in relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan over the last nine months. Not only has the tone improved, but encouraging steps by both sides point to a possible ending to the nearly 70-year history of mostly discord. Afghans and Pakistanis increasingly appreciate that their domestic insurgencies cannot be overcome without each other and how, in other respects, their countries’ futures are intertwined. These developments would not have occurred without a new Afghan leader’s determination to push a regional political and economic agenda and Pakistan’s reexamination of its strategic options with Afghanistan.
    Yet further progress in resetting ties between the two countries is in doubt and the diplomatic gains realized could be reversed. It was inevitable that historic suspicions on both sides would be aroused. Most seriously, a wide body of opinion in Afghanistan questions Pakistan’s sincerity about seeking a cooperative, mutually beneficial relationship. What is undeniable is the striking disconnect between Pakistan’s highly conciliatory rhetoric and its continued hosting of Afghan insurgent groups. Skeptics insist that the true test of Pakistan’s seriousness would be its expulsion of the insurgency’s Quetta Shura and Haqqani Network. Pakistan’s reluctance to end its patronage of these groups underscores the continued grip of older strategic thinking even as it pursues new approaches to Afghanistan.
    Let us accept the fact that a shift in attitudes toward Afghanistan has occurred at the highest levels of Pakistan’s military and civilian leadership. In a clear departure from the past, Afghanistan’s enemies have been declared to be Pakistan’s enemies, and Afghan Taliban fighters are accused of acts of terrorism. Despite having ostensibly broken with the Taliban post-2001, members of Pakistan’s premier intelligence service, the Inter-Service Intelligence, are known to have indulged and at times colluded with Afghan insurgents. By the recent admission of former President Pervez Musharraf, Pakistan had sought to weaken Afghanistan as a means of countering Indian influence in the country. Also driving Pakistan’s policies was the belief that international efforts to build a viable Afghan state were likely to fail with the country fragmenting ethnically and geographically. Against that outcome, Pakistan’s Afghan Pashtun clients were at a minimum expected to provide a security belt along bordering Afghan provinces.
    Several developments prompted Pakistan’s reevaluation. The United States and its NATO allies, together with the international donor community, have shown a more lasting commitment to Afghanistan than was anticipated. Even in the face of a sharp foreign military drawdown and an unrelenting insurgency, the backing of a large Afghan security force makes it unlikely that the Taliban will easily overrun the country as it did two decades ago. Unlike the 1990s, when Pakistan faced no Pashtun insurgency of its own, policymakers now have to fear that an Afghan Taliban military victory will energize and empower Pakistan’s ethnically and ideologically similar militants.
    Pakistan has thus been willing along with Afghanistan and its allies to explore a negotiated way out of the Afghan conflict. As against the uncertainties of outright Taliban rule or a chaotic civil war, a political solution would seem an attractive alternative for Pakistan. A power sharing arrangement that immersed the Afghan Taliban in coalition politics could also act to check its influence spreading to the region. Yet Pakistan has complicated Afghan-sponsored efforts to arrange peace talks by precluding any negotiators but those trusted in an agreement to protect its security interests. A more promising area for coordination with Afghanistan was created in recent years by Pakistan’s hard-pressed Taliban finding sanctuary in Afghanistan. Pakistan’s efforts to enlist the Afghan military to flush them out have naturally raised expectations in Kabul of reciprocal action by Pakistan’s army against the Afghan Taliban.
    But as long as a viscerally anti-Pakistan Hamid Karzai occupied the Afghan presidency, deep distrust limited the two countries’ ability to pursue common objectives. Ashraf Ghani’s election, however, brought to the office a leader whose extensive plans for Afghanistan were from the outset predicated on bettering relations with Pakistan. For the first time, Pakistan could now envision having a friendly government in Kabul without needing to subordinate it.
    Some in Pakistan, most notably hardliners in Pakistan’s intelligence service,complain that Pakistan’s leaders have gone too far in their reaching out to Afghanistan. But opposition to a normalization of relations is more vocal on the Afghan side. Ghani drew heavy criticism for agreeing to have a few military cadets train in Pakistan and was condemned for reportedly allowing Afghan troops to coordinate with Pakistan forces in military border operations against the Pakistani Taliban. Discussions on trade and broad economic cooperation were also met with suspicion. But it was an agreement several weeks ago for broad intelligence sharing with Pakistan’s hated military that spiked ire among Afghan politicians and with the public.
    Under pressure, a politically weakened Ghani has backtracked. In a tough letter to Pakistan’s leaders in late May, he conditioned further cooperation on their meeting a long list of demands, including the immediate cutting of ties to the Afghan Taliban groups and the arrest of their leaders. Predictably, Pakistan has ignored Ghani’s ultimatums. It is plainly in no rush to make enemies of its long sheltered Afghan insurgents and risk their teaming up with Pakistan’s militants to attack the state. More broadly, Pakistan is unprepared to give up on those groups considered strategic assets until convinced that the unity government and a unified Afghan state are likely to endure. Thus at the same time that Pakistan has moved toward policies intended to enhance Afghanistan’s stability, it continues to back forces set on undermining that very outcome.
    Putting the process of reconciliation back on track will require hard choices by both sides. Even if Pakistan may not be ready to meet demands that it completely rein in Afghan insurgent groups, it can visibly make their cross-border movement more difficult. Pakistan can also be more strategic in using its influence to strengthen those within the Taliban leadership more inclined toward a political solution. At the same time, Afghanistan should not take Pakistan’s facilitation of peace talks as the principal measure of its sincerity. While Pakistan has shown that it can play spoiler, its ability to steer Taliban leaders has always been greatly exaggerated. With the insurgency surging it is hard to see an incentive to accept a ceasefire and agree to join the Afghan political system. Meanwhile, the Afghan government’s prospects for negotiations are even less clear given the increasingly decentralized Taliban and the emergence of the Islamic State.
    Progress toward reconciliation has at best stalled. Better communication between security forces is needed to avoid border clashes such as occurred last week. It is all too easy for Pakistan and Afghanistan to slip back into a familiar pattern of mutual recriminations. Neither country can ignore how much their interests have converged and what is at stake. If efforts to improve relations fail, an historic opportunity to put Afghanistan and the region on a course toward stability and economic progress will have been forfeited.