Erdogan ‘Morsi of Turkey,’ will not last past 2016: Turkish opposition head

“Erdogan is the Morsi of our country, he’s our Brotherhood representative, and therefore he took a negative stance towards Sisi. And he will go down like Morsi.”

Dogu Perincek, the Chairman of the Turkish Workers Party, has been a vocal opponent of Turkish President Erdogan since his election in 2002. Perincek he was sentenced to life in prison in August 2013 after he was found guilty of “plotting against the Turkish government.” He was released, however, in March 2014.

“Egypt is our strategic ally and friend. And we are stuck, destined to be allied with Egypt, we need it. The history of both countries is very similar,” said Perincek.

Relations between Turkey and Egypt have significantly chilled since the ouster of Mohamed Morsi in July 2013; Ergogan has frequently referred to the ouster as a “coup,” and Egypt has accused him of interfering in internal affairs.

“We are the only political party in Turkey that called June 30 a revolution,” Perincek told The Cairo Post, adding  “In his heart, Erdogan is afraid that he might face the same end as Morsi did, therefore he rejected fiercely the June 30 revolution and the fall of Morsi.”

Perincek said he saw a “new climate” emerging in the Middle East: “Relatively secular, relatively free, and more tolerant. “

“These countries are condemned to tolerance, and destined to secularism. If there’s no secularism, we can’t maintain our national unity. In that sense, Turkey and Egypt need to cooperate in the area of secularity and in the area of independence with each other,” he said.

Perincek predicted that Erdogan would not continue his tenure past 2016 in Turkey, citing reasons of high foreign debt, as well as his isolation from other countries.

“The individual, somewhat fanatic positions of Erdogan, which are not well-thought out, are bound to be erased….Fueling the economy all the time by taking on foreign debt has come to an end. Turkey is facing $250 billion of debt to be paid in this year.”

“Erdogan has no chance to borrow that much to pay the debt, and he won’t be able to keep the wheel turning. That means that the economy of Erdogan will collapse,” he added.

Why is Turkey censoring lingerie, antique books?

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Jordan vows ‘earth-shaking’ response to IS’ killing of pilot

Jordan on Tuesday threatened an “earth-shaking response” for the burning alive of Jordanian pilot Muath Kasasbeh by the so-called Islamic State (IS) terrorist group, while His Majesty King Abdullah urged Jordanians to stand united at these crucial times.

Following the release of a video showing a group of IS masked terrorists burning Kasasbeh alive, the Jordan Armed Forces-Arab Army (JAF) issued a statement saying that the officer was killed on January 3, nine days after his F-16 crashed over Raqqa in northeast Syria (see text of the army statement in separate story).

In his statement, aired on Jordan TV, King Abdullah described IS as a cowardly terrorist group that has nothing to do with true Islam, praising Kasasbeh as a brave pilot who was fighting in defence of Islam, his country and his nation.

The Royal Court announced that King Abdullah would cut short his visit to the US, with the White House announcing an unscheduled meeting between the King and President Barack Obama in Washington later Tuesday before the King’s departure.

In its statement, the army vowed a response that is “proportionate to the magnitude of the tragedy of all Jordanians”, according to the statement read on Jordan TV by JAF Spokesperson Colonel Mamdouh Ameri.

A similar reaction was echoed by Government Spokesperson Mohammad Momani, who said several measures will be taken by the Kingdom to respond to this brutal group.

In a statement aired by Jordan TV, Momani said that Jordan’s response to the assassination “will be swift. Jordanians’ wrath will devastate Daesh’s ranks”.

Addressing those who had doubt about the brutality of IS, the minister said what the group did is proof of such brutality.

“For those who used to believe that this group represents Islam, this is the proof, and for those who had doubts about the unity of Jordanians against this evil, we will show them what unity we have.”

He added that Kasasbeh does not belong to one tribe or one governorate, but to all the Jordanian people.

Jordanian citizens, political parties and key figures were in a state of shock Tuesday evening, voicing their rage as well as solidarity with the family of the fallen soldier and vowing support for JAF and security agencies as the country rises to respond to the terrorist threat.

Young people spontaneously took to the streets, including members of the pilot’s family, to condemn the execution of Kasasbeh.

Muneer Rawashdeh was one of the participants at the gathering in Dabouq, where hundreds of relatives and Jordanians flocked to offer condolences to the pilot’s family at a Karak Tribes Diwan (tribal meeting place).  

“Muath is a hero. We will remember him as a hero who fought this terrorist organisation,” he said. 

“We are very angry because of what happened and we should avenge his assassination,” said Rawashdeh. 

Azzam Kasasbeh, another participant, said: “I offer my condolences to all Jordanians. This hero is the son of all Jordanians. We need to be united at this stage. We should have faith in our army. We should support our army to kill those terrorists.”

Munther Hammad, a university student, urged a continued war against “blood-thirsty terrorists”. 

The Ministry of Awqaf and Islamic Affairs, meanwhile, urged Jordanians to perform “prayers for the absent”, a group funeral prayers performed for those who die on strange land and did not receive proper burial. The faithful will gather at mosques around the country to do the ritual at midday prayers, the Jordan News Agency, Petra, reported. 

Church leaders also called on their congregations to toll bells and hold special masses to honour the fallen soldier, Petra said.

The international community also expressed its anger at the brutal killing of the officer, and offered sympathies to his family and the Jordanian people.

Last week, the terrorist group released a video showing Japanese hostage Kenji Goto holding a doctored picture of Kasasbeh, and threatening to kill both Kasasbeh and the Japanese hostage if Jordan did not release the convicted terrorist Sajida Rishawi.

However, the government insisted on receiving proof that Kasasbeh was alive for the swap to take place. IS on Saturday released a video showing the beheading of Goto without any comment on the fate of Kasasbeh.

According to Momani, the government asked for proof of life then because it had suspicions in this regard. 

Video Report - Purported IS Video Shows Jordan Pilot Killed

Video Report - President Obama: ISIS operating on a 'bankrupt' ideology

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Pakistan - A group of Muslim lawyers blocking justice in killer Mumtaz Qadri case

Dr. Nazir S Bhatti, President of Pakistan Christian Congress PCC has strongly condemned a group of Muslim lawyer’s fraternity who gather on hearing dates of killer Mumtaz Qadri in Islamabad High Court during his appeal against his death sentence to press upon judges to free a killer who committed murder of former Governor Punjab Salman Taseer in front of his fellow police guards and publically admitted his heinous crime as Islamic duty to kill blasphemer on meeting a blasphemy accused Christian woman Asia Bibi in jail.

Mumtaz Qadri, a police guard on official duty to protect Governor Punjab Salman Tasee in Islamabad on 4 January 2011, sprayed bullets from his gun and murdered him before other body guards.

The rose petals were offered to killer Mumtaz Qadri when he first appeared in court after murder by large number of Muslim lawyers like a hero treatment with kisses and hugs.

The Chief Justice of Lahore High Court Justice Khawaja Sharif announced to head legal team of Mumtaz Qadri when he was sentence to death by lower courts.

The crime of Governor Salman Taseer was that he went in Sheikhupura District jail to visit Christian mother Asia Bibi who was sentenced to death on accusation of blasphemy in 2009. Governor Salman Taseer was termed as blasphemer on meeting Asia Bibi in jail and calling blasphemy laws as un-Islamic law in his public comments.

Dr. Nazir Bhatti said that it’s shameful that a group of lawyer and former CJ of LHC are putting pressure on IHC Division Bench to release a killer who committed heinous crime and justified his action before millions of media viewers.

“I am surprised that lawyers who are condemning 21st Amendment in constitution in their conventions but silent on protests of a group of lawyers in Islamabad High Courts to pressure judges to release a killer” said Nazir Bhatti

Nazir Bhatti added “It seems as government of Pakistan have paved way for release of killer Mumtaz Qadri by hiding his case files”

PCC Chief urged government to stop lawyers from gathering in court room during hearing of killer Mumtaz Qadri or hold his hearing in prison.

Dr. Nazir Bhatti feared that killing of Christians and Ahmadiyyia community members who will be accused of blasphemy will rise outside courts by hands of radical Muslims if courts freed killer Mumtaz Qadri when incidents of burning alive of Christian couple and murder of Ahmadiyyia members in jails and police lockups by police officers have happened;

The Pakhtun-Baloch relationship

By Adnan Aamir

Last Sunday, an article published in The News on Sunday, titled , was a rant about lack of autonomy of Pakhtuns of Balochistan. The author of that article has given an impression, between the lines, that Baloch are responsible for the current plight of the Pakthuns of Balochistan. Historical facts have been twisted by the author to prove his point, which need to be corrected.

The author states in the article, “Before the British occupation, the name of Balochistan never existed in history to represent a geo-physical entity.” A study of history tells us that first Baloch confederacy was formed under the leadership of Mir Jalal in 12th century. In 1666, Khanate of Balochistan came into existence which was later renamed Khanate of Kalat due to its capital city Kalat. Inayatullah Baloch, in his book “The Problem of Greater Baluchistan,” writes that at its zenith, Khanate of Balochistan stretched from Kerman in Modern day Iran to Indus River in Pakistan.

Similarly, the author has made another absurd claim about Quetta by maintaining that British handed over Quetta to Khan of Kalat in 1841, in the aftermath of first Anglo-Afghan war. This claim has no basis in history and it is an unsubstantiated claim. Quetta was known as Shaaland it was a part of Khanate of Kalat during the reign of Nasir Khan-I and this is well documented in history books.

In 1839, British invaded Kalat state and handed over Quetta and Mastung to Shah Shujah of Afghanistan. A.B Awan in his book “Baluchistan: Historical and Political Processes” writes that “in 1841 after a brief war, an agreement was reached between British and Kalat state. In that agreement Quetta and Mastung were returned back to Kalat.”

The author has asserted that British-Balochistan had 90 per cent Pakthun population which is a misstatement. British-Balochistan not only included Pakthun areas acquired through Gandamak Treaty but also Baloch areas. Quetta, Noshki, Chagai Tribal areas, Nasirabad, Sibi, Bolan and Marri-Bugti tribal areas were also part of the erstwhile British-Balochistan. Absence of historical data about demographics makes it impossible to ascertain the exact proportions of population but it is safe to assume that British-Balochistan had equal Baloch and Pakthun population, if not Baloch majority.

Furthermore, the said article makes the factually inaccurate claim that Quetta division during One-Unit had a Pakthun majority population. However, the results of 1962 and 1966 general elections for National Assembly of Pakistan, held through basic democrats system, contradict this claim. In 1962 elections, Nawab Khair Bakhsh Marri was elected Member of National Assembly (MNA) from Quetta division. In 1966, there were two electoral constituencies for Quetta division and both were won by Baloch candidates namely; Mir Darya Khan Khoso and Mir Nabi Bakhsh Zehri. So if Quetta division had Pakthun majority then Baloch politicians would have never won from there.

The current arrangement of Balochistan is something that Baloch leaders didn’t want either. President Yahya Khan decided to amalgamate Pakthun belt of British-Balochistan with Kalat state to form Balochistan province. Baloch leaders under the leadership of Khan of Kalat requested Yahya Khan to not include Pakthun areas in Balochistan. Yahya Khan, however, rejected their plea and proceeded with his scheme of provinces. So, it has never been the desire of Baloch to have a province with Pakthun districts in the north. That is the reason that today no Baloch nationalist opposes the demand of a separate province for Pakthuns of Balochistan.

Redrawing the borders of Balochistan can be carried out by either establishing a separate province for Pakthuns in Balochistan or amalgamating it with Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP). A separate province is economically not viable due to its size and small population. Amalgamation with KP poses political and geographic challenges.

Politically the people of Pakthun belt of Balochistan will be at loss as they will be having less percentage of seats in provincial assembly of KP, as compared to what they have in Balochistan Assembly. Geographic challenge is that FATA and Frontier Region are situated between Pakthun belt of Balochistan and KP which further complicates the matter.

It should also not be forgotten that all the major natural resources of the Balochistan are situated in Baloch areas. Sui gas fields, Rekodiq goldmines, Saindak copper-gold mines and coastal belt, all of these are situated in Baloch areas. It is due to the natural resources of Baloch belt that share of Balochistan in National Finance commission (NFC) has increased and Pakthun belt is also benefitting from it.

Presently, Pakthuns have politically and economically greater control on Balochistan as compared to their population. It is true that, except one, all chief ministers of Balochistan have been Baloch. However, it is also true that all Baloch CMs have always required the support of their Pakthun coalition partners. Even today the Balochistan government is equally shared by Baloch and Pakthun nationalists. Therefore, claiming that Pakthuns are not getting their due share in provincial setup is nothing but an incorrect line of argument which is also pursued by a major political party of Balochistan.

Balochistan at the moment is facing many challenges in shape of lack of provincial autonomy and control on the natural resources of the province. The unity of Baloch and Pakthuns of Balochistan is the need of the hour in order to bargain effectively with Islamabad. Blaming the Baloch will do no good to either Baloch or Pakthun cause.

'China, Russia back India on UN terror resolution targeting Pakistan'

China and Russia decided on Monday to back the Comprehensive Convention on International Terrorism (CCIT) — a resolution supported by India and heavily biased against Pakistan.

At a meeting of Russia-India-China (RIC) in Beijing, Indian External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj said her counterparts from the two countries understood the need for endorsing the resolution that has been pending at the UN for nearly two decades and seeks to widen the existing definition of terrorism.

The CCIT was proposed by India in 1996 in lieu of Pakistan allegedly backing Kashmiri separatists.

In Tuesday’s meeting, the RIC communiqué vouched to oppose terrorism of all forms and called all countries to join efforts in combating terrorism together with the United Nations.

Speaking at a press conference after the RIC meeting, Swaraj told reporters: “Our discussions on terrorism brought consensus on two issues. Firstly, there can be no ideological, religious, political, racial or any other justification for the acts of terrorism and secondly the need to bring to justice perpetrators, organizers, financiers and sponsors of these acts of terror.”

Swaraj added that the ministers emphasized the need to step up information gathering and sharing and prevent the use of the Internet and other information and communication technologies (ICTs) for the purposes of recruitment and incitement to commit terrorist acts.

Pakistan - Campaign Against Polio

Being a polio worker in Pakistan has to be one of the most dangerous jobs in the world. Since 2012, militants opposed to the vaccination campaign have killed 68 polio workers and policemen tasked with protecting them. Of the 300 cases of polio infection reported last, most come from Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa and FATA. In the last three years, 23 cases have emerged in Karachi alone – all of them from communities related to KP and FATA. The two major hurdles in the drive against polio are propaganda and direct violence.
Several parents refuse to vaccinate their children because they consider the whole thing to be a Western conspiracy. Some believe that the polio drops cause infertility while others view the campaign as a cover for a wide-scale spying exercise. That Dr Shakil Afridi ran a fake vaccination campaign for the US to track down Osama Bin Laden has certainly not helped. Now, there is proof if any was ever required. The issue of non-cooperation by certain communities is exacerbated by the violence unleashed on polio workers and policemen guarding them. Militants have been consistently targeting them to keep them out of certain areas, leading to a rise in cases despite intensified efforts. It is not only a message for those working as part of the anti-polio campaign, but also serves as a warning for people living in militant strongholds. An obvious solution to this would be to provide enhanced security to vaccination teams, but it is easier said than done.
In Karachi, for example, the police force is far too small to deal with the situation. The city is plagued with ethnic, political and sectarian violence, and despite the ongoing operation led by Rangers, the killings have not been curbed. Taking a chunk of police officials and tasking them with protection of polio workers would make it even more difficult to manage law and order. Therefore, without increasing capacity on an emergency basis, no lasting solution can be achieved. The government is attempting to counter propaganda surrounding polio through awareness campaigns and by taking religious scholars on board. Their endorsement certainly carries weight in communities that are opposed to vaccinations due to religious beliefs. However, polio workers remain vulnerable to violence. Most of them are poor individuals, who cannot afford to turn down a job even though it pays very little. But the price they end up paying for doing the good work of securing children against a paralyzing infection is far too high

Pakistan - Saudi Salve Nawaz & Saudi influence - ''Hunter Princes''

'Hunter Princes''


The Saudis prove that the arrogance of royalty can often know no bounds as an advance party of a Saudi prince has arrived with his falcons in Chagai district of Balochistan. The young hunter, Governor of Tabuk, Prince Fahd bin Sultan bin Abdulaziz Al-Saud, will be killing game birds for a few weeks, something that has recently been banned by the Pakistan government. A part of Chagai district has been dedicated to the prince for this purpose. Last year, he was able to hunt 2,100 rare birds and this sparked an international outcry. Thus the Balochistan High Court (BHC) cancelled all special hunting permits issued by the federal government. The party is here despite knowing that the permits have been discontinued. Not only Saudi royalty, but an advance party of the United Arab Emirates Vice President and ruler of Dubai, Sheikh Mohammad bin Rashid Al-Maktoum has also been scoping out the area for potential game.
The problem is not just that these royals feel that they have a right to the game, but that local government and elites have allowed them to have this right. Rather the foreigners relying on rule of law and automatically staying away knowing that the ban will be enforced, they have the audacity to come here and act in brazen opposition to the law with no objections. Wildlife officials have little say over the hunting issue because of the influence wielded by the royal hunters. Whenever a wildlife official reports illegal hunting, he is punished. We don’t respect our own laws while every few days a Pakistani loses his head for breaking Saudi laws, caught drug trafficking. 
The second issue is not just that of law but of the preservation of these birds. The next generation should not be seeing these majestic birds only in books. We have been bowing down to Saudi influence and interest for decades now, such that it bleeds into such little things, and this has to stop. While Balochistan has bigger issues to tackle, such as missing persons and separatism, the civil society there should not let this one go. This is a matter of provincial autonomy and the preservation of natural resources including flora and fauna. Yet, with the public consensus against the hunt, we are all uncertain about whether the Pakistani government has the guts to say no to the Saudis.

Pakistan - Aitzaz demands Senate debate on petrol shortage, poll rigging

Leader of the Opposition in Senate, Chaudhry Aitzaz Ahsan Tuesday called for a debate in the upper house of Parliament on recent petrol shortage and alleged rigging in the 2013 general election.

Speaking on a point of order, he alleged that the scarcity of petrol was created artificially to make quick buck.

The international oil prices had decreased from Rs120 to 46 per barrel and the benefit had not yet been

passed on to the consumers. He criticised Minister for Petroleum and Natural Resources Shahid Khaqan Abbasi over the issue.

Aitzaz said there should also be a discussion on alleged irregularities in 2013 elections as Senate elections were nearing.

PPP Senator Saeed Ghani, speaking on a point of order, said the caretaker cabinet of Gilgit Baltistan should be dissolved.

Tahir Hussain Mashhadi of MQM said that emergency should be imposed in Sindh province in the aftermath of Shikarpur imambargah massacre.

Senator Abdul Rauf staged a walkout on alleged changes in the design of Pakistan China Economic Corridor.

Deputy Chairman Sabir Ali Baloch allotted opposition seat to Senator Muhammad Hamayun Khan

Mandokhel on his request.

Earlier, Mandokhel had announced withdrawal of his support to the government.

Meanwhile, the deputy chairman referred the breach of a privilege motion of Senator Ilyas Bilour to the relevant standing committee.

Responding to the motion, Minister for Commerce Khurram Dastigir Khan said strict action would be taken against the official for breaching the privilege of the senator.

Senator Bilour said his privilege had been breached by an official of commerce ministry.

Pakistan - PPP Senator lashes at national internal security policy

ppppunjab.wordpress.com


PPP Senator Farhatullah Babar has said that the national internal security policy (NISP) announced early last year was seriously flawed that failed to acknowledge that internal security
policy is driven by a nation’s external security policy and that was why it was a non starter and the government itself did not believe in it.
The NISP unrealistically promised to reform 23, 000 madrassah in just one year, complete a host of legal reforms in 6 months and bring all 33 intelligence agencies under one roof but nothing had been done,
even it was not brought before the Parliament despite persistent demands.
A state’s Internal security policy cannot be de-linked from its external security policy he said and as long as a state pursues questionable external security policy goals its internal security policy will continue to confused, directionless and even counterproductive, he said.
Re-incarnation of the banned outfit LeT re-emerge as JuD as a humanitarian organization, the emergence of Moulana Masood Azhar of the banned Jaish Muhammad and the public declaration by Asmatulah Muawiya to direct his guns at Afghanistan without being challenged by the state demonstrate that we still cherish dubious external security goals. Pursuit of such external security objectives cannot help advance the cause of our internal security policy objectives, he said.
The NISP policy fails to address the issue of banned militant groups which have re-appeared under different names and as charities.
He said the claim to reform 23,000 madaris in just one year was laughable as the government has admitted in reply to parliamentary questions that record of thousands of registered madaris not available, which madaris received foreign funding and which one promoted extremism.
He said that NISP described ISI namely as also law enforcement agency and asked since when it had been made a law enforcing agency. The ISI was a premier intelligence agency that performed certain roles but law enforcement was not one of them. The law enforcement agencies are created by law and are subject to law but the Parliament had not yet made any law for the intelligence agency.
On another motion on civil service reforms he said that one reason for it was the appointment of non-cadre officers against cadre posts that bred resentment in the entire cadre.
Giving example he said the cadre post of DG of Military Lands and Cantonments which was a grade 21 post of the MLC cadre had been occupied for the past over 16 years by non-cadre officers that has demoralized the entire service.
He said that DG is BS 21 civilian cadre post of the ML&C Department and appointments to it are made by the Public Service Commission through CSS exams. Since 1924 the post has been held by civilian officer of the department representing the federal government until General Musharraf soon after take over appointed a serving military officer to it in 1999.
The continued retention of civilian cadre posts by a non-cadre officer is illegal, a violation of the Supreme Court order, a recipe to demoralize and undermine civilian structures and above all a conflict of interest, he said and called for a reversal of the illegal policy.

As the US moves closer to India, Pakistan looks to Russia

Tim Craig 

Islamabad’s military and political leaders are seeking to warm ties with Moscow that have been frosty since the cold war.

As the US forges closer ties to India, neighbouring Pakistan is looking for some new friends. Officials hope they have found one in Russia – a budding partnership that could eventually shift historic alliances in south Asia.

In recent months, Pakistani military and political leaders have reached out to Moscow, seeking to warm ties that have been frosty since the cold war. In November, Russian defence minister Sergei Shoigu visited Islamabad and signed a military cooperation agreement with Pakistani generals. Pakistan now hopes to finalise plans to buy three dozen Russian Mi-35 helicopters and more closely coordinate efforts to counter terrorism and narcotics. Pakistan also wants Russian assistance to stabilise chronic energy shortages.

The moves come as Pakistani leaders grow increasingly nervous that their traditional alliances could erode, if not crumble, in the coming years. For much of its history, Pakistan has been an ally of the US, while Russia had stronger ties to India, even backing it during that country’s 1971 war with Pakistan. But now that most Nato troops have left next-door Afghanistan – and the Pakistani army isstraining to overcome Islamist militants on its western border – officials fear that the US’s regional interest is tilting toward India, Pakistan’s eastern neighbour and arch-rival.

“Of course we are concerned,” said one senior Pakistani military leader, who spoke on condition of anonymity. “The balance of power is being tipped towardIndia, and that is not good, and it’s been done with the help of the western world. That is why we are looking at various markets, because conventional [military] parity is the only recipe for peace and stability.”

Pakistan’s efforts to kindle ties with Moscow come as relations between the west and Russia continue to worsen, which may prompt it to look for new trading partners in Asia. Pakistanis are also worried the Indian army is moving toward dominance in the conventional arms race.

Those concerns were magnified last month, when US President Barack Obama met in Delhi with Indian prime minister Narendra Modi. Obama and Modi vowed to strengthen cooperation on defence and energy matters, and they announced a deal that they said should smooth the way for American companies to invest in Indian civilian nuclear plants.

Since Pakistan was partitioned from India in 1947, the two nuclear-armed countries have fought three major wars. So when Obama was the guest of honour at an elaborate military parade in Delhi, it was viewed with scepticism.

“To be very honest, we think Obama has gone one step too far,” said Maria Sultan, chairwoman of the Islamabad-based South Asian Strategic Stability Institute, an organisation with close links to Pakistani military and intelligence.

In another sign of the unease, Pakistan’s powerful army chief, Raheel Sharif, travelled to China last month to solidify long-standing military and economic ties between the two countries. China is Pakistan’s largest arms supplier, having sold or transferred it nearly $4bn in weapons since 2006, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (Sipri), which monitors arms sales.

The US, with about $2.5bn in arms sales to Pakistan over the past nine years, is the country’s second-largest arms supplier. In December, Congress also authorised $1bn in additional funds to Pakistan for its continued support of counter-terrorism operations. But it is unclear how much American aid will flow to Pakistan in the coming years.

Tasnim Aslam, spokeswoman for Pakistan’s ministry of foreign affairs, said Pakistan doesn’t want to “put all of its eggs in one basket”.

“It’s a multi-polar world, and it’s in our interest to engage all the poles and forge relationships,” said Aslam, who last month led a high-level Pakistani delegation to Moscow to discuss future ties.Noting secretary of state John Kerry had a productive visit to Islamabad last month, Aslam said Washington shouldn’t read too much into Pakistan’s outreach to Vladimir Putin. But some Pakistani lawmakers offered a more pointed view of Pakistan’s rapprochement with Russia.

“Pakistan’s historical mistake after its inception was to establish close ties with the United States but to ignore the Russians,” said Haji Muhammad Adeel, a lawmaker who chairs the Pakistani senate’s foreign relations committee. “We went to war with Russia in Afghanistan, and that brought us gifts of terrorism, extremism and drugs. Now Pakistan is trying to forge friendly ties with Russia to correct the mistakes of past.”Despite that outreach, it remains unclear whether Pakistan’s efforts to bolster ties with Russia will pay off.

Russian diplomats in Islamabad declined to comment on the two countries’ relations. But Russia is India’s largest arms supplier, with $18bn in sales since 2006, according to Sipri.

Yury Barmin, a Russian foreign policy expert based in the United Arab Emirates, said he doubts Russia would risk its relationship with India by also selling arms to Pakistan. He said he suspects Putin, who visited Delhi in December, is using Pakistan as leverage over the Indian government so it doesn’t get too close to the US.

“It’s the way Russian diplomacy works,” Barmin said. “They find a pressure point, but then they go to India and release the pressure and say, ‘Hey, we are not developing that relationship any more.’”

But Rifaat Hussain, an Islamabad-based defence expert, said the west should not underestimate the potential for a realignment of strategic ties in Asia.

“There is now a visible strain with Moscow’s relationship with the United States, and Moscow has moved much closer to China, which I think facilitates Pakistan’s relationship with Russia,” Hussain said.

NOTHING COMES WITHOUT CONDITIONS: CHINA’S RELATIONSHIP WITH PAKISTAN

By Myra MacDonald

In one of the many revealing anecdotes in Andrew Small’s new book on the relationship between China and Pakistan, a Chinese expert describes worries about the Islamization of the Pakistan Army. “We’re not worried about the generals, we’re worried the brigadiers,” the Chinese expert says. The generals were old enough to have established their habits by the time military ruler Muhammad Zia-ul-Haq seized power in a coup in 1977 and promoted a militant strain of Islam in the country and its army. “They drink, they send their children to study in the United States or Great Britain. The younger ones are sending their children to study in the Gulf.”

The comments highlight an often-overlooked ambivalence in China’s attitude to Pakistan. Though Beijing has always been willing to use Pakistan to counter India, its support is conditional. Like the United States and India, China worries about the threat posed by the rise of violent Islamism to the outside world and to Pakistan itself. That makes it a potential ally in helping to stabilize Pakistan. As Washington and New Delhi forge ever closer ties—highlighted by President Barack Obama’s visit to India—they will need careful diplomacy to avoid alienating China with talk of containing it and instead seek to enlist its help.

In The China-Pakistan Axis, Small recounts China’s role in helping Pakistan obtain nuclear weapons and nuclear-capable missiles by supplying technology and expertise—going as far as flying in supplies of highly enriched uranium—to help it keep pace with India’s nuclear weapons program. But China has never committed troops on Pakistan’s behalf, even during its many conflicts with India, and has often been more inclined to work with the United States to try to defuse a crisis than provide Pakistan with support.

As Small writes, “China would like to see the India-Pakistan relationship exist in a state of managed mistrust,” one which keeps India tied down in its own neighborhood rather than challenging China across their long land border or competing with it in the rest of Asia. But, particularly since India and Pakistan conducted nuclear tests in 1998, China has also fretted about the possibility of an all-out war between the two. Thus when Pakistan began a border conflict with India in the Kargil region of Jammu and Kashmir in 1999, China refused to provide military or diplomatic support. Significantly, Chinese officials were in regular contact with their U.S. counterparts during the Kargil crisis to ensure both Beijing and Washington delivered the same message to Pakistan about the need to pull back its troops. Those contacts would come as a surprise to many in Pakistan, which has tried to use its “all-weather friendship” with China to balance its often-antagonistic relationship with the United States, little realizing the two could also work together behind its back. Similarly, after the attack on Mumbai by the Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) in 2008, China refused to use its veto in the United Nations Security Council to block sanctions against the Jamaat-ud-Dawa, the front organization for the LeT. It would, as Small notes, be ready to help Pakistan in the event of an unexpected Indian invasion. But there would be no blank check to underwrite Pakistani adventurism. “As with its enduring assistance to Pakistan’s nuclear program, the most significant backing that China provides does not come in the midst of the latest crisis, but from the steady, long-term commitment to ensure that Pakistan has the capabilities it needs to play the role China wants it to,” writes Small.

There is, of course, a level of trust and intimacy between China and Pakistan that comes from the sharing of military and nuclear secrets. China also worked closely with Pakistan to supply weapons, paid for by the United States and Saudi Arabia, to militants fighting the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan from 1979 to 1989. Until relatively recently, moreover, it was able to rely on Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency to gain access to the Afghan Taliban and other Islamist militants to ensure Chinese interests were left alone and Uighur militants from its Xinjiang region kept in check. But as Pakistan began to lose its grip on Islamist militants, China also lost some of its confidence in Pakistan. At home, China has faced increased attacks from Uighur militants; while in both Pakistan and Afghanistan, Chinese workers have been killed. Hence its worries about the Pakistan Army: it is one thing to support a national military against India and quite another to supply one being eaten away from within by a virulent strain of violent Islamism.

China’s concerns mean that while it had feared an outright U.S. victory in the Afghan war that would allow it to set up permanent military bases in the region, it also has common cause with Washington in its desire for regional stability. Indeed it was U.S. drone strikes rather than Pakistani troops that killed Uighur militant leaders wanted by China in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) of Pakistan.

The coincidence of interests between China and the United States is perhaps best illustrated by their views of the potential threat posed by Islamist militants to Pakistan’s nuclear weapons. Their views are not the same—Small writes that efforts by Washington to draw Beijing into discussions about contingency planning to secure nuclear weapons in the event of a crisis have been routinely rebuffed. But they do overlap. “Would we accept a U.S. intervention to seize Pakistan’s nuclear weapons? No. Are we as worried as [the United States] about the security of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons? No,” Small quotes a Chinese expert as saying. “But China is willing to help Pakistan defend a Pakistani bomb. We won’t help them protect an Islamic bomb. If it’s under the control of a mullah, then everything changes. It’s not unconditional.”

China, like the United States and India, is obviously hoping it won’t come to that. It is still making plans for an economic corridor through Pakistan that would link western China with the Gulf. Those plans could anchor Pakistan into a more stable framework of rising economic growth if security is improved enough to permit it. Small’s book, however, is an important reminder that if Pakistan continues to slide into instability, China’s help will be sorely needed. It should be compulsory reading for anyone too carried away by the euphoria of warming U.S.-India ties and tempted to believe China can be nudged out of the picture.

 http://warontherocks.com/2015/02/nothing-comes-without-conditions-chinas-relationship-with-pakistan/?singlepage=1

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