#Pakistan - Gulf States Shrug as India Seizes Kashmir

By Walter Russell Mead

New Delhi is a major trading partner and powerful friend in a dangerous region.

The Muslim-majority state of Jammu and Kashmir enjoyed a unique status in predominantly Hindu India for more than 70 years. No more. Both houses of the Indian Parliament have approved legislation to divide Kashmir into two “union territories” and allow non-Kashmiri Indians to move freely into the region, open businesses and buy land. Many Kashmiris fear the result will be a wave of migration that ends any hope of Kashmiri independence or autonomy.

Pakistan, which has fought three wars with India over Kashmir, reacted with rage, but it isn’t getting much support from its purported Muslim allies in the Persian Gulf region. As hundreds of Kashmiri intellectuals, journalists and activists were arrested, and as telephone and internet service to much of the state was cut, Saudi Aramco announced a $15 billion investment in an Indian oil company. On Sunday evening, after stone-throwing crowds confronted security forces in Srinagar, Kashmir’s capital, the Indian Ministry of External Affairs announced that Prime Minister Narendra Modi will travel to the United Arab Emirates next week to receive the country’s highest civilian honor. From the U.A.E., he will travel to Bahrain on the first-ever visit to that country by a sitting Indian prime minister.

Civil libertarians and human-rights activists in India and around the world have condemned the crackdown in Kashmir, but a recent opinion poll found 57% of Indians wanted Kashmir to lose its special status. Sixty-five percent said they thought Mr. Modi could solve the Kashmir problem in five years.

In a previously scheduled visit to New Delhi to attend this weekend’s annual India-U.S. Forum sponsored by the Ananta Centre (which also paid my travel expenses), I heard worries but few regrets from well-connected Indians in government, business and the academy. People told me that for decades, India has been lavishing money on Kashmir, but the money has gone nowhere. The Kashmiri economy is a disaster, the radicalization of unemployed and underemployed young people continues to worsen, and Pakistan has no interest in helping to stabilize the situation. Yes, I heard from many Indians, the new policy is risky and could set off another round of violence, but what are the alternatives?

Many hope that if Kashmir is opened to more Indian investment, the economy will grow, young people will have better things to think about than jihad, and the political culture will become less inward-looking and more open to participation in the broader life of India.

Meanwhile, I was told, Indian security forces have become much more sophisticated when it comes to identifying the areas and families from which many of the security threats emerge. By concentrating the efforts of the security forces and law enforcement on a relatively limited high-risk population, Indian policy makers hope to reduce both the danger of terrorism and the impact of counterterrorism activities on everyday life.Perhaps. Estimates vary, but tens of thousands of people have died in Kashmir since resistance to Indian rule exploded into violence in the 1980s. Anticipating another round of violence, Indian authorities have shut down the region, closing schools and government offices and imposing curfews. Indian authorities had hoped to begin easing restrictions this weekend, but in the face of mounting protests and confrontations between security forces and stone-throwing crowds, many restrictions remain in place.

Critics worry that more violence in Kashmir will exacerbate sectarian violence across the subcontinent. Lynchings and mob attacks on minority religious communities, Christians included, have increased in India, and local officials haven't always been zealous in bringing perpetrators to justice.

That may not affect India’s relations with the hardened realpolitikers of the Gulf. As Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar reminds visitors, the economic ties between India and the Gulf are deep. Of India’s 10 largest trading partners, three are Gulf states. Roughly two-thirds of India’s energy imports come from Gulf nations, and more than half of India’s remittances come from workers there. As a growing market for Arab oil and gas, as a source of highly trained and competent personnel, and as a friendly country with a powerful military and a strong interest in geopolitical stability, India is a valuable neighbor in a dangerous part of the world.

From one angle, the willingness of the Gulf states to overlook Kashmir in dealing with India, or the Xinjiang internment camps when dealing with China, looks cynical. Yet pragmatism also has its virtues. That India and the Gulf states are setting religious and cultural differences aside to build partnerships based on common interests isn’t the worst thing that could happen in the region. Too much moral righteousness in international politics often leads to fanaticism and conflict—though too little integrity can lead to the corruption and oppression out of which new conflicts arise.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/gulf-states-shrug-as-india-seizes-kashmir-11566255385