Pakistan - PTI’s quest for opposition leadership

By Nadir Nabil Gabol

After the ouster of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif – the Leader of the House in the National Assembly – the office of the Leader of the Opposition seems to be the next target of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf. Last month, the party had reached out to the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) which was once labelled by PTI chief Imran Khan as a terrorist organisation as well as a tool being used by India’s Research and Analysis Wing to disintegrate Pakistan. Thus, Khan has once again proved to be the master of U-turns by considering an alliance with the MQM.

Khan has also shown that he’s desperate to leave his mark in the National Assembly, one way or the other. Commenting on PTI-MQM talks over the office of the Leader of the Opposition in the NA, Pervez Rashid, the former Information Minister, said that until recently Khan seemed desperate for the office of the Prime Minister and now he seemed to have settled for the office of the Opposition Leader. He went on and said that after the 2018 election Khan would likely go for the chairmanship of the Pakistan Cricket Board.

It wasn’t too long ago that Imran Khan was terming the current National Assembly as a mere farce. This was during his party’s campaign on alleged rigging in 2013 elections. Because the assembly had been constituted as a result of a rigged election, Khan had held, it could not be seen as representing the will of the Pakistani people. Why is he so desperate to clinch the position of the Opposition Leader now, even if it means aligning his party with MQM and tarnishing his credibility as a result? Must one remind him that it was the PPP and Opposition Leader Khurshid Shah who played a pivotal role in bringing the PTI back to the Assembly at a time when Imran had brought the party to the brink of resignations?

The opposition leader will be involved in deliberations leading to the formation of the interim government before next year’s elections. Zardari will never allow Khan to gain an upper hand in parliamentary politics by taking away this office from the PPP

The credit for the ouster of former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif should still go to the PTI. There’s no doubt that the PTI, through the Panama Papers case, had enabled the Supreme Court to set a precedent in Pakistan’s history and disqualify Sharif for life. It was only after Imran Khan’s threats of another dharna that Nawaz Sharif presented himself for accountability. In hindsight, that decision may come across as a bad and a miscalculated move from Sharif’s perspective. After Sharif’s disqualification, Khan proudly proclaimed that he would next go after Asif Ali Zardari. Hence, he is challenging Zardari by trying to snatch the office of the Leader of Opposition from the PPP. But the PTI chief fails to recognise that Zardari is an expert at maneuvering and cooperation.

The battle for the Leader of the Opposition’s slot is important because the office will play a key role in many decisions to be taken ahead of next year’s general elections. The office is involved in deliberations leading to the formation of the interim government. The crucial appointments of the National Accountability Bureau (NAB) chairman and Chief Election Commissioner also require input from the Opposition Leader. Zardari will never allow Khan to gain an upper hand in parliamentary politics by taking away this office from the PPP.

Imran Khan has proved to be far weaker and inexperienced in parliamentary politics compared to Zardari. Protests and media campaigns alone won’t help Khan in taking over the Opposition Leader’s office. He will need votes in the House. It is a game of numbers and the odds are stacked against Imran Khan. The PPP has 47 MNAs and is likely to take the tally up to 50 with the support of the Awami National Party (ANP) and Aftab Sherpao. Though, MNAs from the PTI and the MQM will add up to 56 but it’s possible that some members of these parties may refrain from voting. PTI’s Aisha Gulalai has recently dissented and may not cast her vote for a PTI candidate. Similarly, several MQM members may also abstain from voting. The PTI will also need to rely on other opposition parties. Jamaat-i-Islami, Pakistan Muslim League-Q and Qaumi Watan Party have already refused to vote for PTI.

It seems fairly obvious that Nawaz Sharif would rather have a PPP-led opposition in the House than that led by the PTI. Thus, he may count on allies like Maulana Fazlur Rehman, PML-F or Jatoi’s NPP to neutralise Imran Khan’s quest.

Imran Khan has certainly scored a major political victory by having Nawaz Sharif removed from the PM’s Office. But, that has not converted into any electoral advantage in the NA-120 by-poll. Now, he has taken a major risk by joining hands with the MQM in his bid to challenge Zardari. And by doing he seems to have let down his party workers in Karachi who’re opposed to the move to ally with the MQM. The only way he can justify this move is by clinching the seat of the Leader of the Opposition. However, that remains quite unlikely.