By Hu Weijia
Will US President-elect Donald Trump's gripes about globalization turn out to be an opportunity for China to strengthen cooperation with Southeast Asian countries such as Vietnam? Let's wait and see.
On Thursday, Vietnam Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc "warned of the risk of returning protectionism as Southeast Asian nations brace for potentially tighter trade controls in the US," Bloomberg reported. With Trump's vow to pull the US out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), it is understandable that Vietnam - a country that would be one of the largest beneficiaries of the free trade agreement - expresses its concerns about the negative impact of a failed TPP on Vietnam's export-oriented economy.
In the past few years, the US has imposed anti-dumping duties on goods imported from the Southeast Asian country such as warm-water shrimp. Now Vietnam's economy is likely to suffer a blow if the US, an important export destination, abandons the TPP and sets up new trade barriers.
This is the same situation other Southeast Asian countries face in their pursuit of globalization. As limited domestic markets can't always generate enough demand to sustain growth, Southeast Asian countries may move closer to China amid fears of returning protectionism from the US. Realistically, some nations, the Philippines included, have already started.
China's relations with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), which ran aground in July over the South China Sea issue, have been put back on track. It is not difficult to imagine that the China-ASEAN strategic partnership will pick up steam as China continues to boost its investment and economic presence in the region. Some people may hope the South China Sea issue can exert a wide-ranging influence on East Asia and hinder China's rise, but those people are going to be deeply disappointed by the result.
The two sides will inevitably face new challenges as they move closer to each other. China and most Southeast Asian countries have an export-oriented economy with a motivation to explore overseas consumer markets, which may lead to competition among countries. However, through its supply-side structural reforms China is working to turn itself into a consumption-oriented economy and become an export market for Southeast Asian countries.
How China will fill the potential void if Trump surrenders the US' role as a global free trade leader is unknown but what is certain is that China will work with Southeast Asian countries to cope with trade protectionism.
http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1022713.shtml
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