Rarely before has the region faced so many crises on so many fronts all at the same time, and rarely before has its troubles been so entangled with the rest of the world.
As efforts by world powers to deal with some of the region's most inextricable ills, like the rampant spread of terror threats and surging exodus of refugees, drag on into the new year, chances for real peace seem as slim as ever.
SCRAMBLE FOR POLITICAL SOLUTIONS
One encouraging sign, however, is the almost parallel tracks seeking political solutions to the wars in Syria, Yemen and Libya, which have killed hundreds of thousands and displaced millions more.
For the Libya track, the rival sides have signed in Morocco a final peace deal, thus stipulating the goal of a steady political transition and forming a national unity government.
But many skeptical observers believe that the negotiations lack strong consensus among the warring factions and are imposed from the outside. They also doubt the sustainability of such a new unity government, saying it is built in a rush and has excluded many tribes that supported late leader Muammar Gaddafi.
In Syria, a myriad of opposition entities are grouping themselves up at the urge of their backers, particularly the United States, some European nations, and the Gulf Arab monarchs.
After a two-day meeting in the Saudi capital of Riyadh, the rebels agreed that they are ready for UN-sponsored negotiations early next year with representatives from Damascus, although they still insist on the ouster of President Bashar al-Assad.
Things also seem to have started getting real on the ground. Under a cease-fire agreement with the government, rebels have begun to withdraw from the city of Homs, their last stronghold in central Syria, and cede its control to the authorities.
However, Mr. Assad, in a recent interview, said he would not negotiate with armed groups, accusing Saudi Arabia and the United States of wanting "terrorists" to join the ranks of negotiators. He believes that anyone in his country who holds a machine gun is a "terrorist."
In Yemen, a week-long and extendable truce under UN auspices has begun on Tuesday, yet fighting continued between the Shiite Houthi group and President Abd Rabbu Mansour Hadi's loyalists, which are back by a Saudi-led coalition.
Observers believe that Saudi Arabia is now being trying to extricate itself from an embarrassing and costly quagmire brought on by an air campaign and later ground operations against Houthi fighters in Yemen, as steadily dropping oil prices further drain its coffers.
At a meeting earlier this month, also in Riyadh, of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), there was already talk of rebuilding the ravaged southern neighbor.
The cease-fire and the recent UN-sponsored talks in Switzerland have come as no warring factions could emerge victorious after more than a year of civil war that has caused an alarming humanitarian crisis in one of the world's most impoverished countries, and a horrifying prospect that terrorist groups like al-Qaida and the Islamic State (IS) could harness the chaos and solidify their hold on Yemen as a launch pad for more terrorist attacks.
However, no light has been shed so far on whether the Houthis and those loyal to President Hadi have any possibility to figure out an acceptable and functional power-sharing plan, the key sticking point that has brought the nation into war in the first place and obfuscated many rounds of previous peace attempts and cease-fires.
COALITION OF UNWILLING
The discords among the regional and world powers which are running the Middle East's war on terror, particularly battles against the IS militants, are likely to linger in the coming year, and overshadow prospects to restore tranquility in the troubled region.
The western powers have entered the fight reluctantly. The rise of IS has also distracted their regime-change scheme in Syria, and spoiled the Obama administration's perceived strategic retreat from the Middle East.
For more than a year since the advent of a so-called international coalition, Washington, its European allies, as well as the wealthy Arab nations have been tiptoeing on the issue of sending in ground troops, knowing all too well the likely military and political prices of inevitable casualties for another Mideast adventure. They also worry that having boots on the ground would further instigate Arab nations' antagonism against the West.
With Russia joining the fight and Saudi's most recent move to form its own 34-member anti-IS group, three alliances are now in place and are poorly coordinated, which is only good news for the terrorists.
Talaat Musallam, former Egyptian army general and security expert, said international cooperation to combat the IS group is "so weak" and an international anti-terrorism center should be established to collect and share information and draft rules on ways to defeat terrorism legally.
Nevertheless, the Nov. 13 Paris terrorist attacks and the downing of a Russian passenger jet over Egypt's Sinai on Oct. 31, both claimed by the IS, appear to have dragged some world powers closer. French President Francois Hollande visited Moscow to seek anti-IS cooperation with the Kremlin. Russian President Vladimir Putin said his country has provided air cover and weapons to Free Syrian Army, a Western-backed leading opposition group.
POWERS' GAME
Like it or not, the powers now hurtled into the same trench fighting Islamic State would first put their own interests, geopolitical or others, in their calculations, which might further complicate the situation in the region.
The Western powers are now in a hurry to contain the spillover of the Syrian civil war that has lasted for almost five years. There is now strong consensus among major powers on a political solution to the long-running crisis.
The UN Security Council on Friday adopted a resolution, in which it calls for talks between the government and the oppositions to start next month, while the UN will help implement and monitor a nationwide cease-fire. However, the oppositions criticized the resolution for not requiring Assad's departure.
Over the fate of Assad, Washington has been a little bit inconsistent recently.
U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry surprised the world by saying earlier this week in Moscow that Washington and its partners are not seeking regime change in Syria, adding that Syrians will be making decisions for the future of the country. Yet only several days later U.S. President Barack Obama told his end-of-the-year news conference that Assad has lost legitimacy and has to go.
The incoherence has reflected the reticence of the Obama administration. On one hand, it wants to work with Russia in cracking down on the terrorists, while on the other it worries that letting Assad stay would benefit Iran and Russia, staunch supporters of Syria's sitting president, and further alienate Gulf Arab allies which have already been critical of the Iran nuclear deal.
Russia also has its own calculations. The Kremlin hopes to transform the IS fight into a chance to expand its influence in the Middle East, and to fix its ties with the West that were chilled over Ukraine, as well as to weaken the economic sanctions imposed by the United States and some European nations.
Also joining the fray is Turkey.
Its downing of a Russian war jet late November over Syrian airspace has plunged the Ankara-Moscow relationship to a historical low, further complicating the whole anti-IS game. Some observers say Turkey shot down the Russian fighter plane in retaliation for Russian bombing of Syria's Turkmen opposition fighters, which are backed by Ankara.
Turkey's recent move to dispatch more troops to northern Iraq, which angered the central government in Baghdad, is seen by some as aiming to consolidate its presence in anticipation of a post-IS Iraq. Ankara said the reinforcements were sent there to help train Iraqi Kurds fighting IS.
If there is any lesson from the past experience about peace-making in the Middle East, it is that one should never hope for miracles or silver bullets, but rather stay alarmed, pragmatic and patient.
As the Mideast is about to enter the new year, more nightmarish scenarios may well be lurching in the corner. The peace talks on Syria, Yemen and Libya could collapse, while the civil wars could escalate. Western powers could further stretch their legs in the region without offering serious and coherent strategies to curb and eliminate the menaces of hovering terrorism.
And peace between Israel and the Palestinians also appears to be as deadlocked as ever.
The history of the Middle East brooks no optimism, but pessimism is no excuse for inaction, especially at a time when the world faces a common scourge -- the likes of IS terrorists.
In Moscow on Tuesday for talks centered on Syria, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry sounded upbeat.
"I think the world benefits when powerful nations with a long history with each other have the ability to be able to find common ground," Kerry said at the start of a meeting with his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov.
Let us hope that the United States and Russia could lead by example, work for the common good of the human race, and help nudge the Middle East a little closer to peace.
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