Monday, November 16, 2015

News Analysis: Foreign policy to take center stage in U.S. elections after Paris massacre

By  Matthew Rusling


Last week's terror attacks on Paris have pushed U.S. foreign policy and the fight against terrorism to the forefront of U.S. elections, and candidates will have to show they are tough on terror in the lead up to the 2016 presidential race.

On Friday, terrorists launched multiple simultaneous attacks in several locations in Paris, killing 132 people and wounding 352 others, 99 of them critically. The Islamic State (IS), a violent terror group that has overtaken vast swaths of territory in Iraq and Syria, claimed responsibility for the attacks.
While the U.S. continues to conduct a bombing campaign against IS, critics have blasted the U.S. efforts as ineffective, and as more of a public relations campaign than a serious strategy to destroy IS. They said the U.S. attacks on IS targets are too few and far between, falling short of bombing campaigns unleashed from previous U.S. administration.
All this means that U.S. presidential candidates will need to show they are much more serious about the threat of international terrorism than the current administration is -- rightly or wrongly -- perceived to be.
"The Paris attacks will focus further attention on foreign policy issues and where candidates stand. There will be special attention on how candidates discuss countering Islamic State and dealing with the situation in Syria," Dan Mahaffee, an analyst with the Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress, told Xinhua.
"I think the GOP (Republican Party) candidates will definitely push to contrast their own, more muscular proposals for countering Islamic State and dealing with Syria compared to Obama and (former Secretary of State Hillary) Clinton," he said.
"I think we also saw some of it during the Benghazi hearing, but Obama (and Clinton's) policies have led to power vacuums in Syria, Libya, and other areas in the region that have allowed Islamic State to thrive," Mahaffee said.
The Paris massacre and recent IS threats to attack the U.S. soil are likely not only to draw voters to a candidate who seems resolute against the terror threat, but also toward one who is experienced.
That could spell trouble for candidates such as billionaire mogul Donald Trump and former surgeon Ben Carson, both of whom have been riding a wave of populist, anti-establishment sentiment. Trump and Carson are leading among the Republican candidates.
"I think that rather than being a boon for Trump, despite the tough guy image, there would be a trend towards more experienced candidates in terms of national security experience and experience in government," Mahaffee said.
"I also think a similar trend applies to Carson as well, though he does enjoy a consistent vein of support in the Christian evangelical community that may not be as concerned about terrorism issues as they go to the primaries," Mahaffee said.
"However, similar to Trump, his limited experience may give other voters pause as they look at terrorism issues and foreign policy," he added.
If the voters begin to pay greater attention to terrorism and foreign policy, the establishment candidates may benefit from their experience on these matters compared to outsiders like Carson and Trump, he noted.
Brookings Institution's senior fellow Darrell West told Xinhua that the Paris attacks will elevate foreign policy in the campaign, adding that how the candidates plan to deal with terrorism will be an important part of the discussion.
"(Democratic front-runner Hillary) Clinton will talk tougher on (IS) and the attacks will increase pressure for U.S. expansion in Syria," West said, referring to the ongoing U.S. bombing campaign against IS targets in Syria.
West believed that Trump will not benefit because he has talked about letting Russia handle IS.
Trump "will need to come up with a more credible policy," he said.

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