In the fast-changing geopolitics in its neighbourhood, India needs to watch Russia from the Pakistani prism and Pakistan from the Russian prism.
This should sum up the state of affairs in the newly emerging India-Pakistan-Russia triangle where the United States and China are the crucial X factors.
The latest example of Russia-Pakistan bonhomie is the news emanating from Islamabad that Russia has agreed to invest $2 billion in Pakistan to build an 1100-km-long energy pipeline from Karachi to Lahore to transport liquefied natural gas.
Pakistan Petroleum Minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi was quoted by Pakistani daily Express Tribune as saying thus on 18 April: "Pakistan and Russia have finalized an LNG pipeline deal in a recent meeting in Moscow and the two countries will sign a government-to-government basis deal next month."
More details are as follows. In return for the Russian investment, Russian companies will be awarded the contract to build the pipeline. Russia has offered to sell gas to Pakistan and will start its first LNG exports to Pakistan in 2016. The Russia-Pakistan contract will be awarded without any formal bidding process, which clearly means that it is a G2G or government-to-government understanding implying how closely Moscow and Islamabad are now working.
Pakistan is a potential lucrative market for gas exports for Russia which is the second largest natural gas exporter in the world.
Significantly, the move also means that Pakistan is willing to dare the United States-led Western community which has announced crippling sanctions on Russia for Moscow’s perceived sins of omission and commission over the Ukraine episode.
Naturally Pakistan cannot embark on this roadmap without the approval of China. This means that an interesting Russia-Pakistan-China synergy is emerging in the regional and global matrix. And all this is obviously at the expense of India.
Of late, a strategic shift is noticeable in Pakistan-Russia relations which this writer discussed in some detail here http://www.firstpost.com/world/will-the-pakistan-russia-military-exercise-make-new-delhi-moscow-ties-sour-2199754.html
The Pakistan-Russia bonhomie had started way back in the tenure of Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf, the Pakistani dictator who saw merit in courting Russia. During General Musharraf’s tenure, a Pakistan-Russia tango was considered a fool’s dream considering very strong and vibrant Russia-India ties.
But the geopolitical equations have changed drastically now. Pakistan-Russia proximity is not a diplomatic improbability anymore.
One major sign of Russia-Pakistan rapprochement came in 2012 when the then Pakistan Army chief General Kayani visited Russia. This was followed by a groundbreaking visit by Russian defence minister Sergei Shoigu to Pakistan on 20 November, 2014, the first visit by a Russian defence minister to Pakistan in 45 years.
Afghanistan was the central theme of Shoigu’sdiscussions withhis Pakistani counterpart Khawaja Muhammad Asif . Russia and Pakistan signed an unprecedented defence agreement after talks between Shoigu and Asif.
Russia is in search of newer friends and markets in the wake of the Western sanctions. Anyone ready to stymie the West and embrace Russia at this point of time is welcome for Moscow. Pakistan is one of the few countries in the world to do this.
That’s why and how it is the best time for Pakistan and Russia to script a never-before story of bonhomie which could not materialize all these past decades.
From the Russian point of view, India is a changed girlfriend who is having dalliances with the US-led Western community. The multi-billion dollar Indian defence contracts have dried up for the Russian companies. To add insult to injury, the US has already displaced Russia as the single biggest defence exporter.
Simultaneously, the diplomatic-strategic graph of Pakistan for Russia has risen sharply. The American/NATO troops have started withdrawing from Afghanistan and only a small inconsequential number of these troops will remain in Afghanistan by 2016 end.
This would mean a concurrent increase in Pakistan’s profile in Afghanistan and Russia would like to tap this source for tackling an Afghanistan in Pakistani grip the way China has done for years. From this perspective, Pakistan is far more important for Russia though Russia and Pakistan do not share border.
Salvaging ties with a trusted and tested strategic partner like Russia should be a high priority for Prime MinisterNarendra Modi.
Modi will have an opportunity to do this when he visits Russia in July this year to participate in the BRICS summit. Needless to say, Pakistan will be an elephant in the room when PM Modi holds talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
It will perhaps be the first-ever Indo-Russian summit when the two old friends will be talking under the lengthening shadow of Pakistan.
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