BY
The agreement between the United States and Turkey to arm moderate Syrian rebels in the fight against the Islamic State [ISIS] is a “disaster in the making”, according to experts who say that Washington and Ankara have different motives for doing so.
After several months of negotiations, the U.S. embassy in Ankara confirmed on Thursday that both countries would train and equip rebels, after they have been vetted using information from government databases and the intelligence of regional powers, at a base in the city of Kirsehir, south east of the capital.
Plans for three more training bases are being finalised in Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, a U.S. official told the Associated Press. Turkish foreign ministry under-secretary Feridun Sinirlioglu said the agreement was “an important step” in the country’s strategic partnership with Washington. However, there are divisions between Ankara and Washington over the target of the newly trained Syrian rebels with Turkey hoping the programme will strengthen them in the fight against president Syrian Bashar al-Assad.
However, Max Abrahms, professor of political science at Northwestern University and member at the Council of Foreign Relations, says the decision to arm rebels in the war-torn country is a “disaster in the making” as the Syrian opposition have ulterior motives to Washington’s.
“I understand the attraction to the notion of having Syrian rebels do the work, but in practice, their political interests are not perfectly aligned with our own,” he warns. “Most of the rebels are primarily motivated to topple Assad and that position is becoming more discordant with Washington’s position on Syria.”
“I think these rebels are going to act in ways that embarrass the United States,” he adds.
Another major risk that the agreement poses to the region is transporting a large amount of weaponry into an area occupied by a variety of radical Islamist groups, who would be attracted to any armaments funded by Washington, says Gonul Tol, executive director at the Center for Turkish Studies at the Middle East Institute.
“I think the Syrian rebels are not effective. That is the main problem. The bigger risk is the situation on the ground is really fluid. There are many radical groups in Syria and they are really difficult to identify,” Tol says in reference to the vetting process. “For Turkey, the main problem and major source of instability is the Assad regime. Turkey and the U.S. are not on the same page.”
The U.S. has already screened approximately 1,200 Syrian rebels with the aim of training them to fight against ISIS in northern Syria, Pentagon press secretary Rear Admiral John Kirby told a press conference Wednesday.
"We're working our way through the screening process now. Again, that we've initially identified this 1,200, that screening process for those 1,200 is still ongoing," he said. "We're going to be very deliberate about this. And it's going to be individual by individual. And so, that's going to take some time."
Last October, Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu rejected criticism that Ankara was not helping Syrian-Kurdish fighters defeat ISIS in the city of Kobane, situated on the Turkish border. He asserted in comments to the BBCthat Turkey would only become begin military operations against ISIS is the coalition also took action against the Syrian government, which is seen as the major destabilising force in the region, says Tol.
Therefore, Turkey has faced strong international disapproval for refraining from a more proactive role in the US-led coalition’s military campaign against ISIS, particularly because of the country’s proximity to the terror group’s self-proclaimed caliphate and the use of Turkey’s porous 900km-long border by foreign jihadists to join the group’s ranks.
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