Pakistan - Writing on the wall

The recent wave of imambargah bombings is consistent with Daesh’s modus operandi in Iraq during the days of the US invasion.

While the Pakistan army tackles  militants in North Waziristan and FATA, it seems that Pakistan’s troubles with terrorism are about to get a lot worse. After the Peshawar incident, banned terrorist outfits have been on the back foot in the wake of the counterterrorist response but if the recent attacks on imambargahs are any indication, we might have to face a very different kind of monster quite soon.

The Islamic State (IS)/Daesh, born from the power vacuum and sectarian undertones in Iraq, continues to garner the world’s attention through its ever barbaric antics and even though the Kurdish fighters have been able to control Daesh’s advance towards Kobani with the help of other allies, the organisation now controls vast territories in the Middle East and counts among its recruits members from various countries, including some European states as well. When the organisation’s chief, the self-proclaimed Caliph Abubakr al-Baghdadi, rose to fame last year, rightful concerns were raised about the possible implications of such an organisation towards Pakistan’s security landscape. At that point, Daesh was too busy in Syria and Iraq, and did not seem to have any plans to advance eastwards, so the concerns were brushed aside. More recently, no less than the country’s advisor on foreign affairs and national security, Sartaj Aziz, has publicly avowed that IS is not a ‘major’ threat for Pakistan. However, the situation has changed dramatically since last year and neglecting the IS threat any further will harm us in the long run.

First of all, warped understandings of Pakistan’s security situation have already cost us too much in terms of the hydra-headed militancy in Pakistan. We were too late to realise the threat posed by terrorist networks and we seem to have learnt nothing from our failure. IS now controls vast territories in the Middle East and it has already made its presence felt in Pakistan as well. Starting from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, a series of wall-chalkings were followed by pamphlets that made their way towards other parts of the country later on.

And, just last month, Daesh announced its organisational structure for the ‘Khorasan’ province, comprising of Pakistani and Afghan territories. Furthermore, Abubakr al-Baghdadi has received implicit and explicit allegiances from banned outfits in Pakistan such as Jundullah. Lastly, a former leader of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Hafiz Saeed Khan was given the responsibility of overseeing all Deash operations in the region, whereas a former Afghan Taliban leader, Mullah Abdul Rauf Khadim, was made his deputy.

In the wake of all this, our state of denial about Daesh’s presence is worrisome since it hampers our ability to foresee the extent of the problem and devise suitable measures. Contrary to the official stance taken, there are multiple reasons why Daesh is going to be a major issue for Pakistan in the coming days.

Firstly, Pakistan will prove to be fertile breeding ground for Deash’s ideology because of its violent sectarian history. While the adherents of the Salafi brand of Islam remain far and few in the Islamic Republic, we as a nation are nonetheless growing extremely intolerant towards minorities, religious or otherwise. This particular aspect of our national psyche, combined with our history of violent sectarianism, is going to play well into the hands of IS and allow them inroads into Pakistani society. There are multiple ways the Sunni-Shia divide can be exploited by IS and, as a matter of fact, the recent wave of imambargah bombings is consistent with Daesh’s modus operandi in Iraq during the days of the US invasion.

Secondly, the local militancy movement is going to be looking for a much stronger umbrella organisation after being forced to lay low due to the counterinsurgency operation by the Pakistan army. Not only can Deash offer ideological harmony, it also has access to state-of-the-art weaponry and training, which the militants here will be attracted towards. Furthermore, finding sources of funding is not going to be an issue for all those that come under Daesh’s command since the organisation’s pockets run deeper than any other similar group.

That being said, Daesh’s inroads towards Pakistan and Afghanistan are not going to be a walk in the park. The army’s ongoing operation has proved to be a bane for the terrorist organisations, and it will effectively curb any new players from making forays into the region. However, apart from that, the existent Taliban and al Qaeda affiliates will not be too happy to jump onto the IS bandwagon from the very start. In fact, Deash might have to engage in fierce turf wars to claim any sort of command over South Asian territories, which in turn could prove to be a crucial blow to its avowed mandate; internecine conflict, after all, has been the cause of many an empire’s decline. However, such caveats should not be taken as ironclad guarantees that will protect us in the days to come. Truth be told, post Peshawar Pakistan is already looking a lot like its pre Peshawar self and, in such a situation, we can continue to ignore the writing on the wall only at our own peril.