Friday, November 7, 2014

China may see hard-line US post-midterm

The Republicans have come out the big winners from the US midterm election on Tuesday. The party now has a majority in the Senate, meaning it has control over both houses of Congress. As a result, US President Barack Obama will become a lame duck.
It is Obama who will have to swallow the bitterest pill. The election can be seen as a referendum on his political achievements, one in which most voted "no." He will feel more restrained in the last two years of his tenure.
The Americans have elected a Congress that counters the president. The US, even though a master of Western-style democracy, cannot manage the situation well. In the next two years, perhaps the US will not make any major decisions. Washington will be the stage for a showdown between the president and Congress.
As for policies on China, Congress, which has often bashed China, may take an even tougher line in the future. Moreover, it may turn its dissatisfaction with the president into provoking China.
But the Chinese people have become familiar with the American-style political farce. Changes in Sino-US relations will not be the biggest concern among all the other outcomes of the midterm elections.
Besides Obama, it could be Hillary Clinton who worries most about the election results. US mainstream media regards her as the most likely Democratic candidate in the next presidential elections. However, since the Obama-led Democrats were defeated in the midterm election, she may have to bear the consequences.
Past elections show that when the incumbent does not seek another term, the party that wins the midterms is likely to win the presidential elections.
When the US apparently needs political determination to push forward domestic reforms, US systems continue to waste the country's political resources on partisan struggles. Is it something the US should be proud or shameful of? Even the Americans are debating this.
Across the Pacific, China has been undergoing extensive reforms. The two countries have set a sharp contrast. In both countries, there are firm supporters for their countries as well as those who envy the systems of the other. Only time will tell the answer.
Major changes will not occur in Washington any time soon. This is perhaps an opportunity for countries that have the ability to change. China should be one of them. More dissatisfaction with a changing China may result in more rivalry, but the current system in the US will not encourage a radical change in its China policies.
Obama's pivot to Asia strategy has brought China many troubles. But generally, Obama's foreign policies can be seen as moderate. Sino-US relations may not degrade so much that they disintegrate, but a taste of bitterness will always linger.

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