Pakistan: Militants regrouping

Word of infighting amongst terrorist factions in the tribal Agencies has consistently emerged since before the launch of Operation Zarb-e-Azb and the end of negotiations with the terrorists. Sadly it has been buried under the constant barrage of political drama unfolding in Islamabad. Lately the military has been trying to bring the focus back on the war it is fighting in North Waziristan Agency (NWA). On Wednesday, September 3rd, Inter Services Public Relations (ISPR) issued a statement saying that 910 terrorists have been killed in the operation while 82 soldiers have laid down their lives. According to ISPR, NWA has been largely cleared of militants but the relatively low tally of militant casualties raises questions about how successful the operation has been in disabling the terrorists’ infrastructure as it was supposed to. While their command and control has reportedly been disrupted, news of a faction of the tribal areas terrorists led by former shura (council) member Qasim Khorasani has emerged, claiming a break with the Fazlullah-led Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). The new group claims to bring together 70 percent of the fighters from militant groups in the tribal areas and includes some notorious names like former TTP Mohmand Agency commander Khaled Omar Khorasani and former shura member Shakeel Haqqani. A war of words is developing between the two groups. Former TTP spokesperson Eshanullah Ehsan has switched allegiance while current spokesperson Shahidullah Shahid issued a statement saying the new group had been disavowed by the TTP. Both groups claim loyalty to Afghan Taliban commander Mullah Omar, who is now a unifying patriarchal figure within the terrorist ranks.

Reports say that after vacating NWA prior to the assault, many terrorists have moved to other Agencies, with the most common opinion pointing to them relocating to Kurram Agency, which was a vital launch pad for the Afghan Mujahideen during the Afghan-Soviet war. The military has not confirmed such reports, but with many militants unaccounted for, the worry is that the terrorists are regrouping and waiting for NATO to leave Afghanistan later this year after which they can launch more intensive attacks from across the border.

News of the war is hence fraught with concern. The split and the claims to legitimacy of both groups point to them weakening each other, and also indicate a chink in their armour that could be exploited. As has been seen, after entrenching in the tribal areas, the militants created an organisational hierarchy that encompasses elements of tribal culture, including tribal ideas of legitimacy, reflected in Ehsan’s claim that the families of Baitullah and Hakeemullah Mehsud are with his new group. Attacking the consensus among militants and their conceptual idea of legitimacy is a new aspect in the war against them, but one that despite having disabled their military structure, the armed forces have yet to exploit. Given their tactics, as long as they have the will to fight, the threat remains.