Pakistan: Floods and tsunamis

With typical bureaucratic inefficiency, the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) is excellent at preparing reports and then taking no action on the recommendations outlined in them. In 2010 the NDMA was caught completely unprepared by floods that directly affected 20 million people, causing 2,000 casualties and billions in losses of property and livestock. There were recurring floods in 2011 and 2012 that caused similar devastation although loss of life was minimised because many people had not been resettled in their original homes after the previous year’s flooding. Almost 80,000 families displaced by flooding in 2010 are still awaiting their relief cheques four years later. What is certain is that preparedness in the wake of the consecutive floods from 2010 to 2012 leaves a great deal to be desired. The NDMA Chairman, Major General (retired) Muhammad Saeed Aleem, reportedly said in July this year that late monsoon rains and melting snow could lead to floods in up to 50 districts. However, no further action was reported after the warning was issued. It is also remarkable that meteorological and atmospheric reports were completely ignored that predicted sustained rainy years were inevitable after droughts in the previous decade. Compared to 2010, this year’s floods could have been predicted and managed. Reports say that flooding this year has killed 231 people in Punjab and 136 in Azad Kashmir, where the prime minister made an emergency visit on Monday and promised aid for flood victims. Over 400,000 people have been displaced according to Water and Power Minister Khawaja Asif, while over 325,000 acres of agricultural land has been damaged. With more flood waters expected, district authorities said they may have to breach Atharan Hazaria Dyke so as not to endanger Trimmu Barrage. The only sliver of hope the floods brought are the reciprocal gestures of aid made by India and Pakistan that show yet again that these prisoners of history are also prisoners of geography, and that managing the Indus basin rivers will require cooperation, and swiftly.

The irony is that floods have been the lifeblood of Indus valley agriculture for 5,000 years and have historically been welcomed despite the dislocation they bring because river silt brought to the surface by flooding is extremely fertile. In effect, floods provide a lease of life to Pakistan’s agricultural backbone, but instead of taking advantage of the potential they represent, over 67 years successive governments have failed to develop the control mechanisms necessary to prevent devastation and utilise or store flood waters for constructive purposes. Flood control mechanisms in different parts of the world are highly sophisticated, and include measures that could have been implemented easily since 2010, such as construction of cemented flood control channels to divert water as it approaches or inundates urban areas, levees and bunds in areas adjacent to river banks and flood barriers that deploy to protect agricultural land or urban communities when flood waters are detected.

In 1999 engineers patented a transportable and reusable flood barrier that uses the water’s weight against itself and is used today to protect real estate, cities and public utilities. Did the NDMA even make simple arrangements for hydrosacks or other emergency measures to delay flood waters while rescue work continues, or distribute them after issuing its warning? Based on NDMA reports, most of its recommendations are concerned with organisational efficiency and generating funds rather than practical measures that would actually assist in disasters. The NDMA was formed in 2007 after the 2005 Kashmir earthquake. That it is still unable to develop the organisational hierarchy and capacity to react swiftly, coordinate in disaster or contain the impact of disasters begs the question of what it has been doing for the last seven years. Planning, it seems, only extends to theoretical organisational capacity and not actual relief activities. The response to the floods gives us a picture of how mismanagement reinforces the perception that the political class is moribund and self-obsessed. The soap opera playing out in Islamabad is so far removed from the problems of ordinary people that their anger towards the federal government is perfectly understandable. The floods it seems are a metaphor for a tide of political anger sweeping over the country.