Pakistan: A not so august march

Aoun Sahi

Political activities have reached their peak in the capital after Imran Khan’s announcement that his party would hold its planned ‘long march’ protest in Islamabad on August 14 at any cost and would not settle for anything less than the resignation of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and re-election in the country. Alongside, Tahirul Qadri has also announced to lead a ‘revolution march’ towards Islamabad.

So far, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and Qadri’s party Pakistan Awami Tehreek (PAT) have not joined hands for combined efforts to challenge the government. If at some stage this happens, it could be consequential in many ways for the government as well as for democracy in this country.

The brewing political crisis has created a panic-like situation among the ranks of the party in power; the prime minister has formally sought help from the political leadership of country to avert it. Former president and co-chairman of PPP Asif Ali Zardari is actively trying to find a political solution. He is said to have talked to Imran Khan, Shujaat Hussain and Pervaiz Elahi and Qadri during the last few days. Syed Khurshid Shah, the opposition leader in the National Assembly, has also been playing an active role in bringing both Imran Khan and Nawaz Sharif to a middle ground. PML-N secretary information and senator Mushahidullah Khan tells TNS that the prime minister’s resignation is out of question. “We have approached Imran Khan more than once for dialogue but he does not want to talk. How can a leader of a political party preclude the possibility of dialogue? Recounting is not the jurisdiction of government; the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) and courts are the right forum to heed such demands.”

The government is going to deal with Tahirul Qadri in a tough manner. He says his party is serious to reform the electoral system of the country. “Tahirul Qadri is a non-political entity and would soon leave country again. He comes only to create chaos.” The PML-N has been trying his best to bring the PTI to the dialogue table. The 33-member electoral reforms committee of parliament has already met once and elected Ishaq Dar as its head.

The PPP leaders think the PML-N needs to approach the situation in a sober way. “Shahbaz Sharif as the chief minister of the largest province used to lead protest marches against load-shedding and the federal government during our last tenure. Nawaz Sharif went to the Supreme Court against our government [Memo Case]. But we stuck to the policy of dialogue. The PML-N did not use the forum of parliament in the past to resolve issues; ironically it is now asking the PTI to come to the parliament,” says Qamar Zaman Kaira, PPP’s secretary information.

Kaira says his party would not allow anybody to harm democracy. “There is only one way to reform the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) and that is constitutional reforms. I do not know where would Imran Khan bring in a new ECP in his new Pakistan? I think the PTI has assumed that after the government falls, a new ECP would emerge automatically.”

He says the long-march would be a good experience for Imran Khan and PTI. “He would understand what state’s pressure or oppression means; it would be a good political training for the PTI workers.” Kaira concludes that both parties will have to come to a middle path.”

PM Nawaz Sharif has conducted meetings with more political leaders during the last few days than he did during the last six months. The political situation has also helped bring minor political parties like Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) to the centrestage. JI chief Sirajul Haq has been trying to mediate between Nawaz Sharif and Imran Khan. Khan who almost ignored his long-time friend and PML-N stalwart Chaudhry Nisar has discussed the long march in details with Haq who has met twice with the PM and Imran Khan during the last couple of days.

It really is a test of nerves. Background meetings with PTI leadership reveal that it has been trying to exert more pressure to achieve maximum benefit at the negotiating table. The PTI is aware that re-election under the present ECP and system would not help its cause. The party knows it is not in a position to pursue its agenda of radical electoral reforms, a new constitution for ECP and mechanism for a caretaker setup in the parliament; so, it has been exerting pressure outside the parliament. The party is looking for a strong commitment through ‘reliable guarantors’ to get its demands accepted and get them passed from parliament.

The PTI leadership may reach an agreement with the government but would go for its August 14 long march as planned. Imran Khan would not accept anything short of delivering his ‘victory speech’.

Political analysts think the situation has brought the military establishment on the driving seat again. It would make the final decision about the fate of this system and democracy in Pakistan. In his column for The News on August 5, Ayaz Amir wrote that no change has ever occurred in Pakistan except through the power of the sword — the open or hidden intervention of the army. “Why should it be different this time? Imran Khan and Tahirul Qadri are playing no one’s game. The script in front of them is their own. But the arena or theatre in which they are playing their parts is controlled not by them. Over it fall the long shadows cast by the army’s bayonets. Whether we like it or not, such is the nature of the Pakistani state, such are the contours of Pakistani politics.”

PML-N leadership which has been very critical of role of establishment in politics, especially in the Musharraf case, is not issuing any more provocative statements. The last visit of PM to the General Headquarters on July 17 is said to have resulted in “bringing both sides closer”.

How would the establishment react to Imran Khan’s long march? The million dollar question would remain unanswered till August 14. Khan has already conveyed a strong message to the military establishment that he felt betrayed by them in the May 2013 elections.