Pakistan: An Impossible Peace

Millions of Afghan civilians have for decades taken refuge in Pakistan to escape war, and now the fighting in North Waziristan has created a movement of Pakistani families into Afghanistan. Most of the exodus is not voluntary; the Taliban have been announcing that people should leave or join them. If they don’t, they will face punishment and be seen as supporting the Pakistani forces that increase ground and air operations. Jabar Nahimi, governor of eastern Afghanistan's Khost province where most of the migrants are headed has said that Afghanistan has provided aid for 100 of these families and the rest will be helped soon, alongside being provided with polio vaccines. North Waziristan has had the most polio cases in Pakistan.

The Taliban fighting against the state is a mutual treat for Pakistan and Afghanistan but relations between the two are strained and full of suspicion. Karzai has accused the ISI of disrupting the presidential election. Afghan Presidential candidate Abdullah Abdullah has made some signs of future cooperation with Pakistan after initial accusations that the ISI was behind his assassination attempt. On a diplomatic note, Islamabad needs to make sure that it extends a hand of peace and cooperation to Afghanistan like it has to India. Abdullah placed first in the initial round of the latest election and seems to be playing it smart with all the power players. He said that he would sign an agreement with the United States to maintain nearly 10,000 troops in Afghanistan after the withdrawal of most combat forces this year. Karzai has refused to sign the agreement, saying it may allow US troops to enter Afghan homes.

It is often argued that if Pakistan could guarantee the sovereignty of the autonomous regions, peace could be possible. But this would require that the Pakistan autonomous regions control the Islamic terrorists, including themselves, like the rennet bid by the tribal Jirga to expel foreign fighters and talk to the Taliban Shura. Additionally, this would mean that the Taliban would have some sort of political representation and voice. This peace is dependent on a lot of “Ifs” and seems unlikely. In the current political environment of violence and revenge, the tribal areas can’t be ensured their autonomy at all. It may be too late for demands of autonomy and promises of cease fire. Damage control and containment however, is the responsibility of the Sharif government and the military; they have to make sure that the violence does not further spread from North Wazirstan, like it did to Karachi. Sadly, the army and government have been at loggerheads and their face-off, including the Musharraff case, is a distraction from more pressing national issues.