Pakistan: A disaster in waiting

Zahid Hussain

IT seems like déjà vu. The empire has struck back, orchestrating a media campaign and public rallies in its support. With familiar Islamist faces carrying larger-than-life portraits of the army and ISI chiefs, the spectacle is ominous. Such a public display of support for the head of the spy agency is rare, if not unprecedented.

Less than seven years after the return of the democratic order, the military is back in the arena, upping its public political profile. It is a return to the old cloak and dagger game between the civil and military authorities. There may not be a winner in this bitter power struggle, but the collision has heightened political uncertainty in the country.

The initial silence of the government over the relentless slander campaign against the ISI and its chief has for sure triggered the military’s backlash. But the tension between the PML-N government and the generals has been building up for quite some time.

In fact, it was a story foretold when Nawaz Sharif returned to the helm for the third time last year. It is partly the case of past baggage that refuses to go away, keeping alive the distrust of each other. But there are some other key policy differences that have escalated the tensions.

For several days the government watched from the fringes as the ISI bashing on Geo triggered a media civil war that sharply polarised the country’s political landscape. The damage control came a bit too late. It also fuelled widespread perception that the government had deliberately allowed the situation to flare up.

The statements by some ministers lent further credence to the allegation that the government was a party to the conflict. The military too lost all rationality by feeding its own narrative into the media war, branding its critics anti-state. It also went too far in publicly calling for the closure of Geo and reportedly stopping its broadcast in cantonment areas. The proxy war through the media created a very messy situation.

Things seem to have cooled down a bit, but the events of the last two weeks have changed the country’s political atmosphere. All sides seem to have been badly bruised in the ugly fracas. Of course the war of channels has exposed the charade of the free media. But neither the government nor the country’s powerful military establishment has come out unscathed in this free-for-all.

In fact, the government seems to have badly miscalculated its prowess. The attempt to manipulate the situation and to bring the military under pressure appears to have boomeranged, making the government perhaps the biggest loser in the whole episode. The crisis has led to a realignment of political forces.

It is not just the old jihadi ‘assets’ like Jamaatud Dawa that have come out to defend their old patrons, but many mainstream political parties have also jumped on to the pro-military bandwagon. In an unprecedented move the Sindh Assembly passed a unanimous resolution expressing solidarity with the security agencies. Not surprisingly, the government now finds itself in a tight corner and is forced to stand behind the military, at least on the Geo issue.

Yet, it seems extremely difficult for the two sides to mend fences with the widening gap between them on some key policy issues. The treason trial of retired Gen Musharraf and the government’s soft peddling on militancy remain the main sources of tension. What is most worrisome for the military leadership is mounting discontent within the ranks, particularly among the junior officers. It was this pressure that forced the new army leadership to provide protection to the former army chief and avoid his appearances before the special tribunal for several months. Musharraf finally appeared after a reported deal that he would be allowed to leave the country after the indictment. But that did not happen. Mr Sharif would not let his tormentor out.

But the most sensitive issue souring relations is the government’s ambivalence over the military’s war against militancy. The statements by senior ministers apparently sympathetic to the Taliban enrage the young officers in the battlefield. There is growing anger, not just because of the government’s reluctance to own the war, but due to its failure to attend the funerals of soldiers and officers killed in battle.

GHQ is reportedly inundated with letters from officers on the front line expressing outrage over the government’s apathetic attitude. Many more soldiers and officers are killed in the battlefield as the Sharif government is engaged in so-called peace dialogue. It is not that the military and the ISI have not been castigated for their policies and high-handedness before. But the kind of slander campaign run by a section of the media has diverted attention away from genuine criticism on the working of the security and intelligence agencies. Being in a war makes the officers more sensitive to critical remarks about their institution.

Indeed, civil and military relations are not easy to manage in Pakistan given its chequered political history. But democracy cannot work without the two being on the same page on critical national issues. The responsibility lies with both the institutions. Only better governance and greater ability for policy direction on part of the elected government and not a confrontationist approach could establish civilian supremacy.

But the twice-ousted prime minister seems to have learnt no lesson from his own experience. It is a disaster in waiting.