A series of high level discussions point to the imminent demise of the peace process as it stands, and the reorganisation of negotiations between the government and the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) directly. Major (retd) Amir from the government negotiating committee has said he believes the government should negotiate directly with the TTP, perhaps because from the start it was unclear what his mandate was and what a negotiated settlement would look like. Irfan Siddiqui, another government negotiator, believes the current mechanism still might work. This may be a case of enjoying his brief fame a little too much. The upbeat statements by Mr Siddiqui that the negotiations are making ‘satisfactory’ progress are in stark contrast to the ground reality, which shows increasing amounts of civilian blood being spilt while ‘talks’ continue. How satisfactory the deaths of 110 people in a month are is a question for the TTP, who are attacking with impunity again, despite announcing a ceasefire. Yesterday a roadside bomb killed six soldiers in Kurram Agency. The attack was claimed by Ansar-ul-Mujahideen, a familiar name from the TTP roster of militant groups. This past December the same Ansar-ul-Mujahideen attacked a checkpost in Mir Ali killing five soldiers, reportedly in revenge for the killing of TTP leader Hakeemullah Mehsud in November last year. The group’s spokesperson told news agencies that Wednesday’s attack was in revenge for ‘drone victims’ and claimed that, like Ahrar-ul-Hind, they aren’t part of the Pakistani Taliban and are not bound by the ceasefire. Is this some kind of bad joke, or do the TTP genuinely believe the Pakistani people can’t see thorugh this sham?
It appears now that the TTP have cut loose a number of their more vicious subordinates to act as they please while the core of the TTP shura claims protection under the ceasefire. All of these ‘splinter’ groups have parted ways with the TTP in the last month, leading to two lines of speculation. If it is not in control of them, then the TTP are irrelevant and can be treated like common criminals. If they are aware and in control of these groups, or have cut them loose to create havoc while they continue to play at talking, then the TTP can’t be trusted and are looking to bend the government to their will through sheer bloodlust and butchery. The government appears keen that the heartland of Punjab remain untouched by violence. However, as the attack in Islamabad shows, no part of the country is safe and if the government are naive enough to believe that the TTP or their affiliates will show them mercy when the time comes, they will be rudely disabused of the notion. The TTP is clearly trying to drive a wedge between the government and the military, since the latter won’t strike until the former gives them the go ahead to do so. The TTP are also buying time and digging in while creating confusion and fear; eventually, when they feel secure enough in their tribal area hideouts, they will range out across the country with the benefit of rest and recuperation behind them. Will government officials then flee the country, because past events show that politicians and their families are high on the list of TTP targets? If the government possesses knowledge that contradicts public sentiments, it should share it with the public, who have paid in blood for the right to know what their representatives are basing their decisions on. More importantly, the government should be aware of two facts: the first is that militants use fear to appear more powerful than they are, operating out of the shadows, striking defenceless civilians; remove the smokescreen and they are a cowering bunch of cowardss, as their earlier pleas for mercy showed. The second is that while the Pakistani people may not love war, war is already here and the terrorists are not going to stop until they achieve their objectives. We may not care for war, but the Pakistani people have proved they have the determination to fight; the government must now show the same.
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