Pakistan: Ceasefire?

The TTP’s offer of a one-month ceasefire puts the government in a difficult position. It comes after the militant group was given a chance to negotiate but spurned it by refusing to halt attacks while talks were ongoing. The military has started pounding TTP hideouts from the air and backed it up with ground forces and so the government may see the call of a ceasefire as a sign that the military option is working. The TTP appears to be under pressure as only a couple of days back its spokesman had rejected a unilateral ceasefire. The group does have a history of using negotiations as an opportunity to regroup and then resume its attacks. This may give pause to the government as it formulates its response to the offer, hopefully not unexpected as there are reports that the interior minister was conducting secret diplomacy. The leadership also needs to be aware that in a month or so the weather in the tribal areas will be more conducive to fighting the TTP on the ground so a pause right now may not be the worst idea. Thus preparations for military action must continue even if the talks are held on the sidelines. Before responding in the affirmative, though, a clarification is needed from the TTP about what it means by a ceasefire. Is it promising only to stop fighting military troops in the tribal areas in return for being left alone or will it also spare the rest of the country from bombings? The negotiating committees chosen by both the TTP and the government are still intact so they can be utilised to hash out the details.

If the offer is accepted, the government needs to make it clear that a single attack will be seen as a breach of the ceasefire. Just a few hours before the ceasefire statement was made, polio workers in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa were attacked by militants. Such unprovoked, cowardly killings, cannot be tolerated.Nawaz Sharif may also want to consider holding a debate in the National Assembly to find out what the people’s representatives think. The All-Parties Conference may have settled on the negotiations option but the TTP’s conduct since then may give the political parties some pause before reiterating support for the ceasefire. It also needs to be made clear to the TTP that a ceasefire does not mean a withdrawal of troops from the tribal areas. There is too much cause to doubt the TTP’s intentions for us to take it at its word. Input from the military will be crucial too. The army chief must have told the civilian leadership just how confident it is of victory over the TTP. The ultimate aim must be neutering the militants’ ability to attack at will. The ceasefire offer will be a test of how the government thinks that can best be achieved.