Tensions between Japan and its neighbors over disputed islands, Japanese politicians' visits to the Yasukuni Shrine and some historical issues have left Japan isolated in Northeast Asia.
The Abe administration has realized this fact and tried to find alliances in order to get rid of the current dilemma. One of its efforts is to defuse the tension with Russia.
For Abe, historical issues and his visit to the Yasukuni Shrine are political cards to play against Japan's neighbors. The purpose of his visit was to show his power, consolidate the cohesion of the Japanese right, and guarantee more domestic support. His visit to the shrine can be seen as a political tactic.
However, Abe is also aware that territorial disputes are the real source of trouble for him, which could easily put him in a dilemma.
If he compromises over territorial issues, his cabinet may collapse and the ruling Liberal Democratic Party also risks losing power. But if he sticks to his stance over territorial disputes, Japan's neighbors will be further incensed and the country will face stronger resistance.
After Abe took office, he strengthened and promoted the strategy of confronting with China over the Diaoyu Islands.
This strategy has been promoted and upgraded gradually as Japan's conflicts with China increase. It seems that China is positioned to be Japan's long-term opponent.
As to the dispute with South Korea over the Dokdo islets, the Abe administration is well aware of South Korea's insistence and has realized the fact that they will not be able to take back the islets from the Koreans.
In spite of this, Tokyo continues to protest and provoke over the islets issue, and use it as a diplomatic strategy against South Korea from time to time.
However, the Abe administration has never got tough with Russia over the Southern Kuriles issue. There are several factors, including historical reasons, points of confrontation and Abe's diplomatic strategies.
In history, Japan had been disadvantaged in the battles with Russia, except Russo-Japanese War (1904-05). It suffered intensely from Russia's strength and expansionism, even during the Russo-Japanese War when Japan had more casualties despite its decisive victory.
In the final weeks of WWII, the Soviet Union declared war on Japan and quickly defeated Japanese forces, which had a decisive impact on Japan's decision to surrender.
The Abe administration is clear about Russian toughness and has been cautious in its Russia policy.
Russia remains powerful despite the collapse of the Soviet Union, and there have been talks about Russia's rejuvenation.
Every time when Japan shows a tough attitude, Russia gives a quick response, as shown by Russian leader's inspection of the Southern Kuriles or sending nuclear-capable bombers to fly near Japan. Though backed by Washington, Japan is reluctant to be tough with Russia and it knows even the US will not easily provoke Russia.
Abe also understands that there are no benefits for Japan getting tough with Russia over territorial disputes.
To avoid more losses, Japan chooses to soften Russia's stance by improving investments, discussing security issues, and talking up the "Chinese threat."
The Kremlin is very sophisticated, and plays the territorial issue as a political card too. Russia has made a counter-offer by using the territorial issue as a bait, in order to obtain more funds and technology from Japan for developing Siberia and the Far East region.
Russia's actual control of the islands has strengthened the country's confidence, and as such, it is unlikely to fall victim to Japan's calculations.
Based on these considerations, Japan and Russia achieved a consensus to meet and negotiate over island disputes.
The atmosphere of the meeting between Abe and Vladimir Putin in Sochi earlier this month seemed very friendly. But the question is: What could Abe really get from Russia?
Russia is well aware of Japan's tactics and the negative results if Russia makes any compromise. Despite offering a friendly reception, Putin will not make any compromise over Russia's territorial and sovereignty interests.
Consequently, Japan's dreams to reclaim the disputed islands of Russia can hardly come true. We need more time and patience to see the final result of the disputes.
Thursday, February 27, 2014
Russia won’t really buy Abe’s islet tactics
Tensions between Japan and its neighbors over disputed islands, Japanese politicians' visits to the Yasukuni Shrine and some historical issues have left Japan isolated in Northeast Asia.
The Abe administration has realized this fact and tried to find alliances in order to get rid of the current dilemma. One of its efforts is to defuse the tension with Russia.
For Abe, historical issues and his visit to the Yasukuni Shrine are political cards to play against Japan's neighbors. The purpose of his visit was to show his power, consolidate the cohesion of the Japanese right, and guarantee more domestic support. His visit to the shrine can be seen as a political tactic.
However, Abe is also aware that territorial disputes are the real source of trouble for him, which could easily put him in a dilemma.
If he compromises over territorial issues, his cabinet may collapse and the ruling Liberal Democratic Party also risks losing power. But if he sticks to his stance over territorial disputes, Japan's neighbors will be further incensed and the country will face stronger resistance.
After Abe took office, he strengthened and promoted the strategy of confronting with China over the Diaoyu Islands.
This strategy has been promoted and upgraded gradually as Japan's conflicts with China increase. It seems that China is positioned to be Japan's long-term opponent.
As to the dispute with South Korea over the Dokdo islets, the Abe administration is well aware of South Korea's insistence and has realized the fact that they will not be able to take back the islets from the Koreans.
In spite of this, Tokyo continues to protest and provoke over the islets issue, and use it as a diplomatic strategy against South Korea from time to time.
However, the Abe administration has never got tough with Russia over the Southern Kuriles issue. There are several factors, including historical reasons, points of confrontation and Abe's diplomatic strategies.
In history, Japan had been disadvantaged in the battles with Russia, except Russo-Japanese War (1904-05). It suffered intensely from Russia's strength and expansionism, even during the Russo-Japanese War when Japan had more casualties despite its decisive victory.
In the final weeks of WWII, the Soviet Union declared war on Japan and quickly defeated Japanese forces, which had a decisive impact on Japan's decision to surrender.
The Abe administration is clear about Russian toughness and has been cautious in its Russia policy.
Russia remains powerful despite the collapse of the Soviet Union, and there have been talks about Russia's rejuvenation.
Every time when Japan shows a tough attitude, Russia gives a quick response, as shown by Russian leader's inspection of the Southern Kuriles or sending nuclear-capable bombers to fly near Japan. Though backed by Washington, Japan is reluctant to be tough with Russia and it knows even the US will not easily provoke Russia.
Abe also understands that there are no benefits for Japan getting tough with Russia over territorial disputes.
To avoid more losses, Japan chooses to soften Russia's stance by improving investments, discussing security issues, and talking up the "Chinese threat."
The Kremlin is very sophisticated, and plays the territorial issue as a political card too. Russia has made a counter-offer by using the territorial issue as a bait, in order to obtain more funds and technology from Japan for developing Siberia and the Far East region.
Russia's actual control of the islands has strengthened the country's confidence, and as such, it is unlikely to fall victim to Japan's calculations.
Based on these considerations, Japan and Russia achieved a consensus to meet and negotiate over island disputes.
The atmosphere of the meeting between Abe and Vladimir Putin in Sochi earlier this month seemed very friendly. But the question is: What could Abe really get from Russia?
Russia is well aware of Japan's tactics and the negative results if Russia makes any compromise. Despite offering a friendly reception, Putin will not make any compromise over Russia's territorial and sovereignty interests.
Consequently, Japan's dreams to reclaim the disputed islands of Russia can hardly come true. We need more time and patience to see the final result of the disputes.
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