Pakistan: The Saudi bear hug

BY AZIZ-UD-DIN AHMAD

Islamabad must avoid repeating mistakes of the past

There is a sudden resurgence in Saudi friendliness for Pakistan. Never in the past had so many Saudi dignitaries descended on Pakistan within such a short period. There are reasons behind the activity.

It is widely understood that the Saudis prefer the PMLN government to the previous PPP administration. From the narrow sectarian perspective that characterises the Kingdom, the one is Sunni-led and therefore friendly, while the other was a Shia-led and hence hostile. Despite the sectarian differences which are used to define relations with countries and parties, Ryadh had not gone beyond maintaining normal relations during the initial months of Nawaz Sharif’s take over. The change has more recent causes.

It all started with Iran, seen by Saudi as the source of all evil in the region, when it struck a historic nuclear deal with the US and five European powers in November 2013. The agreement was a sequel to the first ever telephonic contact between the presidents of US and Iran. The deal opened the way for rolling back the crippling sanctions on Iran and improvement of its ties with the west. The Saudi government considered this a stab in the back by the US, the kingdom’s patron for five decades. The royalty, which had so far relied on the US support wile confronting Iran and acting as a regional hegemon, thought it was time to reshape its security doctrine.

The Saudi government was already unhappy with the outcome of the Iraq war. It was simply shocking for it to see the so far persecuted Shia community holding sway over Iraqi politics and electing a government having friendly ties with Iran. The idea that this could encourage the suppressed Shia community in the kingdom itself to put up demands for lifting curbs on their religious practices was enough to send shivers down the administration’s spine. What added to the worries was the sudden realisation that the Shia in Saudi Arabia constitute majority in the kingdom’s oil rich region as they do in neighbouring Bahrain .

Prince Alwaleed bin Talal, the Saudi financier and a member of the House of Saud, told the Wall Street Journal: “Nawaz Sharif, specifically, is very much Saudi Arabia’s man in Pakistan.”

As the Saudis were recovering from the shock came the so called Arab spring leading to the overthrow of some of the totalitarian regimes. In Egypt Hosni Mubarak’s dictatorial rule had suited the Saudis. Like them Mubarak too was opposed to democracy and reforms. His overthrow came as an unexpected shock. The Saudi royalty cursed the US which despite close relations with Mobarak had finally accepted the regime change instead of working with Riyadh to overthrow it.

As Gen el Sissi overthrew the Morsi government, Saudi Arabia and wealthy Gulf states lined up behind the bloody coup. They promised to provide a combined 12 billion dollars in financial assistance and offered to bail out the military regime in case the west refused to finance it. The demurring on the part of Washington was seen as another unfriendly act. Exceptionally tough language was directed against Washington’s condemnation of the coup by King Abdullah, who declared that “the kingdom stands …against all those who try to interfere with its domestic affairs” and charged that criticism of the army crackdown amounted to helping the “terrorists”.

America’s change of policy on Syria was another disappointment to Riyadh. Washington, which had first encouraged the religious militants sent in to fight the pro Iran government of Bashar al Assad, started having second thoughts after the Al Qaeda related groups assumed the dominant position in the resistance. Finally belying expectation of its Saudi allies the US suddenly decided to look for a peaceful resolution of the issue of chemical weapons. This was seen as another unkind cut.

It is worrisome however that the PML-N government fails to realise the possible consequences of the bear hug for Pakistan. The sudden shift in Pakistan’s policy of non-intervention in Syrian affairs announced to please Saudia Arabia indicates that the Sharif administration is willing to play in the hands of the Saudi government.

One expects the opposition in parliament to seek details from the government about commitments made to the Saudi delegation during the talks. The new Saudi regional defence doctrine is focused on resisting Iranian influence in the Middle East and maintaining Saudi influence in the region through interventions. Riyadh wants to use its petrodollars to fulfill the ambition of becoming the Middle East hegemon. The first Saudi choice for a possible collaborator is Pakistan which is a nuclear power and has the seventh largest army in the world in terms of active troops. The Saudi dream is to discover and promote another Saddam Hussain to fight Iran on its behalf and someone that may help the Saudis continue as before on misadventures in the region through violent terrorist groups. The list of Saudi misadventures is long and painful. Along with Kuwait, Riyadh financed Saddam Hussein’s eight-year war against Iran. When an overconfident Hussein invaded Kuwait in 1990, they pleaded for a US invasion to drive him back. After US forces invaded once more in 2003 to overthrow Hussein, the Saudis backed Sunni groups in Iraq. In Syria Riyadh has bankrolled militants including al Qaeda to overthrow Bashar al Asad considered as Iran’s ally. The Saudis back Sunni forces in Lebanon against the pro-Iran Hezbollah. They support Sunni extremists in Iraq who keep the pot of civil war boiling to bring down the Shiite majority rule. Orgnisations like Pakistan’s Lashkr-e Jhangvi get sustenance from Saudi Arabia and attack the Shia community in pursuit of the anti-Iran agenda. The Saudi crown prince jubilantly announced in Islamabad that both countries had agreed to deepen their defence cooperation and support each other’s position on regional issues, including Syria and Afghanistan. Speaking at a media conference after completing his engagements, the visiting minister said: “Saudi Arabia and Pakistan enjoy commonality of views and understanding on regional peace.”

The Saudi administration would like Pakistan to support and protect its proxies like Jundullah and Jaishul Adl which continue to launch attacks inside Iran. In the latest incident the latter abducted four Iranian guards and allegedly took them inside Pakistan. The idea was that in case Iran retaliated it would lead to a confrontation between the two countries which suits Riyadh.

Islamabad must avoid repeating past mistakes. No Pakistani military mission abroad should be used directly or indirectly against local dissidents or another friendly country. In 1970 Brigadier Ziaul Haq played a key role in planning the offensive against the Palestinians in Jordan that led to what is known as Black September. Zia was at the time leading a training mission in Jordan. More recently retired Pakistani security personnel were employed by Bahrain to quell the popular and widespread agitation for reforms by local Shia population. Both incidents caused resentment in the Arab world against Pakistan.

The Saudi dream is to discover and promote another Saddam Hussain to fight Iran on its behalf and someone that may help the Saudis continue as before on misadventures in the region through violent terrorist groups. Pakistan, which is already facing India on one border and Afghanistan and Taliban on the other, can ill afford to turn Iran into an enemy and thus make a border which has been peaceful since 1947 into another security nightmare.

The country is already finding it hard to cope with the results produced by Saudi funded seminaries and clerics in the form of terrorist networks. With increasing Saudi influence on government policies more seminaries of the sort propagating against democracy and encouraging militancy are likely to be created. Similarly the country cannot afford the repetition of Dr Abdul Qadeer Khan’s transfer of sensitive technology to other countries. One expects the opposition in parliament to seek details from the government about commitments made to the Saudi delegation during the talks.

Prince Alwaleed bin Talal, the Saudi financier and a member of the House of Saud, told the Wall Street Journal: “Nawaz Sharif, specifically, is very much Saudi Arabia’s man in Pakistan.” Only after the details of the agreements become public will it be possible to determine the truth or otherwise of the claim by the insider.