Pakistan: Preparing for civil war

On Thursday, Feburay 13th, the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) claimed responsibility for a suicide attack in Karachi that killed 12 policemen and injured 60 others, ostensibly as revenge for the killing of a TTP commander last May. On Friday the TTP negotiating committee said it was almost ready for a ceasefire if the government promised not to take any military action. We don’t yet know what Satuday will bring, but it seems clear that no matter what the government does the TTP will find excuses to continue attacks. Despite a halt in drone strikes since December and no action by the military since mid-January, the TTP claim they don’t tust the army and trust the government little more — but the question remains, should we trust them? If the continuous stream of terrorist attacks is any indication we have no reason to. Meanwhile members of the TTP negotiating team have openly declared their support for the militants and made claims about hundreds of suicide bombers ready to unleash terror. Naked threats and the continuing use of force have made the TTP strategy painfully clear, and the government can no longer afford to stick its head in the sand about them; the TTP are using the time and space from negotiations to prepare while continuing to sow terror, essentially weakening the government’s resolve to fight back. At the same time, negotiations have given them a platform to preach their ideology on mainstream media, lambasting the government and army while claiming to be fighting for constitutional rights. Attacks on infrastructure threaten to destroy what little Pakistan has built over the last 50 years and turn the country into another Afghanistan. A country without infrastrucure would be that much easier for the TTP to control, which is why they target civil and military installations necessary to maintain effective state control. The TTP vision of the future is this: a broken army that is too afraid to attack because of the possibility of widespread urban warfare; co-option of the state by forcing their representatives into the highest official positions; control of the courts through the same method; enforcement of their ideology on the streets with bands of armed thugs. With this in mind, the TTP aim to provoke a full scale civil war across the country, eventually letting them control whatever battered remnants remain after thousands have died. From its cowed statements the government hasn’t woke up to this fact yet though awareness might be growing — slowly — as Interior Minister Chaudry Nisar’s statement yesterday shows. However, with the TTP preparing for full scale war, time is of the essence and the government must wake up before it is too late and the country is in a position that makes the last few years look like Eid by comparison.