Pakistan needs to be wary of Saudi intentions

Casting around for allies

After differences with the US over Syria, Egypt and Iran and an expected decline in petroleum profits, Saudi Arabia is looking towards east. After visiting Pakistan the Saudi Crown Prince is expected to visit India and Japan.

Pakistan and Saudi Arabia have signed a number of MoUs. The significance of some is clear while that of others will manifest itself in days to come. There are issues over which the interests of Pakistan coincide with those of Riyadh. There are others where the interests conflict. Pakistan must jealously guard its national interests and agree to nothing, openly or secretly, that has the potential to harm Pakistan’s national interests.

With US developing its shale oil reserves and a number of other countries following suit, they would depend less on petroleum inflows from the Kingdom, thus decreasing the Saudi ability to dictate the OPEC oil prices. Saudi Arabia can thus no more depend on entirely oil revenues. It is therefore looking for more sources of revenue including investments abroad. The country has already made investments in Near East and is trying to discover possible avenues of investment in countries like Pakistan, India and Japan. Here the interests of Pakistan and Saudi Arabia converge. There is however little possibility of any large scale private sector investment from the Kingdom as long as terrorist activities continue and power and gas remain scarce. What remains to be seen is if Saudi government will agree to make big investments in Pakistan. Currently whatever trade Pakistan has with Saudi Arabia is skewed in favour of the later. Will the two countries devise ways to reduce the imbalance? There is a perception that if the Kingdom transfers only a fraction of its funds invested in the western banks, the country would be rid of some of its forex headaches.

Saudi Arabia is keen to reach an understanding with Pakistan on regional security. This is a tricky subject. It must have come up during COAS Raheel Sharif’s Saudi visit. On Monday the Crown Prince had yet another meeting with Gen Sharif and CJCSC Gen Mahmud. While Riyadh is free to hold whatever views it likes about Turkey and Iran, no regional security arrangement at the cost of Turkey or Iran will be in Pakistan’s interest which has good relations with both. Similarly Pakistan must in no way be a part of meddling in Arab conflicts and decline to offer any support in suppressing the dissent in the Arab lands. Pakistan may sell weapons to any country but has to refrain from becoming a party in any conflict in the region under whatsoever slogan. Pakistan and Saudia are sovereign countries. It is facetious to maintain, as Defence Minister Khwaja Asif has done, that the defence of Pakistan and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is the same thing.