Why Afghans fear their own election

By Wahab Raofi

Free elections are touted by the West as a major component of democracy and a panacea for solving social and political problems in developing countries. Eight Middle Eastern nations have elections scheduled this year and most citizens have great expectations about exercising their right to vote. But not all Afghans share this optimism; most are apprehensive or even fearful about the April presidential election for good reason.

First, the timing is problematic. The election precedes the drawdown of coalition forces at the end of this year. President Barack Obama’s “zero option” threat (a complete withdrawal of troops) in retaliation for President Hamid Karzai’srefusal to sign the Bilateral Security Agreement has created an environment of fear and uncertainty. Since the United States’ liberation of Afghanistan from the yoke of the Taliban in 2001, most Afghans believe their country is on the right track. Despite some obvious shortcomings (particularly governmental corruption and a lack of tangible achievement), Afghans are much better off than before. They’re pragmatic in their expectations and remain painfully aware of fact that their system cannot stand on its own without foreign financial and military support.

Afghans fear that the “zero option” will end up like a mathematic formula, wherein every number multiplied by zero will equal zero. Hard-won achievements – such as women’s rights, freedom of expression, relative stability and a newly emerged middle class which can foster prosperity and maintain democratic institutions – will fray.

The presence of the U.S. bases also is seen by many Afghans as a hedge against hostile neighbors, each trying to gain influence by using proxies.

Moreover, hundreds of thousands of Afghans working with Americans will lose their jobs. They view the U.S. presence as a guarantor, though it also may be a psychological crutch. Unquestionably, when the flow of U.S. dollars ebbs, the Afghan economy will suffer.

Most Afghans want their government to sign the BSA, but Afghans who quietly decry their president’s refusal to sign the BSA are very different from Ukrainians who openly protest their president’s decision not to sign a deal with European Union. So why aren’t Afghans taking to the streets to demand the resignation of Karzai for not signing the BSA? It’s because Afghans are tired of war. They’d rather keep the status quo and not be blamed for creating an unpredictable situation that could end up worse. But, like Ukrainians, most Afghans want to join the free world and enjoy economic prosperity and political stability. And then there’s the Taliban factor. To Afghans, the withdrawal of U.S. forces means the return of the Taliban. Afghans know that their nascent security force is no match for ideologically driven Taliban fighters. The Taliban’s return looms like a Sword of Damocles over the Afghan nation’s collective head.

Afghan elites already have started moving their money out of the country. Intelligence briefs from The Soufan Group report that wealthy Afghans have found Dubai a safe haven for transferring huge amounts of cash out of country. In a telephone interview with the BBC, a Taliban spokesman who uses the name of Zabiullah Mujahid assured victory after the withdrawal of NATO force. He condemned the election as an instrument of foreign occupiers and shows no desire for participation. The election also leaves Afghans unsettled because there appears no viable alternative to Karzai, who is not eligible to run. From the list of 11 presidential candidates approved by the independent election committee, Abdullah Abdullah has risen to the top. He was a member of the Northern Alliance that toppled the Taliban with the backing of the U.S. Abdullah was appointed Minister of Foreign Affairs during the Bonn Conference but has been at odds with Karzai and was forced out in 2005.

If he wins, the country could slip into civil war. He figures to go after Karzai with a vengeance. Michael O’ Hanlon, a director with the Brookings Institution, wrote in a commentary published by USA Today that if Abdullah wins, it will trigger an array of legal actions against Karzai. As a result, the county would be divided into Karzai Pashtun supporters against Abdullah and his Tajik base. The Taliban view Abdullah as a sworn enemy, a member of the Northern Alliance. Rather than enter into negotiations with him, they will intensify their attacks on U.S.-funded Afghan security forces. No other candidate brings the charisma and public support Karzai enjoyed. Yes, he flip-flops on policy and his administration has been accused of corruption, but if the Afghan constitution allowed him a third term, he would win easily over the current candidates.

Karzai symbolizes peace and harmony. He came to power at a time when Afghanistan was basically a concentration camp under the Taliban regime. Afghans owetheir freedom to him, and many see him as a liberator. If Karzai signs the BSA before the election, it may generate a small boost of enthusiasm for the upcoming election, but if a real political solution is not found soon, the election looms as nothing more than a new chapterof uncertaintyin Afghanistan’s endless war.

And if Karzai refuses to sign the BSA and the West abandons this country, it will no longer matter who occupies the presidential palace. U.S. Gen. Stanley McChrystal’s prophecy will become a reality: Afghanistan will descend into a civil war. Afghans will vote with their feet, flee their country in large numbers and trigger yet another refugee crisis.