A grim warning of the risks in Afghanistan

What's happening in the western Iraqi province of Anbar could easily be repeated in Afghanistan by the end of this year

The takeover of the western Iraqi province of Anbar by al-Qaeda militants should serve as a timely reminder to Western leaders of the risks they will face as they seek to wind down combat operations in Afghanistan by the end of this year. During the bitter sectarian violence that erupted following the overthrow of Saddam Hussein in 2003, cities such as Fallujah and Ramadi, located in the heart of Anbar, became synonymous with the bloody insurgency waged by al-Qaeda and other militant Islamist groups to prevent the West from achieving its goal of establishing democratic government. The insurgents were eventually defeated when the local Sunni Muslim tribes turned on these fanatical interlopers during the so-called Anbar Awakening, and helped the US-led coalition to defeat the extremists and drive them out of the country. So the fact that the black flag of al-Qaeda is again to be found flying over these Sunni strongholds constitutes a serious setback for all those who seek a peaceful, democratic and prosperous future for Iraq.

There are many factors that have contributed to this unwelcome development, not least the failure of Nouri al-Maliki, Iraq’s Shia prime minister, to complete the delicate process of reconciliation, bringing Kurds and Sunnis back into the political mainstream. This has opened the way for Sunni extremists fighting in neighbouring Syria to re-establish themselves in Iraq’s Sunni heartlands, with all the implications that could have for the country’s future stability.

Nor has the situation been helped by President Obama’s cavalier decision to withdraw American forces in 2011, without reaching an agreement with Baghdad that would have allowed the US to maintain a residual military presence, thereby enabling Washington to continue to influence Iraq’s political development. Mr Obama likes to tell supporters that ending the deeply unpopular Iraq war was one of his key foreign policy successes: but it will not look like that if al-Qaeda regains control of territory where thousands of young Americans lost their lives fighting to bring peace to Iraq.

As Western forces prepare to withdraw from Afghanistan this year, there are mounting concerns that the mission there could suffer a similar fate. A recent National Intelligence Assessment published in Washington predicts that, in the absence of political reconciliation with the Taliban, insurgent groups are likely to reoccupy territory vacated when international forces complete their withdrawal. Western leaders must ensure that the sacrifices made in Afghanistan have not been in vain. Otherwise, as with Iraq, their failure could soon come back to haunt them.