Pakistan: North Waziristan cauldron

IT was not the first time a Pakistani military post was attacked and our soldiers were killed by militants in North Waziristan. But the retaliation by the troops to last week’s ambush in Mirali that reportedly killed five soldiers was indeed swift and fierce. Heavy fighting involving artillery fire and helicopter gunships left dozens of alleged militants killed.

That was not entirely unexpected from an army constantly under insurgent attack and with an escalating number of casualties. The incident reflected the growing frustration in the military command over the prolonged indecision of the national leadership on how to deal with militant sanctuaries in the region presenting the biggest threat to internal security.

There has been a marked increase in the frequency of IED attacks in recent days as the government begs the militants for peace. The new army chief’s tough warning that terrorist attacks would not be tolerated anymore indicates that patience is running out. But such punitive action in the absence of a clear counterinsurgency strategy has its downside too. The relentless artillery pounding of terrorist hideouts located amidst civilian population centres carries the risk of collateral damage. It is therefore not surprising that the offensive may have cost some civilian deaths as alleged by some political parties. The fierce fighting also forced many to flee their homes evoking angry protests feeding into the militants’ narrative against military action.

What is more worrisome, however, is the intriguing silence of the political leadership on the brazen militant attacks and the military reaction. This ambivalence virtually de-legitimises the army’s action against the attackers. Instead, there is ever-stronger rhetoric about talks with the Taliban and the army’s withdrawal from the tribal areas. This apologetic stance adds to the militant propaganda campaign. In fact some political parties such as the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf and other right-wing groups echo the militant version of events in North Waziristan adding to the prevalent confusion over the gravity of the terrorist threat. The latest surge in attacks on Pakistani forces in North Waziristan appears to be a calculated move by the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan to bring a weak-kneed national leadership under further pressure. Reports emanating from the region suggest that the TTP is preparing to launch a new wave of terrorist strikes against security forces in North Waziristan. The group has warned the tribesmen to leave their homes. Mullah Fazlullah, the new TTP chief, who is now believed to have shifted his base from across the border in Afghanistan’s Kunar province to North Waziristan, has vowed to escalate attacks on the Pakistan Army.

While the TTP plans to engage security forces in new guerilla warfare, the national leadership does not seem to have a clear strategy to respond to this threat. Last week, the top civil and military leadership approved a much-delayed draft of a new national security policy. But there’s a long way to go before it is implemented.

Although its contours are not clear, officials claim the proposed policy provides a comprehensive strategy to deal with militancy and terrorism. The policy awaits cabinet approval. It is still to be seen how effective this will prove. Interior Minister Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan said the new policy assigns top priority to dialogue with the TTP and the use of force would be the last option. There is certainly no disagreement on peace talks with the TTP or any other group. But the main issue is whether the militants are interested in constructive dialogue and will give up violence.

It is not the first time that peace offers have been made by the government. In fact, more than half a dozen peace deals were signed with militants in the past. None of them have worked — the peace accords were used by militants to regroup and expand their activities.

One such deal which is not effective anymore was reached in North Waziristan with local tribesmen in 2006. Thus the arguments by the PML-N government and political leaders like Imran Khan that peace has never been given a chance are flawed. It is also not true that the peace deals were broken because of US drone strikes.

The government seems to be stuck on the dialogue mantra despite its repeated rejection by Mullah Fazlullah and leaders of other TTP factions. Dismissing the concept of peace talks immediately after the government’s announcement of using force as a last resort, Shahidullah Shahid, a spokesman for the TTP, warned that the insurgents were ready for battle. How long will the government keep begging for talks while the TTP keeps blowing up our soldiers with IEDs and killing innocent people? What is most dangerous is the narrative adopted by some political leaders that talks were the only option. It does not only breed inaction, it also legitimises militant violence.

There is a total consensus among security officials that North Waziristan has become the epicentre of militancy threatening national as well as regional security. Almost all major terrorist attacks in Pakistan in recent times have roots in the region. There is no way Pakistan can effectively fight terrorism without eliminating the militant training camps based there.

The rapidly deteriorating security situation in North Waziristan presents a defining challenge for the country’s new civilian and military leadership. Failing to confront this effectively will have serious consequences not just for Pakistan’s national security, but for regional peace as well.