The much-delayed All-Parties Conference on national security, finally held on Monday, seemed to confirm that we have run out of ideas on how to deal with the Taliban. The joint declaration issued after the APC was merely a reiteration of talking points that our politicians have been reciting for years. Drone attacks were condemned as illegal, terrorism was blamed on blowback from the Afghan war and, in the only major policy announcement, all the major political parties endorsed holding talks with the Taliban. The idea of negotiating with the Taliban is neither original nor one that is certain to work; it is simply the last option left for a state that is weary of a war it hasn’t been able to win. The idea of talks, though approved at the APC, still has a long way to go before it becomes reality. So far the TTP has shown no inclination to negotiate with the government or agree to cease attacks if and when talks are held. The government has also not told us what conditions it will agree to and whether they will include completely unacceptable points like completely withdrawing the military from the tribal areas rather than agreeing to a temporary ceasefire. The devil, as always, is in the details but as yet we have only been given a vague outline. Only once we know what the government is willing to give up can we decide if talks are a good idea.
On the matter of drones, the APC was correct in pointing out their illegality and saying that the matter will be taken to the UN. But we should not delude ourselves into thinking that will amount to any more than a PR exercise. The UN has been powerless as the US readies itself to go to war in Syria; it certainly won’t be able to stop drone attacks. The APC also devoted some time to the law-and-order problems in Karachi and Balochistan but had little to say beyond recommending that the provincial governments use their authority to tackle those situations. We do not as yet know what the intelligence chiefs told the political parties at the APC since those sessions were conducted in-camera. As news trickles out it will be interesting to know if the military is also keen on negotiations. Past experience shows that talks with the Taliban are at best a short-term, stopgap measure. Neither the government nor the military has been able to explain why this time things will be different.
Tuesday, September 10, 2013
Pakistan: All talk, for now
The much-delayed All-Parties Conference on national security, finally held on Monday, seemed to confirm that we have run out of ideas on how to deal with the Taliban. The joint declaration issued after the APC was merely a reiteration of talking points that our politicians have been reciting for years. Drone attacks were condemned as illegal, terrorism was blamed on blowback from the Afghan war and, in the only major policy announcement, all the major political parties endorsed holding talks with the Taliban. The idea of negotiating with the Taliban is neither original nor one that is certain to work; it is simply the last option left for a state that is weary of a war it hasn’t been able to win. The idea of talks, though approved at the APC, still has a long way to go before it becomes reality. So far the TTP has shown no inclination to negotiate with the government or agree to cease attacks if and when talks are held. The government has also not told us what conditions it will agree to and whether they will include completely unacceptable points like completely withdrawing the military from the tribal areas rather than agreeing to a temporary ceasefire. The devil, as always, is in the details but as yet we have only been given a vague outline. Only once we know what the government is willing to give up can we decide if talks are a good idea.
On the matter of drones, the APC was correct in pointing out their illegality and saying that the matter will be taken to the UN. But we should not delude ourselves into thinking that will amount to any more than a PR exercise. The UN has been powerless as the US readies itself to go to war in Syria; it certainly won’t be able to stop drone attacks. The APC also devoted some time to the law-and-order problems in Karachi and Balochistan but had little to say beyond recommending that the provincial governments use their authority to tackle those situations. We do not as yet know what the intelligence chiefs told the political parties at the APC since those sessions were conducted in-camera. As news trickles out it will be interesting to know if the military is also keen on negotiations. Past experience shows that talks with the Taliban are at best a short-term, stopgap measure. Neither the government nor the military has been able to explain why this time things will be different.
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